IMF: War Dims Global Economic Outlook as Inflation Accelerates

stompix

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Quote from: Lucius on April 21, 2022, 06:23:32 AM

We should also not forget that Russia has something else that is traded and that the EU cannot survive, and that is nuclear fuel.

That's not really such a big problem.
There are only 4 states which depend on those, Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Slovakia Czech Republic duo, with less than 10GW, and furthermore, Westinghouse can produce the fuel, is just that all these countries have contracts with Russia and the replacement of fuel was already planned.
Allow Romania to restart all its coal powerplants and there you go, 12 GW capacity with interconnection just in the middle of the problem.

Nuclear fuel will be easy, oil will be tricky, gas is the problem!

Quote from: davis196 on April 21, 2022, 06:34:13 AM

I know that oil prices are a major factor for the inflation,but the global oil prices were moving in the 110-140 USD range during the war in Iraq(2003-2007) and there wasn't such gigantic inflation everywhere around the world back then.There's something wrong with the global economy.

There was less trade being done at that time, look for example the volume in shipping, the war didn't come after a lockdown that fucked the logistic chain forever and still keeps 1/4 of China messed up, and more important that was Irak, it wasn't a clash at the door of the second economy if we count EU as a whole.

davis196

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I don't think that the war in Ukraine is the main cause for the global inflation.
The main cause of the inflation is the quantitative easing made by the big central banks during the pandemic.
The "powers that be" in the western world simply use the war in Ukraine as an excuse for the inflation.
There is a way to fight the current inflation-increasing the interest rates,but the Federal Reserve System doesn't want to increase the interest rates,because this will make the US federal debt more expensive.
I know that oil prices are a major factor for the inflation,but the global oil prices were moving in the 110-140 USD range during the war in Iraq(2003-2007) and there wasn't such gigantic inflation everywhere around the world back then.There's something wrong with the global economy.

Lucius

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Quote from: stompix on April 21, 2022, 04:35:42 AM

Rusia is also trapped in this.
What some guys that claim Russia can cut gas to freeze Europe to death might find shocking is that Russia still pays transit money to Ukraine to deliver gas to Europe! The perfect clusterfuck, wars and diplomacy were far easier in medieval times!

We really live in a strange world where on the one hand there is a life-and-death struggle, and on the other hand the EU is sending weapons to Ukraine and billions of euros to Russia for gas and oil. We should also not forget that Russia has something else that is traded and that the EU cannot survive, and that is nuclear fuel.

A few days ago, a Russian plane flew over several EU and NATO member states and landed in Hungary with a precious cargo. For those wondering why Hungary continues to maintain good relations with Russia, here is the answer - the nuclear power plant in Paks satisfies at least a third of the country's electricity.

This reminds me of the Serbian aggression on Croatia in 1991, when Serbia had an embargo on oil imports - and the Croatian oil company INA sold oil to the aggressor country, which was later confirmed in his book by one of the then president's closest associates Hrvoje Šarinić.

Lubang Bawah

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The first thing that is affected by war is inflation, maybe the first impact will be felt by countries that are at war but this will have a global impact because when there is a war, many things such as production, distribution and so on are disrupted, and what the IMF conveys is of course based on accurate data. because at this time almost countries reported inflation.

stompix

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 21, 2022, 03:42:27 AM

While gas is more difficult to transport - all the pipes kinda end up in Russia (and not Rome) - oil has a wider list of providers, and with Germany announcing they'll get rid of Russian oil imports this year, they pretty much forced Russia rush the sales, hence lowering the price (we'll see in December if it was the typical FUD we also see in Bitcoin markets or not, but for now it started to work).

Hmm, more like every gas pipeline end in Wien Wink

Russia has the same problem as Europe, all their gas can go only to Europe, even if they would tries to sell it to China or India, it's simply impossible, and look what China has to say:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3172028/russian-gas-sales-china-will-not-make-loss-european-markets

Quote

Russia exported 16.5 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas to China in 2021 via pipelines and in the form of liquefied natural gas. There are plans to significantly increase pipeline capacity to almost 100 bcm and boost LNG sales too.
However, Russia is exporting about 170 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to the European markets every year and the prices for the two buyers are “dramatically different”, according to Mitrova.
When the line is in operation by 2026, the annual supply of pipeline natural gas from Russia to China will rise to 48 bcm, nearly five times the 2021 figure.

Rusia is also trapped in this.
What some guys that claim Russia can cut gas to freeze Europe to death might find shocking is that Russia still pays transit money to Ukraine to deliver gas to Europe! The perfect clusterfuck, wars and diplomacy were far easier in medieval times!

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: stompix on April 20, 2022, 11:18:02 AM

That's US-traded gas, and it went down 10% after going up nearly 100% since January, it was a sudden spike now a sudden drop.
Dutch gas Future (which are important for us in the EU) are almost flat.

Sorry, I guess I've rushed it with the link.
But how about this: European Gas Closes at Lowest Since Start of War in Ukraine (I finally found the original news I've read - in Romanian - and it has the link to this Bloomberg article as source).
I mean even your chart shows the price slowly going down. That should maybe call for the fiat printing machine slow down.

