Here's my logic:
What reveals a lot, is that wire transfers are lagging same as DWOLLA. If DWOLLA was the problem, but nothing else was, and the funds we gave to MtGox were [safely] stored in the bank, the wire withdrawals would be very fast. But since the wires are lagging, it is not unreasonable to say that there is a FRN shortage.
Under which circumstances could the FRN shortage occur? Exchanges are supposed to accept currency from actor A and bitcoin from actor B and match them up with each other, and take % from a trade. Not spend deposits, keep them as-is, even when at times it seems a good idea to use them, because they DO NOT BELONG TO EXCHANGE, exchange is holding on to them for their own safety and that is the only reason and purpose. If that was the way exchanges worked, there would be no circumstance under which either bitcoin or FRN shortage would possibly happen.
Then, how could FRN shortage occur? a) if funds were embezzled in some speculation. Or, b) if some sizable amount of FRNs was sized/frozen.
If there was a seizure, I would see no reason why exchange would not publicly say so. It's not their fault - bank or government took the money. Personally I would be screaming about it on every corner. Do we hear that? I don't. And the reason why is likely because it never happened.
That's my chain of thoughts on the situation, take it or leave it.
They got caught with their pants on the ground...
It was obvious, though they have tried to hide it now, they were paying only the withdraws that matched the income. The only reason to do this is so they could speculate in their own market with the pooled funds to managing the price or for profit. A few large withdraws are making this speculation, closer to fact.
If they are in fact operating that way, it isn't sustainable when income drops. The shortage becomes apparent when large withdraws appear. What's worse is they can't move Bitcoins they bought if it means selling them for a loss. This effectively locks those coins with a negative value, only giving them access to the break even and positive inventory. The more large withdraws that come in will subdue them until they get choked out.
Right now for Mt. Gox the best strategy is to ignore detractors, respond only to valid claims and focus on righting the listing ship.
