Inside The Mind Of A Bookmaker - page 2.

LuanX3

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Quote from: Mzie on November 17, 2016, 05:02:17 AM

Once you get to know how bookmakers make sure they always make profit, your gambling experience can be phenomenal. Some matches are over priced or over priced ( more odds offered for a winning team).

What things have you noticed with Bookmakers that they do not want punters to know?

In my local bookie, back in 2014, I waged on NBA games with him. I was doing martin gale and was losing pretty bad. So what happen was I'm on my 6th lost and I needed to wage $1,000 for a game. When I informed him about it, he said he would change the odds for this bet. I was shocked with it as it was the first time he did it. I knew a lot of players that gambled with him. So I think they always know who will win.

eternalgloom

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Quote from: equator on November 17, 2016, 05:18:22 AM

Quote from: Mzie on November 17, 2016, 05:02:17 AM

Once you get to know how bookmakers make sure they always make profit, your gambling experience can be phenomenal. Some matches are over priced or over priced ( more odds offered for a winning team).

What things have you noticed with Bookmakers that they do not want punters to know?

What you mean to say is some time you can guess it but some time bookmakers are also get loss as some matches they itself cannot tell who will win

That's not the point of the question, I think. Sure, bookmarkers can get a loss but normally they should always make a profit in the long term.
It's just a matter of consistently making the right calls according to your correct assessments, due to variance and unforseen circumstances, you'd make a loss from time to time, but overall you don't.

shulio

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Quote from: shanem on December 16, 2016, 08:06:05 AM

won't hesitate to limit your bets if you keep winning. Anyway, bookmakers don't really care for most people who lost more than they win.

Some bookmakers dont even lower your limit even if you keep on winning. It is gambling and they knew that sooner or later you are just going to lose everything however some does as they dont really have the bankroll to sustain such huge winnings all the time which is why people do need to choose their bookmaker carefully

shanem

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Bookmakers don't know everything but they fear " true fixed games " the most as they can wipe them out if many people bet on the " fixed result ". This is one of the reason why bookmakers limit bets on lower leagues and won't hesitate to limit your bets if you keep winning. Anyway, bookmakers don't really care for most people who lost more than they win.

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Quote from: babyjesusftw1 on December 15, 2016, 12:01:13 AM

I think it really helps to understand that the lines are not set based on what the bookmakers thinks they should be set at. They set the lines based on what the PUBLIC thinks the line should be set at. This is a huge difference. You gotta take advantage of public misconceptions to make money, because the lines are based on those incorrect perceptions of value.

Definitely, they always want to beat the public to make money and that is the reason why sports betting industry are very profitable. If we notice, we sometimes see a line that we think it's a no brainer but in reality it is just a trap for us to put our bet without analyzing the game carefully.

Nothing is easy in gambling and we must know that, the public likes the favorites but favorites does not cover most of the time. End result, we lose and they win.

shintosai

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Quote from: babyjesusftw1 on December 15, 2016, 12:01:13 AM

I think it really helps to understand that the lines are not set based on what the bookmakers thinks they should be set at. They set the lines based on what the PUBLIC thinks the line should be set at. This is a huge difference. You gotta take advantage of public misconceptions to make money, because the lines are based on those incorrect perceptions of value.

Thats the real business over there looking for this big mistakes coming from the gamblers mind before making or creating the odds the more you make good calculation the more money you will have from this mistakes for sure business will keep moving forward.

Kasabus

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Quote from: EdenHazard on December 15, 2016, 12:15:50 AM

Quote from: Woodie on December 13, 2016, 02:40:52 PM

Quote from: Mzie on November 17, 2016, 05:02:17 AM

~snip~

What things have you noticed with Bookmakers that they do not want punters to know?

First things first a bookmaker will always honey pot the punter as they know that we tend play the numbers {odds}
Secondly I don't think their is a formula other than the head to head records and team\player form which we could use to bash the bookie

there is something called mathematics of bookmaking and psychology of bookmaking.

both math and psychology have a big impact to trick a lot of common people in sportsbetting. that is what i found about the theory behind bookmakers. mostly people fall into it, no wonder the bookmakers always have profit in the long run.

