Topic: In 2018 bitcoin might collapse... - page 2. (Read 2944 times)
Its possible to purge the blockchain of obsolete data. This is outlined in the whitepaper and the necessary data structures are in place (Merkle tree). The code is not yet there, but I see no reason why this would be even controversial.
Storage likely isn't going to be the issue as that traditionally has trended larger and larger. Bandwidth on the other hand is more likely to be the real issue. Most Internet connections haven't jumped up in speed over the past few years and unless some miracle happens for more people it will probably be the same speed in 4 years. On top of that, more and more ISPs are instituting data caps on a monthly basis with insane overage costs. Many of us who have been running a client all along won't feel the pain, but any new individual or business that is serious about setting something up will have to navigate the challenge of downloading the blockchain.
I like the idea of purchasing a multi-terabyte hard drive with a recent copy of the blockchain on it. Plug it in, run a MD5 hash program on it to verify that it is legit and then only have to do a few months of catch up instead of 9 years...
I like the idea of purchasing a multi-terabyte hard drive with a recent copy of the blockchain on it. Plug it in, run a MD5 hash program on it to verify that it is legit and then only have to do a few months of catch up instead of 9 years...
...under it's own weight.
The current blockchain is already over 13 GB, and the yearly growth is about 3x. And this while the transaction speed is limited, to delay this excessive growth.
If bitcoin will see a larger adoption, then a minimum of 3x blockchain growth per year is reasonable, but possibly more.
By 2018, 4 years from now, it may reach 13 * 3 ^ 4 = 1TB (one terabyte), which is going to be too much IMO, and still growing fast.
Possible solutions for Average Joe would be storing the blockchain on an external HDD, that's going to be purchased with the latest version of the blockchain,
because downloading without recoverable errors something this large is going to be tricky and take a long time (about 30 hours at 100 Mbps).
Pruning the blockchain might open the door for double-spending, and I haven't yet seen a serious attempt at this. It might also require some centralization.
Uber-bulls reading this will dismiss it as another bear attempt to scare the market, but I think it's a serious problem and should be addressed asap.
The current blockchain is already over 13 GB, and the yearly growth is about 3x. And this while the transaction speed is limited, to delay this excessive growth.
If bitcoin will see a larger adoption, then a minimum of 3x blockchain growth per year is reasonable, but possibly more.
By 2018, 4 years from now, it may reach 13 * 3 ^ 4 = 1TB (one terabyte), which is going to be too much IMO, and still growing fast.
Possible solutions for Average Joe would be storing the blockchain on an external HDD, that's going to be purchased with the latest version of the blockchain,
because downloading without recoverable errors something this large is going to be tricky and take a long time (about 30 hours at 100 Mbps).
Pruning the blockchain might open the door for double-spending, and I haven't yet seen a serious attempt at this. It might also require some centralization.
Uber-bulls reading this will dismiss it as another bear attempt to scare the market, but I think it's a serious problem and should be addressed asap.
But in 4 years how "big" is 1 TB?? Look at the average hard drive just 4 years ago compared to today. I think the standard will be 4-5TB+ hard drives. I see the problem being the transaction speed more than the actual blockchain growth. How much faster can the internet be to the average Joe to process the hopefully increased transactions?
No.
I am new so this may sound like a stupid question ( and who knows it maybe 
) but since bitcoin is not centralized who would make such a correction?
) but since bitcoin is not centralized who would make such a correction? core dev team. i am concerned because they don't appreciate the emergency of the situation. suppose there is a global fiat crisis. the blockchain could become a bottleneck when it is needed most. people could die.
anyhow, SPV clients, web clients are the ticket. scalability of transaction volume is not solved, however.
I am new so this may sound like a stupid question ( and who knows it maybe ) but since bitcoin is not centralized who would make such a correction?
) but since bitcoin is not centralized who would make such a correction? 
...under it's own weight.
The current blockchain is already over 13 GB, and the yearly growth is about 3x. And this while the transaction speed is limited, to delay this excessive growth.
If bitcoin will see a larger adoption, then a minimum of 3x blockchain growth per year is reasonable, but possibly more.
By 2018, 4 years from now, it may reach 13 * 3 ^ 4 = 1TB (one terabyte), which is going to be too much IMO, and still growing fast.
Possible solutions for Average Joe would be storing the blockchain on an external HDD, that's going to be purchased with the latest version of the blockchain,
because downloading without recoverable errors something this large is going to be tricky and take a long time (about 30 hours at 100 Mbps).
Pruning the blockchain might open the door for double-spending, and I haven't yet seen a serious attempt at this. It might also require some centralization.
Uber-bulls reading this will dismiss it as another bear attempt to scare the market, but I think it's a serious problem and should be addressed asap.
The current blockchain is already over 13 GB, and the yearly growth is about 3x. And this while the transaction speed is limited, to delay this excessive growth.
If bitcoin will see a larger adoption, then a minimum of 3x blockchain growth per year is reasonable, but possibly more.
By 2018, 4 years from now, it may reach 13 * 3 ^ 4 = 1TB (one terabyte), which is going to be too much IMO, and still growing fast.
Possible solutions for Average Joe would be storing the blockchain on an external HDD, that's going to be purchased with the latest version of the blockchain,
because downloading without recoverable errors something this large is going to be tricky and take a long time (about 30 hours at 100 Mbps).
Pruning the blockchain might open the door for double-spending, and I haven't yet seen a serious attempt at this. It might also require some centralization.
Uber-bulls reading this will dismiss it as another bear attempt to scare the market, but I think it's a serious problem and should be addressed asap.
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