Topic: In Case of Global Conflict, Is BTC The Best Alternative? (Read 353 times)

Damn, bro, that's the question I'm interested in discussing here. You raise the question of whether holding Bitcoin is good for our assets during a global conflict.
So, my position on this topic is that Bitcoin is a perfect and safe thing to protect your assets or money, but recently, due to war chaos (Israel and Hamas), the price of Bitcoin has seen a downward trend. After that, Bitcion is looking a little doubtful. It means that there is an impact on Bitcoin in war situations because it is obvious, like when the 2% dump in Bitcoin occurred due to the war between Israel and Hamas. When big countries fight a war, It will have a greater impact.

So I don't think that Bitcoin will maintain this price in the global chaos at this time as it is now. Because every person will sell Bitcoin to survive for themselves, from the government to the public, everyone will sell their invested assets. Government for war reasons, and the public sells them for basic needs, food, etc.

The justification for this is that Hamas and Israel have dumped the market despite being small states. So when big states fight, then more dumps can be seen in the price. So that means what to do with Bitcoin when humans are gone. Bitcoin will be beneficial when humans survive, and when there is a war between nuclear states, so how will the economy remain if from breaks down while it is not possible for humans to survive?

So the conclusion is that holding Bitcoin is good when Bitcoin moves normally in the market and there is no such bad situation to impact the Bitcoin price, like the recent conflict.

Are you using bitcoin as currency or investment? From what I know, the majority of people are looking at bitcoin as an investment rather than a currency, so it's funny that you say people should stop paying attention to the news. One more thing, are you brave enough to spend your bitcoin when you buy it for $69k and when it costs $15k, will you still spend it? Laszlo once bought 2 pizzas with bitcoin but did they use bitcoin as a measure of value or did they still base it on the value of bitcoin relative to USD?
We should not deny that fiat is still the measure of value of all assets in the world, including bitcoin, bitcoin cannot replace that role of fiat.

You take it wrong, although most people buy Bitcoin using fiat, but it's not mean Bitcoin is backed by fiat and when fiat gone, Bitcoin will gone too.

You forget if Laszlo ever bought pizza using Bitcoin, this mean Bitcoin can be used as a currency and the price of Bitcoin is totally depends on the market. Bitcoin fluctuate when there's a good or bad news are influenced by the market, if people aren't care with the news, Bitcoin price would relatively stable.

I don't think bitcoin can operate independently of traditional markets or the world economy. If it could operate independently, why was it dumped when the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out, as well as other assets? Or the Fed raising interest rates, why does bitcoin fluctuate and decrease more every time inflation increases, interest rates increase...Bitcoin is part of the economy and it is also subject to positive and negative influences of the economy. Bitcoin would not exist without its connection to the world economy, Bitcoin price increase is due to money flowing in and where does the money come from?

This is a tricky question to answer, I do believe that bitcoin is a great protection for our money and assets. But I am not sure how well bitcoin would actually do during a global conflict. The main issue during global wars is that international trade would collapse. With a large number of countries fighting each other there would be no more global supply chains, a lot of products couldn't be finished and many companies would go bankrupt quickly. In such a scenario where unemployment rises quickly the question would be how people can afford their basic needs. Instead of gold or bitcoin, I would rather expect food and water to become a major currency again. Large companies won't be able to keep selling us everything we need, I think a lot of peer to peer trading in goods directly becomes the norm again. Bitcoin could be possible to pay for goods if enough producers are willing to accept it. During the first few month of panic I think people will be hesitant to accept bitcoin or gold.

There are more number of wars going on. Think of the Ukraine - Russia war, there were heated discussion for some time period and media have forgotten it. So is the people, and now it is Israel - Palestine. Same as this we were able to see more number of wars taking place around the world. In certain things it is really impossible to reach a solution and one such is with the Israel-Palestine issue. Bitcoin is all about the decentralised functioning and not it doesn't have much of dependency over the traditional market. So, there'll be fluctuation and the same doesn't have major movements in the market.

I will just add here on what China is doing in our shores that they're calling it South China Sea, while our country is calling it West Philippine Sea. And they're even blocking the resupply missions of our coastguards and that's why there's a tension here as well. But I do hope that it won't happen to be a war conflict because everything can be done peacefully and talk about the situation on our waters.

It's better than gold because you can just carry your recovery phrases or private keys written somewhere you're confident that won't be noticed by people. You're holding your own assets and can run away with it while you'll be able to retrieve it later on. Unlike with other assets that you need to carry and their weights are heavy like gold, jewelries, real estate, etc.

It depends on the scale of the conflict and how far or close you are to it, if you are close to the conflict then your priority should be to get away as soon as possible, and bitcoin has the advantage that you only need a piece of paper to move your coins, so it adds to your mobility, however if the conflicts that we are seeing around the world escalate and we get another world war, then probably the best store of your wealth at that point could be food and other useful stuff which can sustain yourself and your family for an indeterminate amount of time.

I also think that Bitcoin will be useless as cash when the conflict became global.  Since there is destruction everywhere and people will prioritized their safety over their asset.  I think Bitcoin valuation is also affected by the conflict since people will prioritize food than investment during that time.

Converting all our asset in Bitcoin during the global conflict may or may not bring a good result since it will be dependent on how people will prioritize things after the war.