With math, I guess gamblers are more smarter since we can focus in one game only and we can analyze it with the data we have, but bookmakers has to set different lines in different games. Their biggest advantage is they lured us to think we are right, they master psychology over math and that is the reason why we fail even if we are too confident with our analysis base on the statistics.

EdenHazard

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Quote from: Woodie on December 13, 2016, 02:40:52 PM

Quote from: Mzie on November 17, 2016, 05:02:17 AM

~snip~

What things have you noticed with Bookmakers that they do not want punters to know?

First things first a bookmaker will always honey pot the punter as they know that we tend play the numbers {odds}
Secondly I don't think their is a formula other than the head to head records and team\player form which we could use to bash the bookie

there is something called mathematics of bookmaking and psychology of bookmaking.

both math and psychology have a big impact to trick a lot of common people in sportsbetting. that is what i found about the theory behind bookmakers. mostly people fall into it, no wonder the bookmakers always have profit in the long run.

babyjesusftw1

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I think it really helps to understand that the lines are not set based on what the bookmakers thinks they should be set at. They set the lines based on what the PUBLIC thinks the line should be set at. This is a huge difference. You gotta take advantage of public misconceptions to make money, because the lines are based on those incorrect perceptions of value.

Finestream

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Well, bookmakers are not always right but most of the time they are, they are setting the line to confuse the public like setting a line that is too good to be true, and when the public sees that line they automatically jump and buy it but Bookmakers already knew that would be the initial reaction of the people. However, to win and to know what is the mind of the bookmaker, one method is always successful which is betting against the public.

smho_16

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Quote from: Mzie on November 17, 2016, 05:02:17 AM

Once you get to know how bookmakers make sure they always make profit, your gambling experience can be phenomenal. Some matches are over priced or over priced ( more odds offered for a winning team).

What things have you noticed with Bookmakers that they do not want punters to know?

If you want to be 1 step ahead of the bookies, you have to be careful watch lots of soccer games (I am talking about soccer here) of all different leagues, whatever the league you follow one game everyday, you will check the stats of the teams carefully , you will know which team from a certain league scores many goals, have great attack and etc.

A clear example where all the betters did beat the bookies by a big margin is the last weekend game from Ligue 1, PSG vs NICE, where bookmakers clearly favored PSG with 1.33 odd. On the other side betters talking to each other here in the forum concluded (most of them) to play Nice handicaped still bigger odds, +1.5 Asian handicap 1.90 and +1 2.25 and the end result were draw of the game 2-2 which means all betters won that night.

This is how you can be inside the bookmaker mind and beat them with your skill as all people had seen Nice games this year and surely was a big mistake to give them odds of 9 . Don't know if bookmakers did this intentionally or not but they were beaten to death that night. I am sure they remember it as a horrible night.

Woodie

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Quote from: Mzie on November 17, 2016, 05:02:17 AM

~snip~

What things have you noticed with Bookmakers that they do not want punters to know?

First things first a bookmaker will always honey pot the punter as they know that we tend play the numbers {odds}
Secondly I don't think their is a formula other than the head to head records and team\player form which we could use to bash the bookie

FrueGreads

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Quote from: Mzie on November 17, 2016, 05:02:17 AM

Once you get to know how bookmakers make sure they always make profit, your gambling experience can be phenomenal. Some matches are over priced or over priced ( more odds offered for a winning team).

What things have you noticed with Bookmakers that they do not want punters to know?

I never noticed anything like that. I do know that the odds distributed for an event (their book), does not represent 100%.
They are supposed to have profit from that difference. Of course that is much more complex, and the odds also vary according to the bets they get etc, but I never noticed anything like you are saying. Maybe I did not understood what you meant.

pereira4

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Quote from: MinerHQ on December 10, 2016, 05:53:56 PM

I didn't understand what OP is wanted to know from this post?

There are so many matches are fixed these days, so none of our experience will help to guess the winners correctly, and these bookies know how to play with these tricks and get profit. Normal persons difficult to guess those things.

