Not explicitly stated here, but a halving does not reduce the supply as many believe. The supply continues to increase with every block after a halving.
Topic: Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Market Prices (Read 117 times)
Not explicitly stated here, but a halving does not reduce the supply as many believe. The supply continues to increase with every block after a halving.
We can now say if there is limited supply and excess demand prices will keep pushing higher. In this four years gap we see how bitcoin halving affected the price of Bitcoin.
Sorry for being a broken record...
Not explicitly stated here, but a halving does not reduce the supply as many believe. The supply continues to increase with every block after a halving.
Also, it might be better to switch to to a log chart. On your linear chart, the 2011 bubble is undetectable and the 2013 bubble looks insignificant, when they were actually the biggest.
Isn't this too quick? the peak should be happen in this year, while you make a stats using ATH in the last year.
We shouldn't make the same mistake we made sometime around December 2021 After we experienced $69k and price started retracing. Recall during the half that lead to that price pump many predicted bitcoin to hit $100k but rather it retraced and even fell down to $15,500 which happened in 2022.Fourty halving(May 2020)
Small correction it should be fourth halving (April 2024).[/quote]
Thanks for the correction that was an oversight. I am working on a time series model that should make predictions till 2028. It should be dropping in few days
Isn't this too quick? the peak should be happen in this year, while you make a stats using ATH in the last year.
I find something interesting, the first halving happened in November, then July, May and April. November to July is 4 months, July to May is 2 months, May to April is one month. So, the next halving should be 1/2 month from the last halving, it's either April again or late March.
I find something interesting, the first halving happened in November, then July, May and April. November to July is 4 months, July to May is 2 months, May to April is one month. So, the next halving should be 1/2 month from the last halving, it's either April again or late March.
Fourty halving(May 2020)
Small correction it should be fourth halving (April 2024). 
There are Bitcoin halving count down timers.
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
https://watcher.guru/bitcoin-halving
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/bitcoin-halving
https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2028-04-10-12-00-00
You can search for more if you need more.
Bitcoin halvings affect rewards for Bitcoin miners with Bitcoin halvings, there are more time required to mine similar 1 BTC.
Equivalent Network Time.
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
https://watcher.guru/bitcoin-halving
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/bitcoin-halving
https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2028-04-10-12-00-00
You can search for more if you need more.
Bitcoin halvings affect rewards for Bitcoin miners with Bitcoin halvings, there are more time required to mine similar 1 BTC.
Equivalent Network Time.
In the Bitcoin ecosystem a significant event takes place approximately every four years which aims at reducing the block reward by 50%. This four years gap is simply because having occurs in every 210,000 block mined. It takes roughly 10 minutes to mine a block and if we are to calculate to test our accuracy
First we will want to calculate the time in minutes
Our goal is to find out how many BTC get mined per year if it equals 210,000
Convert to Days
We have 1,440 minutes in a day which is same thing as calculating (24 hrs * 60 mins)
Now lets focus on the big picture which is the year equivalent. Remember we have on average 365.25 days in a year where we also have to account for leap years;
Halving Events , date and block reward:
Impact on Market Price
Understanding the principle of economics will give us the big picture of why price keeps pushing higher
First halving(November 2012)
Second halving(June 2016)
Third halving(May 2020)
Fourty halving(April 2024)[a/b]
Code:
Number_of_blocks_per_halving = 210_000
Block_time = 10 # Block time measured in minutes
Code:
Block_time_in_minutes = Number_of_blocks_per_halving * Block_time
# 210_000 * 10 = 2_100_000 # minutes
Convert to Days
We have 1,440 minutes in a day which is same thing as calculating (24 hrs * 60 mins)
Code:
Block_time_in_days = Block_time_in_minutes / 1_440
# Output: 1458.33
# Number of days it takes
Code:
# A typical year has 365 days
# A leap year has 366 days
# Leap years occur every 4 years with exception to years that are divisible by 100
# So in real sense we have 3 years that are 365 and a year that is 366 and so we have
years = ((365 *3) + 366)/4 #Output: 365.25
Block_time_per_year = Block_time_in_days / years
#Output = 3.99years
Halving Events , date and block reward:
| N | Year | Number of BTC |
| First Halving | November 28, 2012 | 25 BTC |
| Second Halving | July 9, 2016 | 12.5 BTC |
| Third Halving | May 11, 2020 | 6.25 BTC |
| Fourth Halving | April 19, 2024 | 3.125 BTC |
Code:
# Calculating halving is simple...
The first block reward was 50 btc
# So if we divide this by 2 we get 25 btc
# We repeat this process for every four years
# The first four years we experienced after Bitcoin was launched was in 2012
# which is 2009 - 2012
Impact on Market Price
Understanding the principle of economics will give us the big picture of why price keeps pushing higher
Quote
Excess Demand (Shortage): When demand exceeds supply, prices tend to rise until equilibrium is reached.
Excess Supply (Surplus): When supply exceeds demand, prices tend to fall until equilibrium is reached.
We can now say if there is limited supply and excess demand prices will keep pushing higher. In this four years gap we see how bitcoin halving affected the price of Bitcoin. A break down of bitcoin halving event in the last four yearsExcess Supply (Surplus): When supply exceeds demand, prices tend to fall until equilibrium is reached.
| Halving | Price($) |
| pre-halving | aprox: $31 | June 2011 |
| post-halving | aprox: $1,100 | November 2013 |
Second halving(June 2016)
| pre-halving | aprox: $1,100 | November 2013 |
| post-halving | aprox: $19,700 | December 2017 |
Third halving(May 2020)
| pre-halving | aprox: $19,700 | December 2017 |
| post-halving | aprox: $69,000 | November 2021 |
Fourty halving(April 2024)[a/b]
| pre-halving | aprox: $69,000 | November 2021 |
| post-halving | aprox: $108,268 | December 2024 |
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