Quote from: stompix on April 20, 2022, 11:18:02 AM

But funny enough, the only energy price that goes down the hill is Russian Oil, Espo is $83.15 and Ural is $77.54 per barrel, now almost 40$ cheaper than Brent as Russia runs out of inventory and ships to sell that. Quite the mess isn't it!?!

While gas is more difficult to transport - all the pipes kinda end up in Russia (and not Rome) - oil has a wider list of providers, and with Germany announcing they'll get rid of Russian oil imports this year, they pretty much forced Russia rush the sales, hence lowering the price (we'll see in December if it was the typical FUD we also see in Bitcoin markets or not, but for now it started to work).

el kaka22

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What did people expected? First of all, it is so much connected to each other that it is not even difficult to put them together. Oil is something we use to make fuel for the cars, and cars is the thing we use for driving around ourselves and our items as well.

It means that if we can't have Russian oil, then we can't have cheap prices for oil, if we can't have cheap prices for oil then we will pay a premium amount for ourselves and our items to go around as well, which means that no matter what we are talking about, anything we want to buy that goes from place X to place Y for us to buy, will cost a lot more. This is the trouble, and there is absolutely nothing else you need to know why it is getting worse.

kryptqnick

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It's no surprise that the war will have effect on global economy. It's a generally destabilizing factor for the Western world to the very least, and under the feelings of not being sure in the future, people tend to invest less in it and be more cautious. Also, Ukraine is a breadbasket of many countries, a large agrarian industry. Russia always exports a big bulk of that. Then there are sanctions, which, while aimed at Russia, also of course affect other countries which used to have big economic ties.
Bitcoin does seem to be doing well, and it can help with savings as well as financial transfers, but it can't fix the economy.

skarais

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Quote from: bitmover on April 20, 2022, 06:54:35 AM

As inflation looks to be the worse cause of all this global growth reduction, there might be a new opportunity for bitcoin.

Due to its anti-inflationary, borderless and decentralized nature, bitcoin really looks to be an amazing asset in the context. Bitcoin could be the asset to be used by citizens anywhere, from Russia to Ukraine or even USA, to protect them from war between those nations and the inflation.

Of course bitcoin is supposed to be one of the most helpful assets right now, but after all we weren't created to have the same mindset. People are still thinking about how they can survive, how they can make ends meet and how they can eat and I think bitcoin doesn't necessarily help the majority of people but is more likely to help certain minorities.

Regulations still complicate adoption, while currently only a few countries are starting to adopt them regardless of their ultimate goal. Obviously adoption can continue to increase but I can still say it only helps a certain minority so bitcoin has not been able to fully help many countries to get out of inflation and this problem.

Freeesta

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It seems that sanctions against Russia have such an effect. Covid19 weakened the global economy, now sanctions, perhaps in the future Europe will be drawn into the war and then it will no longer be so important. I think there are many options for the development of events in the near future. Inflation, unemployment, declining living standards are not the worst of the existing scenarios.

riso2015

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Life has been very difficult, our economy has been destroyed because of the Corona virus, plus the Russian war which took a lot of victims, and indirectly affects all countries, two countries are at war but other countries feel the effects of war between two countries, the consequences achieved now we have not been able to rise from adversity and helplessness,
When all this will end??

Fortify

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Quote from: bitmover on April 20, 2022, 06:54:35 AM

Directly from IMF blog, this article explains the revision of global outlook for the upcoming months. They reduced all projections.

Quote

The effects of the war will propagate far and wide, adding to price pressures and exacerbating significant policy challenges.

Global economic prospects have been severely set back, largely because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This crisis unfolds even as the global economy has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic. Even before the war, inflation in many countries had been rising due to supply-demand imbalances and policy support during the pandemic, prompting a tightening of monetary policy. The latest lockdowns in China could cause new bottlenecks in global supply chains.

In this context, beyond its immediate and tragic humanitarian impact, the war will slow economic growth and increase inflation. Overall economic risks have risen sharply, and policy tradeoffs have become even more challenging.

The main cause of projection reduction is the inflation caused by the war on Ukraine.

As inflation looks to be the worse cause of all this global growth reduction, there might be a new opportunity for bitcoin.

Due to its anti-inflationary, borderless and decentralized nature, bitcoin really looks to be an amazing asset in the context. Bitcoin could be the asset to be used by citizens anywhere, from Russia to Ukraine or even USA, to protect them from war between those nations and the inflation.

