I think it is a mistake to over-focus on price, I disagree that there is no innovation happening, it is just a little less visible now as VC money means you can't open source everything, you need to build in stealth to maximise payback
BTC is an opensource start-up growing up under the glare of publicity with every misstep highlighted, which doesn't help price discovery
Topic: In these desperate/FUD times, here's my (I hope) unbiased view of Bitcoin. - page 2. (Read 1740 times)
September 29, 2014, 03:38:20 AM
September 29, 2014, 02:41:00 AM
The problems I see:
1) Lack of innovation. Absolutely nothing big happened for years now. Anonimity would be a helpful thing, even if it means hard fork. I'm starting to think this is being intentional. Anonimity is essential property.
2) 7 transactions per second, it's clear that Bitcoin can't compete with other paying systems with a constraint like that.
3) Much energy lost on various alt-coins. We're fighting a war against banksters and fiat money. This is whole new healthy economy and sense of unity and focused work would be better than what we have now - 150 new altcoins every month. In the other hand I keep questioning myself is it really possible to code for Bitcoin now, are people allowed to? Not much into Bitcoin development, so I just don't know how much Bitcoin is open to development by public.
4) We run out of geeks and early smart investors. There's nowhere 1.5mil USD to be found daily just to keep the price steady.
5) Right now, Bitcoin is much more of a speculation/investment vehicle rather than currency/payment system, and that is changing slowly. Price stabilization is good, but can and will happen only when adoption as currency is much much greater.
I think we can safely conclude no merchant adoption will help it rise. It's weak factor. Even if Amazon, Google, Ebay and Paypal fully accepted it, I feel like maximum 2x rise is possible and then again slow decline. Besides, we already know Bitcoins spent for purchases are in most cases immediately converted to fiat.
For the Bitcoin price to rise, either somehow big investors realise that they have interest to invest, or some big financial crysis hit somewhere and many average Joes decide to try to save their own wealth. Remember, Bitcoin is more accessible to people than gold. The more - gold is a scam afaik, they say there's 7 times more of a gold in papers than in reality, correct me if you think I'm wrong.
The last thing I said makes me very nervous selling my portion of Bitcoins. Another bubble may kick-in, because those two scenarios I mentioned may be reality any minute now, especially as we're in ~300$ waters. Remember it's close to previous peak of 270$, and price around $300 may be considered bottom.
Discussion welcome.
1) Lack of innovation. Absolutely nothing big happened for years now. Anonimity would be a helpful thing, even if it means hard fork. I'm starting to think this is being intentional. Anonimity is essential property.
2) 7 transactions per second, it's clear that Bitcoin can't compete with other paying systems with a constraint like that.
3) Much energy lost on various alt-coins. We're fighting a war against banksters and fiat money. This is whole new healthy economy and sense of unity and focused work would be better than what we have now - 150 new altcoins every month. In the other hand I keep questioning myself is it really possible to code for Bitcoin now, are people allowed to? Not much into Bitcoin development, so I just don't know how much Bitcoin is open to development by public.
4) We run out of geeks and early smart investors. There's nowhere 1.5mil USD to be found daily just to keep the price steady.
5) Right now, Bitcoin is much more of a speculation/investment vehicle rather than currency/payment system, and that is changing slowly. Price stabilization is good, but can and will happen only when adoption as currency is much much greater.
I think we can safely conclude no merchant adoption will help it rise. It's weak factor. Even if Amazon, Google, Ebay and Paypal fully accepted it, I feel like maximum 2x rise is possible and then again slow decline. Besides, we already know Bitcoins spent for purchases are in most cases immediately converted to fiat.
For the Bitcoin price to rise, either somehow big investors realise that they have interest to invest, or some big financial crysis hit somewhere and many average Joes decide to try to save their own wealth. Remember, Bitcoin is more accessible to people than gold. The more - gold is a scam afaik, they say there's 7 times more of a gold in papers than in reality, correct me if you think I'm wrong.
The last thing I said makes me very nervous selling my portion of Bitcoins. Another bubble may kick-in, because those two scenarios I mentioned may be reality any minute now, especially as we're in ~300$ waters. Remember it's close to previous peak of 270$, and price around $300 may be considered bottom.
Discussion welcome.
Jump to: