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Topic: Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply - page 39. (Read 1457853 times)

full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100

RealBitcoin spoke about price of bitcoins expressed in fiat money.
If you mean prices (of just about anything) expressed in bitcoins then you are speaking about price deflation. This means that some consumers will hold off some of their spending. Whether this is bad or good thing can not be decided.
It depends where you put boundary between responsible saving and selfish hoarding. And where you put boundary between "only the best goods and investments should survive" and "economy and investment should be stimulated by gradually destroying value of people's money (bitcoins) and forcing them to spend and support consumption".

Think about situations and goods where prices go down (computers, smartphones, ...). Is it a healthy market? Would it be healthy market if prices went down much faster?

Hoarding = Insurance.

It is never evil to have supplies and reserves that could be used in an emergency.

Stupid keynesians wants us to have 0$ in our pocket and constantly take loans after loans. Its an evil economic theory.


I rather prefer to have 1 mountain of gold than to have 0$ in my pocket.

Some spending is necessary.. So maybe a hybrid system?
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1009
JAYCE DESIGNS - http://bit.ly/1tmgIwK

RealBitcoin spoke about price of bitcoins expressed in fiat money.
If you mean prices (of just about anything) expressed in bitcoins then you are speaking about price deflation. This means that some consumers will hold off some of their spending. Whether this is bad or good thing can not be decided.
It depends where you put boundary between responsible saving and selfish hoarding. And where you put boundary between "only the best goods and investments should survive" and "economy and investment should be stimulated by gradually destroying value of people's money (bitcoins) and forcing them to spend and support consumption".

Think about situations and goods where prices go down (computers, smartphones, ...). Is it a healthy market? Would it be healthy market if prices went down much faster?

Hoarding = Insurance.

It is never evil to have supplies and reserves that could be used in an emergency.

Stupid keynesians wants us to have 0$ in our pocket and constantly take loans after loans. Its an evil economic theory.


I rather prefer to have 1 mountain of gold than to have 0$ in my pocket.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Large scale, green crypto mining ICO

Why do a lot of people go for bitcoin when these, too, go under inflation and deflation of price and money supply?

What is the difference? I really don't get why people are crazy about bitcoin.  Huh

Some people see a lot of potential in bitcoin and consider it as a long term investment (I do)

and some play trading with the increase and decrease of the price to make daily profit.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Does this price inflation and deflation depend fully on Bitcoin days destroyed? I guess it also plays an important role because one may send his own coins between different addresses trying to show the network that several transactions are being made?

Good question! Bitcoin days destroyed are a better indication of how much real economic activity is occurring on the bitcoin network since it was realized that total transaction volume per day might be an inappropriate measure of the level of economic activity in Bitcoin as someone could be sending the same money back and forth between their own addresses repeatedly. So, if a person hoards some bitcoins for a year or more, the value of bitcoin days destroyed will be more. Similarly in the case of those wallets, whose owner lost his/her private key(s) and are unable to withdraw them anymore! This will lead to the gradual price rise. But if everyone starts selling bitcoins sooner, then the total number of bitcoin days will also reduce leading to lowering of BTC/USD price. This eventually influences in the inflation and deflation towards total monetary (=bitcoin) supply.

Thanks for the explanation Smiley
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100

Why do a lot of people go for bitcoin when these, too, go under inflation and deflation of price and money supply?

What is the difference? I really don't get why people are crazy about bitcoin.  Huh
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 254
Must be noted that Bitcoin Days Destroyed" give the same result if 1 Bitcoin ten days old is moved ten times in a day or just one (the last movement).
The number of transactions is at least as much important.
The BDD is more interesting as an indicator for the mobilization of more or less coins kept as savings.
People have incentives to mobilize coin (and exchange them with something else) when they expect the value to fall or, the reverse, someone give discount to buyers with bitcoin for loading bitcoin in exchange for an asset he believe will depreciate.
legendary
Activity: 1268
Merit: 1009
Does this price inflation and deflation depend fully on Bitcoin days destroyed? I guess it also plays an important role because one may send his own coins between different addresses trying to show the network that several transactions are being made?

Good question! Bitcoin days destroyed are a better indication of how much real economic activity is occurring on the bitcoin network since it was realized that total transaction volume per day might be an inappropriate measure of the level of economic activity in Bitcoin as someone could be sending the same money back and forth between their own addresses repeatedly. So, if a person hoards some bitcoins for a year or more, the value of bitcoin days destroyed will be more. Similarly in the case of those wallets, whose owner lost his/her private key(s) and are unable to withdraw them anymore! This will lead to the gradual price rise. But if everyone starts selling bitcoins sooner, then the total number of bitcoin days will also reduce leading to lowering of BTC/USD price. This eventually influences in the inflation and deflation towards total monetary (=bitcoin) supply.
sr. member
Activity: 475
Merit: 255
So when prices go down, its a bad thing because consumers will hold off on spending because it might be cheaper tomorrow?

