OK, after the last price increase it seems clear to me that the price wants to retest the ATH/double top at ~$1150.
In my opinion there are two possible outcomes:
- a triple top. Its a possibility that the bullish sentiment is not strong enough to break the ATH. I know kwukduck is one of these nordic guys in the forest, but what he said in
this post is partly true: Bitcoin's fundamentals are pretty weak at this moment. There are, at least, no fundamental bullish indicators like a Segwit adoption in the near future or a working LN.
- we break the ATH, but crash hard after a fast hype-like rally up to about $2000. That was my prediction in late December that didn't hold true (we crashed earlier but not so hard). It is based on the hypothesis that there is a strong bullish sentiment now based on the belief that the "halving" last year has a long-term bullish incidence on the price, like it occured in 2013. But the sentiment could abruptly turn bearish because I expect a transaction volume explosion in such a rally, and Bitcoin's not ready for it at the moment with its full blocks.
PS:
MtGox's ATH was $1242 according to Bitcoinity.