Topic: In the last hour we are averaging 1 block every 2 minutes. (Read 1988 times)
The chinese think if they produce tons tons of miners the idiot buyers will continue buying them....
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
New estimated difficulty is now at +26% already and we are not even halfway to the next adjustment time.
New estimated difficulty is now at +26% already and we are not even halfway to the next adjustment time.
...
KnCMiner is now in 4th place, ahead of Eligius and Slush. Yow! Maybe KnC was running under "Unknown" before...
https://blockchain.info/pools
(12:11 AM US ET, 22 June 2014)
KnCMiner is now in 4th place, ahead of Eligius and Slush. Yow! Maybe KnC was running under "Unknown" before...
https://blockchain.info/pools
(12:11 AM US ET, 22 June 2014)
No, they have just spent the last week filling their DC's with brand new 20nm Neptunes.
ATM bitcoinwisdom is reporting an estimated next difficulty of 16,551,801,281 (+22.95%).
It's the second higher increase of 2014!
(the first one is the 26% increase on the Jan 13)
It's the second higher increase of 2014!
(the first one is the 26% increase on the Jan 13)
The Estimated Next Difficulty keep raising: 16,892,726,313 (+25.48%)
We are very near to the 2014 record.
...
KnCMiner is now in 4th place, ahead of Eligius and Slush. Yow! Maybe KnC was running under "Unknown" before...
https://blockchain.info/pools
(12:11 AM US ET, 22 June 2014)
KnCMiner is now in 4th place, ahead of Eligius and Slush. Yow! Maybe KnC was running under "Unknown" before...
https://blockchain.info/pools
(12:11 AM US ET, 22 June 2014)
Quote
There is no reason why there can't be a string of fast blocks without a change in hash rate.
But the hash rate is obviously going up very rapidly right now. We weren't just basing this on a string of blocks, but rather the overall chart for this difficulty period.
Holy crap! FriedCat, is that you messin around with your next-gen stuff?
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
PH's are miraculously appearing out of nowhere.....
BTW, anybody expecting their mean, monstrous miners lately?
My guess...PH's are miraculously appearing out of nowhere.....
BTW, anybody expecting their mean, monstrous miners lately?
BFL and KNC are loading up their datacenter with their newest gen miners. Also ASICMiner have 100s of PH of 3rd gen chips hitting the streets in the next few months.
There is no reason why there can't be a string of fast blocks without a change in hash rate.
The network hash rate is an estimate based on the amount of time between blocks. There is no way to measure the hash rate directly. The apparent hash will go up and down even when there is no change in the actual hash rate.
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
PH's are miraculously appearing out of nowhere.....
BTW, anybody expecting their mean, monstrous miners lately?
PH's are miraculously appearing out of nowhere.....
BTW, anybody expecting their mean, monstrous miners lately?
My guess...
BFL and KNC are loading up their datacenter with their newest gen miners. Also ASICMiner have 100s of PH of 3rd gen chips hitting the streets in the next few months.
We were getting 30% to 40% rise in difficulty at the end of last year, these 10% to 20% jumps are not surprising anymore. I am glad I am not a miner.
NOW I begin to wonder if blocks ARE being solved more quickly than "normal", does that mean the difficulty will be going up sooner than we expected?
That depends on your definition of "expected"
If you are asking if difficulty will adjust sooner then every two weeks then the answer is es as it would not take as long to miner 2016 blocks (see below)
If you are asking if the difficulty will adjust sooner then 2016 blocks after the last time difficulty adjusted then the answer is no. The bitcoin protocol is set up so difficulty will adjust every 2016 blocks to a difficulty so that if the network hashrate stayed the same (2016 block average) then it would have taken the network to two weeks to produce the previous 2016 blocks
Should be 10 minutes right?
Well, the network is also probably 5x what it should be in the first place.
As long as Bitcoin is profitable and machines are cheap, people will get into it; driving out those who don't re-invest enough.
Greater difficulty would further centralize pools because it would be the only way to get a decent return.
Miners who don't adapt to the most recent technology on time will not survive; coins will get increasingly rare, miners just won't sell as much.
Either way, right now, pools pretty much ultimately dictate the direction mining takes.
One man's pain is another man's gain; one should get the same share for the hash from one pool to another without any noticeable advantage.
An experience pool hopper can notice when it's time to move and hence, most pool hopper I ran into make a lot more
Essentially, mining needs to be a lot more profitable to prevent centralizing the network two 2 or 3 entities; mining would then be unprofitable for amateur miners.
Solo miners and small pools are going out of business because blocks are too rare.
I think something like this is needed for the future of mining:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/06/19/pow_academics_ko_bitcoin_mining_mammoths/
Well, the network is also probably 5x what it should be in the first place.
As long as Bitcoin is profitable and machines are cheap, people will get into it; driving out those who don't re-invest enough.
Greater difficulty would further centralize pools because it would be the only way to get a decent return.
Miners who don't adapt to the most recent technology on time will not survive; coins will get increasingly rare, miners just won't sell as much.
Either way, right now, pools pretty much ultimately dictate the direction mining takes.
One man's pain is another man's gain; one should get the same share for the hash from one pool to another without any noticeable advantage.
An experience pool hopper can notice when it's time to move and hence, most pool hopper I ran into make a lot more
Essentially, mining needs to be a lot more profitable to prevent centralizing the network two 2 or 3 entities; mining would then be unprofitable for amateur miners.
Solo miners and small pools are going out of business because blocks are too rare.
I think something like this is needed for the future of mining:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/06/19/pow_academics_ko_bitcoin_mining_mammoths/
...
