I'm the unluckiest lucky person in the world - page 2.

DamienBlack

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Quote from: Synaptic on June 18, 2011, 08:54:08 AM

Quote from: hugolp on June 18, 2011, 08:46:21 AM

Quote from: Synaptic on June 18, 2011, 08:06:13 AM

Also, that probability will still throw huge gains at an agent, followed by an equally brutal dearth of gains, over time.

Look at the incredible luck MtRed mining pool had early on. They're likely in for a long walk of shame when few/no blocks show up for an entire difficulty tier...

If I am not mistaken bitcoin probability is independent from round to round.

You're mistaken. It doesn't matter if each round is discreet. Our probability will always reach a natural distribution.

Unless someone trapped the hashing equivalent of Maxwell's Demon inside one of their GPUs...

Yes, but it is just like rolling a die. The probability will reach a natural distribution, but just because you got three 6's in a row doesn't mean that you are more likely to go on a stretch without 6's in the future.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: hugolp on June 18, 2011, 08:46:21 AM

Quote from: Synaptic on June 18, 2011, 08:06:13 AM

Also, that probability will still throw huge gains at an agent, followed by an equally brutal dearth of gains, over time.

Look at the incredible luck MtRed mining pool had early on. They're likely in for a long walk of shame when few/no blocks show up for an entire difficulty tier...

If I am not mistaken bitcoin probability is independent from round to round.

You're mistaken. It doesn't matter if each round is discreet. Our probability will always reach a natural distribution.

Unless someone trapped the hashing equivalent of Maxwell's Demon inside one of their GPUs...

DamienBlack

jr. member

Activity: 56

Merit: 1

Quote from: hugolp on June 18, 2011, 08:46:21 AM

Quote from: Synaptic on June 18, 2011, 08:06:13 AM

Also, that probability will still throw huge gains at an agent, followed by an equally brutal dearth of gains, over time.

Look at the incredible luck MtRed mining pool had early on. They're likely in for a long walk of shame when few/no blocks show up for an entire difficulty tier...

If I am not mistaken bitcoin probability is independent from round to round.

You aren't mistaken. The original poster was probably just talking in karmic terms.

hugolp

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Radix-The Decentralized Finance Protocol

Quote from: Synaptic on June 18, 2011, 08:06:13 AM

Also, that probability will still throw huge gains at an agent, followed by an equally brutal dearth of gains, over time.

Look at the incredible luck MtRed mining pool had early on. They're likely in for a long walk of shame when few/no blocks show up for an entire difficulty tier...

If I am not mistaken bitcoin probability is independent from round to round.

DamienBlack

jr. member

Activity: 56

Merit: 1

Quote from: MacRohard on June 18, 2011, 08:03:04 AM

Quote from: DamienBlack on June 18, 2011, 03:32:05 AM

So I did the math and given difficulty increases, I was fairly confidant that I would never solve a block with my current hashing power. Working with a pool I expected the limit of bitcoins I would ever make would be between 25 and 35. It seemed that if I solo mined, there was a > 70% chance that I would never solve a single block.

And then I hit one. I was thinking, oh man, guess I got lucky, too bad, hindsight, still unlikely blah blah blah. And then I hit another one...

So now I could have mined 100+ bitcoins, but instead I'll only ever mine about 30. Luck is a cruel, cruel mistress. I still think I made the right choice... maybe.

Actually I think there's a fairly simple explanation for this.

The only way the mining pools can tell if you're cheating them is by randomly sending you a range of work to solve that they already know contains a coin and make sure that you actually find it. Perhaps they do this more frequently when you first join the pool.

I thought mining pool could simply check the nonce I send with their block hash to ensure it is a valid share (at the minimum difficulty), proving that I'm doing work. I don't think they need such tricks.

Synaptic

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Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: MacRohard on June 18, 2011, 08:03:04 AM

Quote from: DamienBlack on June 18, 2011, 03:32:05 AM

So I did the math and given difficulty increases, I was fairly confidant that I would never solve a block with my current hashing power. Working with a pool I expected the limit of bitcoins I would ever make would be between 25 and 35. It seemed that if I solo mined, there was a > 70% chance that I would never solve a single block.

And then I hit one. I was thinking, oh man, guess I got lucky, too bad, hindsight, still unlikely blah blah blah. And then I hit another one...

So now I could have mined 100+ bitcoins, but instead I'll only ever mine about 30. Luck is a cruel, cruel mistress. I still think I made the right choice... maybe.

Actually I think there's a fairly simple explanation for this.

The only way the mining pools can tell if you're cheating them is by randomly sending you a range of work to solve that they already know contains a coin and make sure that you actually find it. Perhaps they do this more frequently when you first join the pool.

Also, that probability will still throw huge gains at an agent, followed by an equally brutal dearth of gains, over time.

Look at the incredible luck MtRed mining pool had early on. They're likely in for a long walk of shame when few/no blocks show up for an entire difficulty tier...

MacRohard

full member

Activity: 212

Merit: 100

Quote from: DamienBlack on June 18, 2011, 03:32:05 AM

So I did the math and given difficulty increases, I was fairly confidant that I would never solve a block with my current hashing power. Working with a pool I expected the limit of bitcoins I would ever make would be between 25 and 35. It seemed that if I solo mined, there was a > 70% chance that I would never solve a single block.

And then I hit one. I was thinking, oh man, guess I got lucky, too bad, hindsight, still unlikely blah blah blah. And then I hit another one...

So now I could have mined 100+ bitcoins, but instead I'll only ever mine about 30. Luck is a cruel, cruel mistress. I still think I made the right choice... maybe.

Actually I think there's a fairly simple explanation for this.

The only way the mining pools can tell if you're cheating them is by randomly sending you a range of work to solve that they already know contains a coin and make sure that you actually find it. Perhaps they do this more frequently when you first join the pool.

triforcelink

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Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: hugolp on June 18, 2011, 03:54:57 AM

Murphy's law: If you would have gone solo, you would have not founded them.

+666

hugolp

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Radix-The Decentralized Finance Protocol

Murphy's law: If you would have gone solo, you would have not founded them.

DamienBlack

jr. member

Activity: 56

Merit: 1

So I did the math and given difficulty increases, I was fairly confidant that I would never solve a block with my current hashing power. Working with a pool I expected the limit of bitcoins I would ever make would be between 25 and 35. It seemed that if I solo mined, there was a > 70% chance that I would never solve a single block.

And then I hit one. I was thinking, oh man, guess I got lucky, too bad, hindsight, still unlikely blah blah blah. And then I hit another one...

So now I could have mined 100+ bitcoins, but instead I'll only ever mine about 30. Luck is a cruel, cruel mistress. I still think I made the right choice... maybe.

Topic: I'm the unluckiest lucky person in the world - page 2. (Read 3573 times)