Topic: If you were Tycho, would YOU fork it? (Read 2785 times)
Don't forget Tycho has partners. He's not the only one responsible for deepbit.
If I were Tycho I would buy the entirety of the internet.
just wanted to bump this once
as it's getting stale
I like how it's almost split 50/50
as it's getting stale
I like how it's almost split 50/50
Would double spending be illegal under US law? If bitcoin is classed as a currency would it be considered forgery?
Illegal? No. Bitcoins aren't recognized as "currency" so there is no US law governing their use. You could claim fraud, but fraud requires someone to be harmed, no one is harmed when a coin is double spent. You still got your coin, it's just that he didn't lose it. Welcome to digital currencies.
If bitcoin were classified by the US Government as a currency, then maybe forging the block chain and validating double spends would be counterfeiting.
We're a LONG way from any of the above being law. And that would only be a US law.
I don't get how chain forking and double spending are related each other, can someone please enlighten me?
EDIT: Upon further readings, i got that. NVM.
EDIT: Upon further readings, i got that. NVM.
Would double spending be illegal under US law? If bitcoin is classed as a currency would it be considered forgery?
If I were tycho I'd wait. 50% is a terrible time to start forking, perilously close to having authority removed from me. If my pool were still growing as his is, with no reason to see it slowing I'd let my pool grow larger and larger. When I had assumed a large enough safety margin, and people felt all safe and comfortable since I didn't do anything for a long time after 50%, then and only then would I consider any shenanigans.
Though to be fair Tycho is making about $2500 / day right now, so he's sitting pretty. He only has to wait until he gets tired of all this pool operator bitcoin nonsense to start cashing out.
EDIT: Sorry $3,250 / day.
Though to be fair Tycho is making about $2500 / day right now, so he's sitting pretty. He only has to wait until he gets tired of all this pool operator bitcoin nonsense to start cashing out.
EDIT: Sorry $3,250 / day.
Ummm no he is not making near that much. The pool makes about 3,700 BTC a day at given rates.
Deepbit takes about 1.5% of that (3% fee, but there are no stale shares or invalid blocks which accounts for about 1.5%).
1.5% of 3,700 = 55.5 BTC a day.
55.5 BTC a day x day average of $26 = $1443
He claims to have a couple other people involved and they are sharing profits...
Also you are forgetting the costs of running several high end servers.
Depending on how much he is sharing with others he could be making as little as $400-500 a day, or as much as $1000 or so. Still a lot of money IMO, but not NEAR to how much you think he is making.
Yay, finally someone with different numbers. Much more fun!
Using the current data of difficulty 567358 and deepbits reported pool rate of 2366GHash/sec that calculates to 4,175 Bitcoins a day on average (currently deepbit is on a very unlucky streak so it is only doing about 3450 bitcoins a day, but that's just a bad luck patch).
So with a current mtgox price of $26 and average coin rate of 4175 that's $26 * 4175 * .03 = $3,256. If you count all the pay-per-share people that he rakes 10% off the top of, and doesn't pay out to for solved blocks that actually gets quite a bit higher. But I don't have his statistics on what that is.
If his bad luck stream continues then yes he will make less than $3,256, but higher hashrate typically yields lower variance, so he should be closer to the average than most.
The lack of invalids stales and whatnot is a fair point, but I'm going to guess that the PPS crowd offsets this and leave my numbers above.
I never said that was net, that's just how much the operator pulls off the top. If someone asks you how much you make at your job you don't immediately calculate all your bills and taxes and costs before answering do you? I have no idea how many people he is working with nor his costs, and never made any claim to that effect. Regardless he is doing very well for himself. Good for him too.
with how well hes doing.. there would be no sense in forking bitcoin... he makes enough money to cover himself and his costs. He is well invested in bitcoin, and is likely investing elsewhere.... and people know him enough to probably hunt his ass down and crucify him if he ever did it 
seriously, these threads are dumb.
seriously, these threads are dumb.
If I were tycho I'd wait. 50% is a terrible time to start forking, perilously close to having authority removed from me. If my pool were still growing as his is, with no reason to see it slowing I'd let my pool grow larger and larger. When I had assumed a large enough safety margin, and people felt all safe and comfortable since I didn't do anything for a long time after 50%, then and only then would I consider any shenanigans.
Though to be fair Tycho is making about $2500 / day right now, so he's sitting pretty. He only has to wait until he gets tired of all this pool operator bitcoin nonsense to start cashing out.
EDIT: Sorry $3,250 / day.
Though to be fair Tycho is making about $2500 / day right now, so he's sitting pretty. He only has to wait until he gets tired of all this pool operator bitcoin nonsense to start cashing out.
EDIT: Sorry $3,250 / day.
Ummm no he is not making near that much. The pool makes about 3,700 BTC a day at given rates.
Deepbit takes about 1.5% of that (3% fee, but there are no stale shares or invalid blocks which accounts for about 1.5%).
1.5% of 3,700 = 55.5 BTC a day.
55.5 BTC a day x day average of $26 = $1443
He claims to have a couple other people involved and they are sharing profits...
Also you are forgetting the costs of running several high end servers.
