Topic: if you're not buying (Read 3672 times)

A bought one BTC from B for $2, and B bought back the coin for $4, and A bought it back again for $8, and B bought it back again for $16 ... Each time they made 100% return and both of them become rich in the process. The people who holding the BTC feel he is rich since the BTC price is high and he can sell it even higher later, and the people just profited from the trade also become rich and he want to buy again to enjoy the next ride

You might notice that there is only one BTC at any time and they just exchange it for more and more fiat at each trade. So how long the price appreciation will last depends on how much fiat they can put in the trade, before they exhausted most of their fiat reserve, the process will continue

And in current debt driven monetary system, fiat must increase exponentially to support it from collapsing, banks are getting fresh fiat money all the time and there will be people borrow these money to buy coins. Actually these people will become very important customers for banks, because in a mature economy, there will be less company who are willing to borrow

I'm on the same boat. Luckily now my position is as big as I can justify in my portfolio, so I can just sit back, relax and watch what happens. Should I lose my whole BTC investment, I will consider it just like investing in a start up which didn't make it.

Some people think it's too risky to invest right now after this recent surge in price. I think it's to risky not to be invested. Sure the price may go down. The bubble may burst. What if it's only a 3 dollar bubble?
I can sleep better at night if I have a stash of bitcoins. Even if the price is going down... better than I could sleep if I didn't have any and the price was rising, lol.

Doesn't 'rule of thumb' comes out of a sort-of common sense borne of experience?  My problem with this and many of the arguments coming out of 'typical adoption charts' or classic bubble charts etc. is that Bitcoin is too different to anything that has been before for us to be able to be able to reliably pin it to anything of that ilk.

Here's another one:  "If it sounds to good to be true it probably is".  Those who have been around Bitcoin some time have got used to a price range that 'seems' reasonable.  I don't need here to point out what its potential is.  We all know it.  But given that Bitcoin's valuation, should it fulfill anything near its potential is totally off the map by today's price and that we have no way of quantifying the various risks to its future I don't think we have anything other than 'best guesses' as to what today's value should be.

All those saying 'it's definitely overvalued' as with those saying 'no way does its price reflect anywhere near as high as its value' are simply expressing (and trading) their beliefs rather than 'what is'.  Currently I think the former, along with weak hands who just don't have the stomach for it, are the ones causing today's spikes and average price drop.  Good luck to them   I'm tending to think every time an opportunity for a big correction comes along (like today) and the bears aren't jumping on it to plummet the price the less likely it is that we will ever again see prices much lower than what we see today.

good rule of thumb, if the price has gone up at least 50% in the past month, its probably a bubble.

Yep I bought my last batch at 27.0 .. I don't expect to be able to predict any of these slopes so why try.

By the way, I still buy at this level. If it goes down half way, I really couln't care.

All very successful businesses is based upon knowlege, means and ability to take action. Whatever I get from this, I surely deserve it.

Nobody's 'taking' anybody else's money.  At whatever level the 'last ones to convert' happens if they were buying purely in order to make money from increasing BTC value relative to fiat then they will have 'lost'.  They will have made a bad judgement call assuming the future to repeat the past.  However if they are buying Bitcoin for any other reason such as a store of value or in order to use it to buy stuff (which even if those buying today are the 'last ones' is reasonable) they will have not lost.

However the longer and wider the distribution goes on the more robust Bitcoin becomes, the less prone it is to being devalued overnight by one means or another.  The reward for 'early adopters' (whether you're talking 2010/11 folk or today's) will have come from having taken that risk.  People keep knocking hoarders.  With bitcoin being as divisible as it is it REALLY doesn't matter how many people just buy and hold nor does it matter how much they hoard.  The amount that's left, however tiny, is still plenty to be used for trading for day-to-day goods and saving.  It doesn't deprive anyone else of anything. It's all good

I just bought gold with my bitcoins and cashed out from one bull market to another.
Buy I have some bitcoins to play with in case it goes parabolic :-)

But how about extending this thought experiment beyond mere speculative trading? If people kept working and creating new value, and pricing it in btc, wouldn't everyone holding bitcoins become and remain "rich" in the sense that they would be able to exchange them for more and more goods/services?

no, not everyone will be rich. Only everyone reading these forums right now. 

it's a zero-sum game regardless.

say bitcoin were a closed system. no more fiat influx, constant market cap. any gains any trader makes will be another traders' loss. someone selling coins they bought for $5 last summer for $27 picks $22 out of every pocket which bought coins at higher prices.

however -- and this is niko's point as well -- since the market cap is small compared to the potential market cap, there is an influx of fiat which might allow for huge amounts of deflation on the long term which means anyone holding btc now who is still holding btc then will get a really, really good return on that investment.

but even in this case, everyone will not become rich. if you mean everyone who has btc now, then sure, but that's a pitifully small number compared to the amount of people and fiat required to really blow the price that high, and the last ones to 'convert to bitcoin' will be the ones whose money we're taking.

Yes. I will just repeat myself here:

In a debt based fiat money system, it is a zero sum game, your saving comes from another people's debt, so your conclusion is correct

But in a debt free money system like bitcoin, it is totally possible that everyone are rich, since every BTC existed are not a kind of loan, the electricity, time and R&D cost of the mining equipment has all been paid and contains in each BTC, it is debt free and have value coined in, everyone can get BTC with their product/service without incur a debt somewhere else in the society

Ignore the USD exchange rate, that partly depends on the USD supply by FED, do not really represent the real value of BTC, market is discovering that value now

this is true. i concede to this point as well. the post i quoted did not make that important distinction, though.

While your bold statement is correct, it is entirely possible for everyone that reads this forum regularly at this point in time can become rich.  There are a lot more people who haven't even heard of bitcoin yet.

that is profound. i concede

is there free candy and infinite energy, too?

this is such a joke. trading is zero-sum. everyone CANNOT become rich.

still following? take the bulls out of your ears. everyone cannot become rich.

okay, good. hopefully i've gotten to a few of you finally.

The year is 2015, BTC exchange price doubled every 2 month, everyone buying BTC become rich, there are more consumption, more people are quiting their job and retiring, jobless rate down, GDP up, and inflation is low, it even caused deflation because all money are flowing to BTC

There is a shortage of USD, people start to borrow USD to buy BTC. The banks are very happy to issue the loan, this is their first big wave of customer after housing bubble

Finally FED become concerned and start to tighten, banks stopped issuring new loan, people start to sell their BTC to pay back the loan, the BTC price advancing stopped

But since BTC are also traded in other exchanges by that time, US monetary policy only stablized the USD/BTC price, it won't stop other currencies flowing into BTC to chase the wealth effect. As a result, USD/EUR exchange rate increased very quickly, and hurt US export badly, then there will be a G20 meeting, discuss the worldwide monetary tighten strategy...