It's frankly quite amazing that we're in the midst of the largest European war since world war 2, yet the markets are still touching all time highs. There was barely a blip, a drop of 10% after the panic when it started, yet it has already recovered and this war is nowhere near ending while Putin stays in power. It seems the economy is still running on fumes and perhaps the savings certain people were able to store up during Covid. Times are beginning to pinch however, as energy bills are heading up in parts of Europe and there are tax increases all over. It seems we are currently in "purgatory" where everyone still has faith, yet all of the economic winds are facing one direction - towards recession. We might start to see expectation match reality by the end of this year.

amishmanish

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After jungle burns, fire move towards cities. We believe we are immune to what is happening elsewhere, but that's not the case at all and we all will suffer in long rain. The war of today will be the reasons of wars of tomorrow. Be it price rise of shortage of supplies. Inflation is bound to move upwards. How immune we are depends on how much buffer we have. But i believe we are already thinning out

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Quote from: TheNineClub on April 20, 2022, 09:40:28 AM

I would be shocked if we don't enter a recession. We somewhat avoided one in the pandemic, and that's by itself unbelievable, but every economic prediction tells us we are due for another recession, so that, combined with the already fragile state from the impacts of COVID, now we have a global war (and I say global because it impacts all countries on different levels), I just don't see how we can wiggle ourselves outa this one. And maybe we shouldn't. I am not invoking doom and gloom, but it feels like a reset is needed.

We've got so lot of economic setback unnoticed during the on set of the world Corona virus but this was unclear not until now that we all begin to see the outcome, something tells me when US begin to record high inflation rate that and knowing fully that the global economy is majorly dependent of the USD and now that they had a rough experience of looming inflation, the world at large is at ransom, recession is the end result of unstable economy and high inflation rate, i hope there's a way out sooner

stompix

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 20, 2022, 11:03:03 AM

I've read somewhere that the energy prices seem to finally be on a downside trend^*, kinda back to normal. But did they stop the printing machines? Not really.

That's US-traded gas, and it went down 10% after going up nearly 100% since January, it was a sudden spike now a sudden drop.
Dutch gas Future (which are important for us in the EU) are almost flat.

But funny enough, the only energy price that goes down the hill is Russian Oil, Espo is $83.15 and Ural is $77.54 per barrel, now almost 40$ cheaper than Brent as Russia runs out of inventory and ships to sell that. Quite the mess isn't it!?!

Quote from: Moneyprism on April 20, 2022, 10:57:49 AM

Things like this will certainly be inevitable, because with the increasing tensions in Russia-Ukraine, global oil prices are increasingly unstable, and especially western sanctions are worsening the situation,

Oh no, it's the sanctions that are the worst, not Russia invading a sovereign country and killing its citizens.
There is a simple fix, Russia can withdraw their soldier and stop the bombings and killings, easy as pie.

hugeblack

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I do not think that such reports are important and are nothing more than a habit carried out by IMF, but there are many variables that will make these reports ink on paper, the most important of which are:

- Oil and gas prices: Prices are still directly affecting the economy of the oil-exporting and importing countries, and therefore if there is any real change, we will witness price changes.
- Russian war on Ukraine: the continuation of the war will threaten the food security of many countries, which may lead to more geopolitical strikes, which will affect inflation significantly.
- Covid19 pandemic: We cannot deny that the world suddenly forgot that pandemic and it was nothing.

So we are too early for such reports.

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: bitmover on April 20, 2022, 06:54:35 AM

The main cause of projection reduction is the inflation caused by the war on Ukraine.

Actually we're still in the inflation created by the money machine during COVID, which then didn't stop because of the pre-war energy (price) crisis, and now continues because of the war.
I've read somewhere that the energy prices seem to finally be on a downside trend^*, kinda back to normal. But did they stop the printing machines? Not really.

Of course, Bitcoin fixes this Grin

^* This is just one example I've found now: Natural gas drops as much as 11%, pulls back from more than 13-year high

Moneyprism

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Things like this will certainly be inevitable, because with the increasing tensions in Russia-Ukraine, global oil prices are increasingly unstable, and especially western sanctions are worsening the situation, and many other international political problems. So it's only natural that the IMF cut its global economic growth projections.

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Quote from: bitmover on April 20, 2022, 06:54:35 AM

As inflation looks to be the worse cause of all this global growth reduction, there might be a new opportunity for bitcoin.

I think there is some sense in this, since the creation of bitcoin the world has hardly gone into a serious recession even with covid-19 pendamic that changed the focus of many government policies to only health sector and trying to safe lives but with little or no attention to production while there was heavy expenditure than income for nearly two years and yet at this time was the time bitcoin got to its highest level for now. This can be a good reason to say bitcoin may be a safe area of investment rather than fiat that is always inflation risen. Therefore bitcoin may be the new opportunity for investment.

so98nn

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The economy started depriving by the time world hit with pandemic. When world was under strict lockdown, humans were so primitive that everyone started to think its our last day and we might be the next with coronavirus and bed ridden. No one was working except health care workers, remember? There was complete halt to supply chain including the essential items in the initial days of strict lockdown. World stopped paying those billions of dollars worth bills and all sudden the economy went into shock. That was the point when it all started and shares, stocks started venting from the market. So yup, economic crisis was inevitable and RS_UK war is like added spice to it. Lolz

Topic: IMF: War Dims Global Economic Outlook as Inflation Accelerates (Read 143 times)