RealBitcoin spoke about price of bitcoins expressed in fiat money.
If you mean prices (of just about anything) expressed in bitcoins then you are speaking about price deflation. This means that some consumers will hold off some of their spending. Whether this is bad or good thing can not be decided.
It depends where you put boundary between responsible saving and selfish hoarding. And where you put boundary between "only the best goods and investments should survive" and "economy and investment should be stimulated by gradually destroying value of people's money (bitcoins) and forcing them to spend and support consumption".

Think about situations and goods where prices go down (computers, smartphones, ...). Is it a healthy market? Would it be healthy market if prices went down much faster?
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1009
JAYCE DESIGNS - http://bit.ly/1tmgIwK
Does this price inflation and deflation depend fully on Bitcoin days destroyed? I guess it also plays an important role because one may send his own coins between different addresses trying to show the network that several transactions are being made?

Yes that measurement is somewhat accurate (although I`m not sure how accurate) of the money velocity.

The slower the money velocity the higher the price.

So when prices go down, its a bad thing because consumers will hold off on spending because it might be cheaper tomorrow?

I`m not sure we can talk about a consumer base in bitcoin yet, we are too few to make any study on this.

If bitcoin price goes down, thats bad for anybody who holds bitcoin obviously, and prices go down. Only good for loan takers, because they get chep loans.

If price goes up, then its good for holders, and consumers, because they get the same stuff cheaper. However loan takers get fucked as their loan size is increased too.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
you guys reckon a reserve bank of some sort would help, not owned by a government but something like that.

This is definitely not an option, in effect this would be taking a distributed ledger and injecting a lethal dose of centralisation

No, not that is the problem.

Even if we could find a full transparent, fully non-corruptible, fully democratic central bank, it would be a stupid idea.


Why? Simple. Because a central bank distorts natural free market prices, and destroys price discovery, encourages extreme speculation and disrupting the natural ways of the market.

That would happen even if the central bank were run by angels, which is apparently not.

You have to trust the free market guys.
So when prices go down, its a bad thing because consumers will hold off on spending because it might be cheaper tomorrow?
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
Does this price inflation and deflation depend fully on Bitcoin days destroyed? I guess it also plays an important role because one may send his own coins between different addresses trying to show the network that several transactions are being made?
full member
Activity: 140
Merit: 100
The prices of btc keep on increasing and decreasing regularly accordingly as we can see. But, the supply of money is to be maintained as same. The changes in prices whether increase or decrease can give a big profit or loss to the person. Here's why
(1) You buy one btc today for 24000inr and then btc price decreases, you are certainly in a loss. You can be in profit too on the reverse case.
The differences in prices of different currencies isn't uniform too,e.g. 1btc is 328us$ and also 24,000inr. But ,328us$ isn't equal to 24,000inr.
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
While I despise them, I see the genius of the Federal Reserve system.

There's genius in stealing?  Roll Eyes

Yes. I fully agree with him!


Come on, Genius ?    Its not that clever and they really didnt invent the system in effect.   Its just an elaborate raffle, if I hold up a lovely brand new car 5 litre Turbo, it does 200mph.  It looks amazing, two tone paint work, all chrome leather seats whatever but to make its cost is 50,000 dollars.   Alot of people want it, then I go sell raffle tickets worth 1 million dollars Iam a genius but more accurately a salesman exploiting, obscuring a misunderstanding in the terms by those hoping to win.   Nothing special, this is done all over the net, TV everywhere people use the viewers poor maths to take advantage.   1 person wins, a few people gain from the system, the salesman gets his cut but in the main its raffle owners who get to spend a free 900k

Thats all the FED has done, they over leveraged and the raffle is yet to be settled but they already have charged ticket prices and the money is spent.   The amount of lustre attributed to holding dollars is unparalleled, its not a unique product and value is momentary.    To unwind now would take the same taxes but no services by government, an army only locally militia based and so on.  Feasibly it would take decades to pay back even with no spending I believe, its not possible and growth to meet the cost is not likely without some dramatic move like USA gov copyrights power stations using nuclear fusion for a great free energy export

you guys reckon a reserve bank of some sort would help, not owned by a government but something like that.
Not a central bank but competing banks with varying schemes of investment and capital reserve would improve reliability.  They would be more justified then merely operating the worlds most powerful army as a qualifier.
As we have now, all banks report to one and its a top down system less independent, less able to adapt to change and more subject to fracture under pressure
newbie
Activity: 37
Merit: 0
you guys reckon a reserve bank of some sort would help, not owned by a government but something like that.

This is definitely not an option, in effect this would be taking a distributed ledger and injecting a lethal dose of centralisation
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 629
No monetary system is perfect. Bitcoin too has its flaws. I have two primary issues with BTC.

1) Its value is derived purely by supply and demand in the market place. It is like a piece of art. It is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

That is the case with any monetary asset.  That is the fundament of any speculative asset (of which a monetary asset is a specific case).

Quote
2) What's to stop a wealthy consortium or a country like China from taking control of it. And if this were to happen, since it is not backed by anything physical, would its value fall to zero?

Probably.  As fiat money does.  (the Reichsmark being the schoolbook example, but there are many others).