I also agree with this reply.

This is exactly my point. Most people on the thread are just going haywire with the replies forgetting that in the event of a global scale war, the relevance of any monetary item will go down to zero. So Bitcoin might not even be in the picture for most part of the war. Of course, this assumption is based on WWI and WWII.

However, A point to keep in mind is that Bitcoin was in demand in the face of a growing pandemic in 2020. It's not the same event but that's the point.

It is not just Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas. There's still the ongoing war in Yemen and I believe Libya is still in a state of civil war and maybe Syria although Assad is regaining the upper hand with the help of the Russians. There are indeed a lot of areas that are highly sensitive like the Korean peninsula, China and its neighbors, the Azerbaijan-Armenia issue on Nagorno-Karabakh, etc.

Bitcoin is decentralized and is not involved in any type of politics so it could become some sort of protecting our wealth like gold and other precious stuff that are valued over time.

Well, having Bitcoin has always been an advantage to the holders or investors because it's an asset that doesn't devalue like physical cash, and the purchasing power doesn't weaken because 1 Bitcoin is always equal to 1 Bitcoin. So, in times of any economic crises or war, those who have the asset on Bitcoin are safe because it will not be depreciated; rather, the price can drop but will surely rise again and even grow above the investor's capital, giving him or her the opportunity to archive profit. For someone who holds all their assets in Fiat, perhaps let's say they save their money in the bank. First of all, during any critical crisis, it might even be difficult for those citizens to be able to access their money.

Ahh not sure why we always connect the dots of war and failed economy with the Bitcoin. That’s not how it works. If so, then we would have been holding gold coins and silver bars to trade day today stuff. Just because there is war somewhere doesn’t mean we need another currency or valuable asset to trade. That’s literally illogical. If it’s war then nothing matters, only our lives, food and water will matter.

It would be funny if you ask this question to person from Israel right, would they think about Bitcoin or their lives and way to feed their families?

Irrelevant.

I think so, but we must make sure we have wide access to internet through satellite, so the destruction of the war won't incapacitate access to our money. The cons on that matter, is that we depend on the good will of some key figures of the technological sector, like Elon Musk who made internet available for ukranian forces in the war, but once they needed it for a counter-attack, he simply cut the access.

On this aspect, we are indirectly centralizing access to our own money, because if we had Bitcoin on that situation, we would be unable to access our wallets and make our transferences, sales and purchases. So we must analyze how autonomous we would be over our own BTCs in a chaotic war scenario.

After all, we would also need a decentralized satellite system or a strong trust on a centralized system that they would never foolish us for whatever reasons.

You won’t think about Bitcoin in the event of global chaos since you will be focusing on surviving. Also you can’t use Bitcoin if everything is on chaos since you will still need to convert it to fiat if you want to use it which will surely affected once global chaos occur.

Bitcoin advantage during this event is you might secure your funds from banks collapse since you can convert it on different currencies through the use of P2P but again there’s no guarantee that Bitcoin will not be affected in actual since Bitcoin price is terribly affected when the pandemic first hits which should be not affected in theory since Bitcoin value is independent from global market.

If somehow our country get involved with this stupid wars, I would absolutely transfer majority of my money into bitcoin instantly after hearing the news. This is to protect my money and if ever I plan to flee my country, it would be easy to carry my assets with me. No way that I would still keep some of my money in banks after hearing that kind of news. Though global war will be different because I assume that it will trigger bitcoin price going up given that mostly everyone who knows cryptocurrency will transfer their assets into bitcoin and other crypto. Though I'm not sure about that since probably internet will be affected when that happen.

You are getting it totally wrong. During a crisis, we want our wealth to be well diversified so that it does not decrease our portfolio by a huge margin.
If you don't hold any fiat what would you use to buy food because the grocery nearby your house won't be using bitcoin.
I had already mentioned that holding fiat to meet daily expenses would be sufficient and rest all diversified into various assets.
Gold does need space and so it would be better to hold gold bonds instead.
Real estate is another option because when the economy recovers then you can sell your property to recover your wealth.
Also, you can use your property for stay in case you don't have anywhere to go.

In the case of global conflict bitcoin can 100% be considered as a potential alternative. Its decentralised nature & cryptographic security make it resistant to censorship & control by any single government or authority. Bitcoin operates on a global scale allowing for seamless cross border transactions & potentially serving as a store of value in times of economic uncertainty. The 21,000,000 hard cap is one of its best features. Bitcoin can be volatile though & its acceptance as a widely recognised alternative may vary depending on the circumstances & global sentiment. It’s always wise to diversify investments & consider other assets as well.

In case of Global Conflict, BTC would be better option than Fiat, but I don't think it's better option than Gold. I wouldn't just turn all my assets into Bitcoin. But all that being said, if my country is the one that are having a conflict or war, I wouldn't even think about money, I would just try to survive, gather any food and water, I mean trying to leave the country might be too late right?

You mean extinction right? I disagree that bitcoin will be a hedge against war, I mean if that was the case, bitcoin would've been pumping non-stop with the advent of Ukraine-Russia war right?

Regarding global conflict, if your country isn't in any way affected, pretty sure that bitcoin would still do you good although if you're in a country affected by war, you're better off buying precious metals with your bitcoin and then try hoarding it because raw materials like iron and steel will be in demand.