Depending on how much he is sharing with others he could be making as little as $400-500 a day, or as much as $1000 or so. Still a lot of money IMO, but not NEAR to how much you think he is making.
Somewhat offtopic: Why do people keep quoting my own math back to me in responses to me? If I said he makes a million a year, you don't need to prove to me that he makes a million a year.
because your math is the only reason, if you were a singer, you won't cut off your own tongue...
Somewhat offtopic: Why do people keep quoting my own math back to me in responses to me? If I said he makes a million a year, you don't need to prove to me that he makes a million a year.
Dude you don't understand, the point is, you did the math wrong.
Elephants * bananas + apples = Monkeys
Barracudas + Battlefield 3 - Dinosaurs = Humans
You take Humans/Monkeys = Rise of the Apes (Planet of the Apes Prequel)
Then you add Jeff Goldblum
And you take the negative Rotten Tomatoes score and add Macaroni and Cheese and a tub of ice cream.
After you vomit and cry yourself to sleep that night, you wake up and remember
Tycho is making bazillions in Chinese Yuan off of Deepbit.
That is all.
Fair answer.
Just for fun though I was curious how much Yuan that would actually be.
1,000,000.00 USD = 6,476,805.95 CNY. Tycho can have one hell of a party in china.
Somewhat offtopic: Why do people keep quoting my own math back to me in responses to me? If I said he makes a million a year, you don't need to prove to me that he makes a million a year.
Dude you don't understand, the point is, you did the math wrong.
Elephants * bananas + apples = Monkeys
Barracudas + Battlefield 3 - Dinosaurs = Humans
You take Humans/Monkeys = Rise of the Apes (Planet of the Apes Prequel)
Then you add Jeff Goldblum
And you take the negative Rotten Tomatoes score and add Macaroni and Cheese and a tub of ice cream.
After you vomit and cry yourself to sleep that night, you wake up and remember
Tycho is making bazillions in Chinese Yuan off of Deepbit.
That is all.
I don't see how anyone in their right mind would do smth like this. If he did people would surely switch, I don't think that can be covered by double-spends.
Somewhat offtopic: Why do people keep quoting my own math back to me in responses to me? If I said he makes a million a year, you don't need to prove to me that he makes a million a year.
So other people can see it.
And if we had this conversation yesterday it would be less than $800,000 per year.
Somewhat offtopic: Why do people keep quoting my own math back to me in responses to me? If I said he makes a million a year, you don't need to prove to me that he makes a million a year.
Wow. There's a lot of unethical people here.
Or maybe they're just jealous and projecting.
All hail king [Tyco]!
Or maybe they're just jealous and projecting.
All hail king [Tyco]!
$3K/day is $1M/year, bcpokey, will you burn that many green papers? flames will be spectacular!
Yes I understand I'm the one who did the math. That's why I said that he is sitting pretty for now. But honestly this is a lot of work for a very volatile system. Not to mention it's a very tenuous situation for him to be in. A system that generates $1,000,000 a year attracts a lot of attention (from both underground and above ground sources), not to mention one that controls 30million dollars flowing through it. He might find himself in a situation where he is being bought out or forced out or just wants to stop dealing with all the headaches that this entails, and wants to cash out quick. Who knows. That's why I said for now if I were him I'd sit on my magical money fountain and only when I got sick of the headache bring it all down around me while profiting to the max.
70 Blocks/Day (Generous) * 50 BTC/Block * .03 Fee * 25 USD/BTC * 365 Days = US$958,125
Consider that he's probably just holding a lot of BTC since cashing that all out could make a big dent in the cash holdings of any market.
Not counting server and bandwidth costs which are probably huge.
Not counting possible losses on the PPS side.
Not counting possibly paying other people to help with the system since it's huge for 1 person to run.
Not counting many other factors.
Also consider than introducing a double spend chain is not a quick and easy process. It takes a lot of work.
If I was tired of running it then I would sell it since it has a US$1M/yr valuation, otherwise I enjoy the hell out of running it and watch the success of my labors.
$3K/day is $1M/year, bcpokey, will you burn that many green papers? flames will be spectacular!
Yes I understand I'm the one who did the math. That's why I said that he is sitting pretty for now. But honestly this is a lot of work for a very volatile system. Not to mention it's a very tenuous situation for him to be in. A system that generates $1,000,000 a year attracts a lot of attention (from both underground and above ground sources), not to mention one that controls 30million dollars flowing through it. He might find himself in a situation where he is being bought out or forced out or just wants to stop dealing with all the headaches that this entails, and wants to cash out quick. Who knows. That's why I said for now if I were him I'd sit on my magical money fountain and only when I got sick of the headache bring it all down around me while profiting to the max.
If I was Tycho,
I would secretly start my 2nd pool named something different with 0% fee.
Each of my pool will have 30% of the market, and everyone will feel safe & stop making threads.
But I actually have 60% of the total mining and can fork whatever I want.
It's just me though
I would secretly start my 2nd pool named something different with 0% fee.
Each of my pool will have 30% of the market, and everyone will feel safe & stop making threads.
But I actually have 60% of the total mining and can fork whatever I want.
It's just me though
$3K/day is $1M/year, bcpokey, will you burn that many green papers? flames will be spectacular!
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