The mega-rally towards the end of last year was, in part, due to things like CME & CBOE futures and LedgerX options launching. There was a sense that institutional money was about to get in the game and people wanted to front run that money. However, volume stayed relatively flat after those launches and new money didn’t flow in as much as some people expected.
The institutional news was amplified by the relative uneventful failing of S2X and neutralization of Chinese FUD. It gave overhhelming confidence to most retail investors who flocked to exchanges by the millions. The problem was that the ICOs boomed unimaginably too. Hyped products like Tron, Ripple etc. exposed the immaturity of overall market to the serious investors, both product-wise as well as ethics-wise.
These seem to be the fundamentals that have stopped the flow of new money/ institutional money.
Now, Coinbase is in the process of launching a custody solution and some other groups will be launching custody offerings later this year as well. This narrative that custody is right around the corner could reignite the news cycle around institutional money entering the space. Will institutionalization actually happen now? If people try to front run that money again, will we see a bull run this coming summer as these custody products get set to roll out?
Coinbase custody is a product that basically tells big money that you are not good enough to handle crypto and you should let us do it for you. I don't see how that can be confidence inducing.
A bull run will come but it'll be hardly due to institutional news now. It has to be established that the availability of secure, borderless cash can be put to good use and that it can open up new markets/ opportunities. This will be established only when we start seeing more products and lesser scams.