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Topic: If you're not out, get out. - page 6. (Read 26379 times)

sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
June 12, 2013, 05:53:59 AM
We have to admit at that time, this kind of posts caused discomfort among everybody. BTC had never proved to be able to resist what he was facing: bubble pop followed by slow and continuous decline, negative media exposure, etc... We all knew it was not a "ponzi", but still, it was not empirically proved that it could resist the stress it was under.

This is why I always say that this is no 2011. This time the doomsayers are mocked. Most of the people is sure that BTC will rise again stronger sooner or later, even if it goes to single digits for a while (which won't happen IMO). The ones who sold, are just waiting for cheaper coins to load the truck. The "bitcoin is a ponzi" has empirically proved as a false statement, nobody with half a brain could say such a thing in 2013. In 2011 it was different.

Bubbles have to burst all the way down before growth is resumed. But this time the bottom will be higher than most 2011-butthurt-bears expect.

I agree.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
June 12, 2013, 05:06:02 AM
Yes. Makes sense.
I think the recent 136 is an important level. If it can top it then the bull-market is still very much on. Similarly, if the recent 88 is breached then a real bear-market is underway.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
June 12, 2013, 04:58:40 AM


Someone mentioned it recently, that the 2013 "bubble" deflate is more like the August 2012 shock than the 2011 bubble.
If so, then it could easily oscillate around $100-$120 for the rest of year, only to begin a further climb in 2014.

In that case more than a bubble deflating it would just have been a correction.

Honestly, that could be still possible, but I don't think so - the hype cycle and speculative mania in March-April was so blatant I doubt we won't see further visits to $80, possibly $50, I won't even discard going deeper than $50 for a bit (but not much deeper, and if I'd have to take a bet, I'd bet that we won't go lower than $50).

This hype cycles always work the same, a lot of new guys are attracted by the parabolic growth, fiat start flowing to exchanges like a river in the rain season, and when the price crashes that money flow just slowly drains out... It's a slow process, fiat pours out of the exchanges slowly, but it pours out because so many of the new guys entered the market just for the quick buck.

Still, there is significant % of the guys attracted by the hype that end up understanding BTC, and they fell in love with it... The core of hardcore-believers is growing, even if the fiat is slowly pouring out. So, we will probably see very cheap coins soon, but nevertheless Bitcoin is stronger than ever.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
June 12, 2013, 04:06:28 AM


Someone mentioned it recently, that the 2013 "bubble" deflate is more like the August 2012 shock than the 2011 bubble.
If so, then it could easily oscillate around $100-$120 for the rest of year, only to begin a further climb in 2014.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
June 12, 2013, 03:40:45 AM
Why not get out of US dollar market that depends solely on 70 percent of  American consumers. Smiley Anyways bitcoin was worth nothing when it started and I could read 4 year old literature which pegs bitcoin to 15 dollars. Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Shame on everything; regret nothing.
June 12, 2013, 02:59:05 AM

This is the best call in the entire thread.

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.

Agreed (with your entire post; I just snipped it for readability)

This was shortly before that meelba incident too... or around the same time.  Bitcoinica provided a great service... in a real bear market.  Wonder how Bitfinex is doing...
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
June 12, 2013, 02:58:36 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months Sad

Turn that frown upside down!  This is a happy necrobump!  Grin  Cheesy  Wink

I don't know, people seem to focus too much on OMG LOL 5 DOLLA WAS EXPENSIVE AND NOW ITS 100!!1111 instead of the fact that people who listened, waited for two months and invested only after the long-term sideways motion began and full capitulation phase was reached (1/16) from the top made much much much more money.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Shame on everything; regret nothing.
June 12, 2013, 02:55:16 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months Sad

Turn that frown upside down!  This is a happy necrobump!  Grin  Cheesy  Wink
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1013
June 12, 2013, 02:55:06 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?
Few people in the thread were entirely right. Nagle certainly wasn't.



I'm the original poster in this topic. I called the collapse of Bitcoin on June 11, 2011.  I wrote "Bitcoin, the new "digital currency", looks like a Ponzi scheme. Only Ponzi schemes chart like that. When Ponzi schemes crash, they crash fast, and they crash all the way." "There's no revenue model here. All growth comes only from new investors. This is a bubble in its pure form."

It's been all downhill since then. The price was $17 then. It's dropped $4 per month for the last four months.  It's at $2.52 now.

Our criterion for "Dead" on Downside was when the price was off 90% from the high. Bitcoin is now dead.

We warned you. You didn't listen.

If you have substantial cash in an exchange, get it out now. We're going to find out quite soon which exchanges have all the customer's cash and which don't.
He called bitcoin "dead" $0.52 and 30 days away from the two year low from which we haven't come remotely close to having seen again.

This is the best call in the entire thread.

Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

Enjoy your euphemism. The rest of us are building stuff.

sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
June 12, 2013, 02:53:09 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!

I wish, but it seems that the slide will continue, sudden drops will get corrected to levels only a little bit lower than where we dropped from and this is how it is going to deflate over next months Sad
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Shame on everything; regret nothing.
June 12, 2013, 02:42:23 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?

Yep and it's gonna happen exactly the same way again!  Right now!
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
June 12, 2013, 02:37:29 AM
So they were right? Bubble did not deflate completely and it dropped 2.5 times further down?
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Shame on everything; regret nothing.
June 12, 2013, 02:28:59 AM
There are tons of such doomsayers threads.  It is up to the individual to buy or sell.  Do not get influence by them.

Just want to point out for clarity's sake that this thread was very recently necrobumped from 9/2011
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
June 12, 2013, 02:24:47 AM
We have to admit at that time, this kind of posts caused discomfort among everybody. BTC had never proved to be able to resist what he was facing: bubble pop followed by slow and continuous decline, negative media exposure, etc... We all knew it was not a "ponzi", but still, it was not empirically proved that it could resist the stress it was under.

This is why I always say that this is no 2011. This time the doomsayers are mocked. Most of the people is sure that BTC will rise again stronger sooner or later, even if it goes to single digits for a while (which won't happen IMO). The ones who sold, are just waiting for cheaper coins to load the truck. The "bitcoin is a ponzi" has empirically proved as a false statement, nobody with half a brain could say such a thing in 2013. In 2011 it was different.

Bubbles have to burst all the way down before growth is resumed. But this time the bottom will be higher than most 2011-butthurt-bears expect.
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
June 12, 2013, 02:14:54 AM
There are tons of such doomsayers threads.  It is up to the individual to buy or sell.  Do not get influence by them.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
Shame on everything; regret nothing.
June 12, 2013, 02:13:16 AM
' "The bitcoin's value will inevitably increase." (Bazil). "Regular use of Bitcoins will pick up pace, it's inevitable."  '

These in a mocking tone from the OP are soooooo hilarious to me now  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Anyone reading this:  Nagle apparently hasn't been seen around here for awhile, so I dunno how he/she/it is doing and I genuinely hope it's "not too bad" ...  But it's just awesome on a personal note that for once in my mostly miserable life, I'm able to tell everyone I know and ever knew (about any arbitrary thing) that:  "I Told You So".  In a BIG way  Cheesy

Seriously, I hope Nagle is ok.

Man, necro-bumping is fun!   Grin
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
October 17, 2011, 10:37:06 PM
Looks like volatility is dying down, we're going to be doing the flatline stagnation thing.  Whew.  Time to enjoy a few well-deserved days of no 30% drops.


Yeah, I like the breaks between the drops.  Oh, see you at $1.80 after the next drop.
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
October 17, 2011, 10:09:36 PM
Moreover, it was only a couple of days ago that you could fund your bitcoinica account with BTC (as opposed to money).  Until then it was too much work for me to do that, even though I too was beating the bear drum.

The other problem with shorting: the money making premise is based on the fact that something is overvalued.  When there's no rational tie between pricing and value what's to keep it from becoming vastly more overvalued before it crashes?  5:1 leverage is very much a double edged sword.  You could get a margin call and lose a fortune while still being right.  

Add to that unlimited downside with limited upside and it takes iron discipline to trade short.  A short position is not something you can leave open while not looking.


legendary
Activity: 1692
Merit: 1018
October 17, 2011, 10:09:11 PM
Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

If there had been Bitcoin options in June, offered by a counterparty strong enough to pay off if the price tanked, I would have bought some.

Bitcoinica is only a month old, and already their customers are complaining about troubles getting money out.  I wouldn't deal with any options dealer who didn't have a contractual commitment to settle by day T+3.  I suspect that a lot of people are going to end up holding the bag when the exchanges shut down.

Bitcoin also had a few 25%+ intra day upward swings on the way down too.  Just one or two of those events could have wiped out any position with Bitcoinica.

The market is too small and immature to provide a serious short selling service.  I doubt one will thrive with the current volatility.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
October 17, 2011, 09:40:21 PM
Of course... if either Nagle or Foo was confident in their predictive ability, they would've shorted btc at 5:1 leverage on Bitcoinica and made a fortune. They can still short if they're confident. But I'm guessing they prefer to make predictions without backing them.

If there had been Bitcoin options in June, offered by a counterparty strong enough to pay off if the price tanked, I would have bought some.

Bitcoinica is only a month old, and already their customers are complaining about troubles getting money out.  I wouldn't deal with any options dealer who didn't have a contractual commitment to settle by day T+3.  I suspect that a lot of people are going to end up holding the bag when the exchanges shut down.
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