In fact, "being backed by something physical" only makes the asset a proxy of the physical thing.  But physical things can also be speculative.  The only thing that limits the down side value of a physical thing, is its supposed inevitable consumption value.  But in as much as a physical asset has only his consumption value, it doesn't have any monetary value or use.  The extra demand for monetary use is what increases a physical asset's price, and that increase is exactly its monetary value.   When a physical asset falls back to its consumption value, it has lost all use as a monetary asset.

So the only difference between a "non-backed" and a "backed" asset is that BESIDES its monetary use, a backed asset is a proxy of a consumption value.

On the other hand, a backed asset has the problem of rising the price of an asset that is also a consumption good.  That consumption then becomes difficult or impossible, because of the price distorsion.

All this indicates that it is much better to have non-backed monetary assets over backed monetary assets.  Non-backed monetary assets cannot perturbe the consumption of something, and backed assets can just as well loose all their monetary value.

In fact you can do that yourself.

Consider "food" as a backup of a monetary asset.  If that were true, that would be a disaster, because the price of food would increase much because the extra demand for food as monetary asset.  Nobody would be able to eat a decent meal at a decent price !

Let us consider that the price of bread is multiplied by 50 because of its demand as a monetary asset.  So instead of, say, a bread having teh value of $1 (I'm using the $ as a unit of value measurement here only), it would cost $ 50.  Nobody would eat bread any more.  But you can use bread as "money".  As it is backed by its "food value", you know that in the worst case, your bread can only drop down to $1,-, because people will still want to consume it at that price.

Now, consider that you have an altcoin, "breadcoin".  It is worth $49 because of offer and demand.  If you want to "back it up" with something physical, it is sufficient that for each breadcoin you own, you also buy a genuine bread.  As such, the day that the breadcoin hyperinflates, and looses all value, you still have your bread left.  As when you were using physical bread.
sr. member
Activity: 346
Merit: 250
While I despise them, I see the genius of the Federal Reserve system.

There's genius in stealing?  Roll Eyes

Nope, just abhorrent stupidity amongst the sheeple.
sr. member
Activity: 672
Merit: 253
Since the value of BTC increases with the increase in demand, what if there is an increase in demand with a proportionate increase in supply? This question is in reference with the estimation of value , when demand intersects supply.

If demand and supply increases an equal amount, the price will not change.
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 254
Inflation is positive price change, deflation is negative price change. I think nothing differentiates inflation and deflation of price and money supply. A recession is usually defined as 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. However for the 2008 recession, the beginning was defined as the peak of Employment and steady job loss after and the multiple negative GDP growth followed.

You are wrong, because in real life money supply inflation do not turn in a proportional prices increases across the board.

Some prices increase, some decrease, other stay the same.
The increases and decreases happen with a variable delay.
Sometimes the increase is proportional to the increase in money supply, but often it is lower or higher.
Sometimes some price increase then fall down.

It is not so easy.

sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
Inflation is positive price change, deflation is negative price change. I think nothing differentiates inflation and deflation of price and money supply. A recession is usually defined as 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. However for the 2008 recession, the beginning was defined as the peak of Employment and steady job loss after and the multiple negative GDP growth followed.
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 254
What I know is Bitcoin inflation is already known, it is a decreasing function going to zero in 120 years.
In less than a year it will be less than 5% per year...

You are making a number of assumptions with that.

The first assumption is that the miners and developers will be fine with a system that does not generate the number of additional bitcoins that are generated today to pay miners. Do you think miners will be fine only generating money from transaction fees? And if so, do you feel they will accept a low transaction fee? If not and the transaction fee goes high, how do you feel that will affect desire and need for bitcoins?

The miners are apparently in control of the bitcoin protocol as shown with the current BIP situation. The small handful of miners who constitute over 50% of the network have decided on which modifications to make to bitcoin as far as the blocksize goes and are running with it.

How many bitcoins there will be in the future is really up to them. They have shown that they control the network. The developers are a distant second to them. However both have more control than the bitcoin userbase based has.

Secondly, you are not assuming any lending. All major currencies used in the world today have a fractional reserve system. There is no way to prevent a money multiplier or fractional reserve system arising when it comes to any asset or currency.

You can take someone's bitcoin on deposit, lend it out to someone else, they can buy something from yet another person and if you can get that person to deposit their bitcoin with you, you can lend it out to someone else. Re-lending the same coins increases the money supply.

If bitcoin did become popular, you would have bitcoin lending. And all currencies in the past (tally sticks, gold, etc. tally sticks were mostly a system of credit in any case) and current currencies have/had borrowing and a money multiplier. It has not happened with bitcoin (except in a tiny part) because people are afraid to lend. Due to the pseudo-anonymous nature of transactions, people don't trust to lend their bitcoins out. If bitcoin really became popular, you would have lending and bitcoin would be affected by the same inflation rates caused by ease of lending that other currencies have.

It is not the quantity of dollars in the world that causes inflation. It is the ease to which people can get dollars.

Simple example: If anyone can go to a bank and borrow as much as they want to buy a house, what happens to the price of houses?



Some miners, even the majority of the hash rate could change the rules THEY follow.
But they can not change the rules I and others follow.
Their out of protocol rules bitcons would not be considered valid and rejected. Like 3 and half dollar bill round and pink.
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