Thanks, nice post! I'm not hoping for things, just trying to tell which way the wind is blowing and planning accordingly. More specifically:
1. Depending on how it plays out, it's not guaranteed that the price will rise. It might collapse instead.
Yup, maybe. I have a FAZ hedge for that.
2. Bitcoin is a high tech payment network with hundreds of use cases. Restricting it to this one use case of capital flight is pretty narrow minded and an insult to bitcoin. A real bull would want bitcoin to succeed in its own merits.
I don't want it to be restricted, but that seems to be the dominant use driving the price at the moment. It's certainly not suited to ubiquitous micro-payments in its current form.
3. The price would be much higher if bitcoin went mainstream in a thriving economy with government approval, rather than a negative environment with no spending and only storage. Things would be growing, and money would circulate hundreds of times faster.
Indeed. I'm not actually that concerned about the price, I'm just more relaxed about money since owning bitcoin, especially since the global banking system has been bankrupt since 2008, if not long before. Since we're talking about "hope", I do hope that open source money helps the world economy start to actually recover, rather than just looking like it's growing through governments rapidly printing money and pumping up the share price of failed businesses. But hope is cheap
4. In the case of hyperinflation, the prices of goods is rising in tandem with the bitcoin rise and your actual wealth in terms of what goods you can buy isn't rising as much, if there is even a supply at all. Meanwhile your neighbors are suffering and starving. Heck, you might just starve too.
During periods of hyperinflation money actually flows to assets and goods which keep their value, so demand for bitcoin would probably go up and it's value relative to assets would probably rise quite a bit. I guess we'll find out at some point whether this actually happens or not. I also have a hedge of growing vegetables, which aren't particularly influenced by markets. Hopefully I can offer my neighbours tasty soup.
5. You want to live in a negative and harsh world, where everyone is unhappy and there isn't even anything fun to spend your coins on... If you can even find places to spend them because they're probably illegal. Nobodies quality of life is going up, not even yours. For any advantage due to your bitcoin wealth, there is an equal and opposite disadvantage.
I this a paraphrased quote from the book of revelations?
6. If people get wind of your wealth, they will hate you and your life is in danger.
Yeah, look at all those billionaire bankers getting lynched! Or, sorry, no, they're just fine.
7. You literally want billions of people to suffer just so you can make a profit. You're just like the capitalist pigs and the government and are against all the values that bitcoin stands for. You are despicable.
Yup, people actually longing for disaster to profit should really just get a job at Goldman Sachs and do it professionally. Planning for the inevitable is fair, though, eh?
Go hope for something more productive because you might just get what you wish for.
I hope you have a love evening, sir!