@ abacus
I note that you have an ad for bitmixer.io. I have run some BTC through them some eight times, no problems so far.
-- Have you used their service?
-- Any problems?
-- Any other services (ex. sharedcoin.com) you could comment on?
I ask because I am interested in this topic. Thx!
EDIT:
And thank you odolvlobo! I think I better understand how this will change over time.
@ abacus
I note that you have an ad for bitmixer.io. I have run some BTC through them some eight times, no problems so far.
-- Have you used their service?
-- Any problems?
-- Any other services (ex. sharedcoin.com) you could comment on?
I ask because I am interested in this topic. Thx!
EDIT:
And thank you odolvlobo! I think I better understand how this will change over time.
I'm sorry but I can't help here because at the moment I never used bitmixer.io or any other similar services.
What I can say - maybe this can add another hint to your idea about them - is about their signature campaign, that now is running for several months with small but punctual and automatic weekly payments. Furthermore, their pay scheme is based only on members' activity and not on the number of posts, so I think it could be considered a spam-less campaign.
But we are OT here, best to come back IT.
...
@ abacus
I note that you have an ad for bitmixer.io. I have run some BTC through them some eight times, no problems so far.
-- Have you used their service?
-- Any problems?
-- Any other services (ex. sharedcoin.com) you could comment on?
I ask because I am interested in this topic. Thx!
EDIT:
And thank you odolvlobo! I think I better understand how this will change over time.
@ abacus
I note that you have an ad for bitmixer.io. I have run some BTC through them some eight times, no problems so far.
-- Have you used their service?
-- Any problems?
-- Any other services (ex. sharedcoin.com) you could comment on?
I ask because I am interested in this topic. Thx!
EDIT:
And thank you odolvlobo! I think I better understand how this will change over time.
NOW I begin to wonder if blocks ARE being solved more quickly than "normal", does that mean the difficulty will be going up sooner than we expected?
The difficulty changes every 2016 blocks, regardless of how fast or slow they are added. If blocks are added every 10 minutes, then the difficulty will change after 2 weeks (but it will stay the same). If blocks are added every 5 minutes, then the difficulty will change after 1 week (and it will go up). If the blocks are added every 20 minutes, then the difficulty will change after 4 weeks (and it will go down).
Computing the new difficulty is very straightforward:
new difficulty = old difficulty / ( time to mine 2016 blocks / 2 weeks )
Why so many still getting into mining? Doesn't seem much profit left these days... Hmmmm
I have a couple of personal ideas:
- big mining companies that order huge quantity of hardware can achieve a price that still leave good margins for profit;
- some or all the ASICs makers themself are costantly adding up to the Hashrate, with some stripped-off hardware using their ASICs.
...
Following up on latest times between blocks at 12:15 PM US ET, I noted at blockchain.info:
1 min
4 mins
6 mins
6 mins
11 mins
16 mins
My Rough Gauge™ warning bell is going off!
***
NOW I begin to wonder if blocks ARE being solved more quickly than "normal", does that mean the difficulty will be going up sooner than we expected?
Following up on latest times between blocks at 12:15 PM US ET, I noted at blockchain.info:
1 min
4 mins
6 mins
6 mins
11 mins
16 mins
My Rough Gauge™ warning bell is going off!
***
NOW I begin to wonder if blocks ARE being solved more quickly than "normal", does that mean the difficulty will be going up sooner than we expected?
Has to be luck. Have faith its not something more sinister
Welcome to the forums.
Luck has nothing to do with it.
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
We have almost broke 10PH within less that a day
Let me welcome you to the game as well
...
I am having problems putting images in, but I saw this at blockchain.info's Mining Pool Stats about 20 mins ago (note KnC Miner):
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rmFftzcQMp4yV5GOYHC99GoXhZ54blHeY3l5S-9mFxc/edit
And look at this, KnC miner just solved one (307038):
https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000000d01eb13ffd6c09cc4179dcb8bb6355d3b4703b226ef7c90
***
Since BTC "math problems" are solved approx every 10 minutes or so, here is how I look at blockchain.info's info. I look at the Age (second column) and relate it to my Rough Gauge™ of 5 - 15 - 25 - 35 - 45 - 55 minutes if blocks were solved EXACTLY every 10 minutes:
Height Age
307036 5 mins
307035 15 mins
307034 25 mins
307033 35 mins
307032 45 mins
307031 55 mins
If I see something very different than the above pattern, then that means blocks are being solved more quickly or slowly than "average". I like looking at this, it gives me some idea of what we may expect when the difficulty goes up...
I am having problems putting images in, but I saw this at blockchain.info's Mining Pool Stats about 20 mins ago (note KnC Miner):
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rmFftzcQMp4yV5GOYHC99GoXhZ54blHeY3l5S-9mFxc/edit
And look at this, KnC miner just solved one (307038):
https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000000d01eb13ffd6c09cc4179dcb8bb6355d3b4703b226ef7c90
***
Since BTC "math problems" are solved approx every 10 minutes or so, here is how I look at blockchain.info's info. I look at the Age (second column) and relate it to my Rough Gauge™ of 5 - 15 - 25 - 35 - 45 - 55 minutes if blocks were solved EXACTLY every 10 minutes:
Height Age
307036 5 mins
307035 15 mins
307034 25 mins
307033 35 mins
307032 45 mins
307031 55 mins
If I see something very different than the above pattern, then that means blocks are being solved more quickly or slowly than "average". I like looking at this, it gives me some idea of what we may expect when the difficulty goes up...
Has to be luck. Have faith its not something more sinister
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