This is not a good assumption.
Look what happened when GPU mining ramped up after the price bubble in 2011.....everyone and their dog was selling every BTC not nailed down to recover investment.
The same thing will happen with ASIC, at least at first.
Topic: Impact of ASIC on price - page 2. (Read 2070 times)
Well $390K plus electrical costs but the larger issue becomes the 2nd round of Avalon, plus BFL first batch, plus any other competitors. You could see that $390K worst case scenario jumped to something more like $39M over the course of a year. Remember the first batch is the hard part. Once production gets ramped up the sky is the limit. Also it is a sort of sales race as each new miner reduces the value of future sales thus for all competitors the best option is to sell as many units and quickly as possible.
Still I think you may be right I think many miners will hold at least some portion of their coins but I also think you are significantly underestimating the worst case scenario.
Still I think you may be right I think many miners will hold at least some portion of their coins but I also think you are significantly underestimating the worst case scenario.
Many people think the arrival of ASIC will have impact on BTC price because the ASIC buyers will dump their BTC to recoup their investment on ASIC. First of all, I seriously doubt if this may happen because the buyers should be the most hardcore bitcoin believers, which would be more likely to hoard than dump.
However, just assume the worst case. For Avalon, they are selling 300units with $1300 each, ie. $390,000 totally. Assuming the miners want to fully recoup the $390,000, they need to dump about 28,000BTC and push the price down to about $13.61 (based on the current bid wall).
Please remember this is only the worst case. Since only 3600BTC is generated per day, the 28,000BTC will be generated in 8 days even Avalon takes over 100% of the network. Recently there are many 10,000BTC dumps and the market recovered very soon. Selling BTC3600/day for 8 days will be negligible. Not to mention some AISC owners may decide to hoard rather than dump.
However, just assume the worst case. For Avalon, they are selling 300units with $1300 each, ie. $390,000 totally. Assuming the miners want to fully recoup the $390,000, they need to dump about 28,000BTC and push the price down to about $13.61 (based on the current bid wall).
Please remember this is only the worst case. Since only 3600BTC is generated per day, the 28,000BTC will be generated in 8 days even Avalon takes over 100% of the network. Recently there are many 10,000BTC dumps and the market recovered very soon. Selling BTC3600/day for 8 days will be negligible. Not to mention some AISC owners may decide to hoard rather than dump.
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