Indeed so many people getting caught in total frauds nowadays, but that usually happens in the lower divisions, its way harder to fix a high level match for example first division soccer. Imagine the insanity that would happen if a Barca vs Real Madrid was found to be fixed. It could be the end of sport. Nobody would trust anything ever again. That's why I think it's reasonable to bet on high level matches.

ralle14

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Quote from: Junko on December 10, 2016, 04:15:35 PM

Quote from: Ryan Dugan on December 10, 2016, 03:47:31 PM

I also have wanted to know many times how the bookie stays in business. They must use a special formula. But they also take a risk. They can lose too. Maybe some bookies run ^^ Its a good question I hope someone who knows more can shed some light here as many of us are interested in this.

The bookies make money/stay in business regardless of the outcomes of bets/matches because of the commission, a.k.a. "juice" that they charge on each bet.

Simple example: You bet 1 btc on some team to win at 1.90 odds.

If you lose, you get nothing and the book keeps your 1.00 btc.

If you win, you get your original bet of 1.00 btc back, but instead of also getting even money, you only get an additional 0.90 btc winnings. The leftover 0.10 goes to the book. This is the juice/commission/vig/vigorish.

Good explanation that's like when both lines are offered 1.90 to win team 1 and 1.90 to win team 2 if you calculate the probablity you'll get
1/1.90 = 52.63%
1/1.90 = 52.63%
The bookmaker already gained a profit margin of 5.26% from that match alone, knowing the bet amount are equally balanced. This is the reason why you need to shop for higher odds to not lose more profit in the long term.

MinerHQ

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I didn't understand what OP is wanted to know from this post?

There are so many matches are fixed these days, so none of our experience will help to guess the winners correctly, and these bookies know how to play with these tricks and get profit. Normal persons difficult to guess those things.

bitcoinprofit

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Quote from: Clement Kaliyar on December 10, 2016, 03:53:29 PM

Quote from: Ryan Dugan on December 10, 2016, 03:47:31 PM

I also have wanted to know many times how the bookie stays in business. They must use a special formula. But they also take a risk. They can lose too. Maybe some bookies run ^^ Its a good question I hope someone who knows more can shed some light here as many of us are interested in this.

Bookies wont lose in the long run.None of the major sports betting has closed its doors till now and it is a billion dollar business anually. I am not sure what the OP is the trying to understand but major bookies know how to attract people into gambling with attractive offers and bonuses because the more people they have the more chances are to earn more money as they know they will eventually lose.

Yea an let's not forget the "trusted" tipsters...all they want is the affiliate program moneies

Junko

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Quote from: Ryan Dugan on December 10, 2016, 03:47:31 PM

I also have wanted to know many times how the bookie stays in business. They must use a special formula. But they also take a risk. They can lose too. Maybe some bookies run ^^ Its a good question I hope someone who knows more can shed some light here as many of us are interested in this.

The bookies make money/stay in business regardless of the outcomes of bets/matches because of the commission, a.k.a. "juice" that they charge on each bet.

Simple example: You bet 1 btc on some team to win at 1.90 odds.

If you lose, you get nothing and the book keeps your 1.00 btc.

If you win, you get your original bet of 1.00 btc back, but instead of also getting even money, you only get an additional 0.90 btc winnings. The leftover 0.10 goes to the book. This is the juice/commission/vig/vigorish.

Clement Kaliyar

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Quote from: Ryan Dugan on December 10, 2016, 03:47:31 PM

I also have wanted to know many times how the bookie stays in business. They must use a special formula. But they also take a risk. They can lose too. Maybe some bookies run ^^ Its a good question I hope someone who knows more can shed some light here as many of us are interested in this.

Bookies wont lose in the long run.None of the major sports betting has closed its doors till now and it is a billion dollar business anually. I am not sure what the OP is the trying to understand but major bookies know how to attract people into gambling with attractive offers and bonuses because the more people they have the more chances are to earn more money as they know they will eventually lose.

Ryan Dugan

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I also have wanted to know many times how the bookie stays in business. They must use a special formula. But they also take a risk. They can lose too. Maybe some bookies run ^^ Its a good question I hope someone who knows more can shed some light here as many of us are interested in this.

Topic: Inside The Mind Of A Bookmaker - page 2. (Read 1217 times)