Topic: Insured gambling. Get Per Cent of your Net Loss back. (Read 2359 times)

Really interesting offer you are providing us with here :-)

Is it possible for https://www.lanadas.com and https://www.dealerscasino.com as well?

I have previously used https://findfaircasinos.com for finding casinos with cashback bonuses, with great success I must say.

Satoshi Dice's affilate program used to say it pays in real time... I checked again and now it says that earnings are made available to your account in the first week of each month.

Source:
https://satoshidice.com/affiliate-program/

@Dooglus I have checked most of the sites and in most the max bet for roulette is actually a lot less than 21BTC. The variance reduces (ie. you are less likely to get high wins like 2x), but the odds still favor you.

When does SatoshiDice payout the referral balance? Weekly or monthly? I have an affiliate now and I already paid him. But I have not got it in my balance. Do you know when I will get it? The site doesn't mention anything regarding it.

Your reasoning is correct. Probably they are doing so to attract people to their site. The odds are against the owner.
but you have to see that affiliate earnings can be negative too. So, it can cancel out future positive earnings.

For simple calculation take house edge = 1% and bet = 1BTC, affiliate pay rate = 25%

Win chance = 49.5%  Win = 1BTC  Product= 49.5

Lose chance = 50.5% Loss = 1BTC Affiliate reward = 0.25BTC Net loss = 0.75BTC  Product = -37.875

Average = 11.625/2 = 5.8125%

It is only a short term incentive to promote their site.

NGR can be negative or positive. Only the NGR at the end of the month counts.

The people who actually play after being referred by someone is very low. So, the odds are actually in favour of the house as long as less than 17.2% of the amount wagered is through referrals. (17.2 % is for 1% odds.) In theory.


@moreia I have no idea what you are talking about. You have to understand that there are 3 different affiliate systems: based on wagered as in PD, based on NGR and CPM(for very very highrollers). So you are talking about the first or second?

I'm not quite following your math there. 5% of 2.5 BTC is 0.125 BTC. That's what they would pay to the affiliate if I lose a 2.5 BTC bet isn't it?

So when I bet 2.5 BTC at 2x, I have a 49.5% chance of winning 2.5 BTC, and a 50.5% chance of losing 2.5 BTC and getting 0.125 BTC back, for a net loss of 2.375 BTC.

With me so far?

My expected profit is 2.5 times 0.495 plus -2.375 times 0.505.

>>> 2.5*0.495 - 2.375*0.505
0.038125

So my expected profit on a bet of 2.5 BTC is 0.038125 BTC.

>>> 0.038125 / 2.5 * 100
1.525

That means the house edge is effectively -1.525% : the odds are in my favour by 1.525%.

So where am I wrong? Can you point out what step in my reasoning is faulty please?



Yes, but since I've probably made 1000 bets of 0.1 BTC each by then, I'm very likely to have less than 0.6 BTC left. After they take off the 0.3 BTC bonus for being too slow, I have less than my 0.3 BTC deposit left.

Most casino bonuses I've played for give you a sporting chance of having your initial deposit left by the time you've cleared your bonus play-through requirements. This place seems like it doesn't. Then again I've not played at old-style casinos for many years now, so maybe they're all like this now.

Bonus policies always seemed weird to me. So according to what you said, if one does not reach the required bets after 30 days (let's say he claimed a bonus of 0.3 for this example) the 0.3 BTC bonus will be subtracted from his account but he gets the chance to keep and withdraw any winnings he made by betting with 0.6 BTC?

OP hasn't a fucking clue what he's talking about. He has displayed over and over that this is the case.

Actually you're wrong, they lose 5% of the 1%, not 5% of the house edge.
Say im the admin, a user rolls 2.5BTC @ 2x and the number = 49.7, affiliste gives back .1BTC to the user, this would mean i lose 0.025% of my 1% house edge, not 2.5%.
Doesn't necessarily need to be loss from the house edge, but i'm sure you see what i mean.

edit - i had a great post mapped out, sadly, phone crashed (thank you ios8!!)
i'll come back tomorrow with what i was going to say

1. They probably don't know that.  

2. wins means payouts of a bet. To be clear : bets - wins = profit.
So equation becomes:  (bets - wins – bonuses) – admin fee

Admin fee? No idea.
0% as given on http://www.askgamblers.com/casino-affiliate-programs/bitstars-casino-affiliates-review (i googled it)

3. 90% for highrollers.

4. idk. Can you check? (edited)

You're missing the point. These sites survive off tiny edges. 1%, 2%. If they give you 5% back when you lose, that's +EV for you. And apparently some give 40% back when you lose!

please visit these links:
The site usually just ban the user and the user usually doesn't make it public.
moreia, you are speaking from the customer's point of view, but if you read their policy, they can and will most of the time just ban the user.

However, Win88 is an exception
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/win88-fail-to-their-customers-again-scam-810861 (no ref winnings paid, because ip was same.)
The account had nothing in it. Winnings were withdrawn.
So no problem.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/win88-did-not-pay-me-26-792767
OP is edited later. It was a contraversial issue. All balance of all his accounts were forfeited and account banned.
It was later, after many days, and after much effort, he got it back.

Fairproof
as moreia knows, his account was held with its full balance because he used a bot which caused none whatsoever damage to the site.

So many examples out there. Most are just hushed up.


As regards to NGR and Referral based on wager, former is preferable. It depends on the site. PD etc. gives commission based on wager and some other sites, give it based on NGR or Net Gaming Revenue.


1. In that case you must use a proxy no one has used to create an account. Pretty big trouble to do it. There are other ways to track it. Most sites use withdrawal addresses etc.

2. 5% It is usually 20% to 50% for most reputed sites. It does matter.

If I have to chose between 40% of my losses or 0.4% of my wagered amount, I'd chose the 40% of losses.

If I win, I don't need a rebate. If I lose and get 40% back, that's massively +EV for me.

In the long term they're the same thing (assuming a 1% house edge). In the short term they're not.

They won't take the money from your account (they aren't allowed to)
They may:
A. Take your REF EARNINGS (not your deposit)
B. Stop your account from receiving anymore ref commission

They are not allowed to disqualify any money that you deposit and/or win gambling unless you are proven to be cheating the game, not the ref system

yah, I'm thinking the same thing also

coz admin check and you ban, the no money at all 

Find one site that states referring yourself is not allowed and post it here.
PD "apparently" has this rule, easily bypassed with a proxy or VPN and a subtle username. Not that hard at all.
As for any other site, I'm sure the admins quite frankly don't give a damn if you refer yourself and get 5% of your loss back, they still have the 95%.

And another point, why would we want a percent LOSS if we can still get what we wager back even if we win?? Should be whole wagered, not amt lost

Well, they get one bet from a high roller. I'm not going to play roulette if it's -EV.


"wins" means "payouts"? or "profits"? And what's the admin fee?


I didn't know if the 90% you PM'ed me was super secret or not, so I picked a number.

Maybe the issue is with the max bet. Can I bet 21 BTC on a single hand of blackjack?


Lol english' do it speak you fuc moth...

Are you asking why I wouldn't refer myself to that site?

I expect that would be against their terms and conditions. I don't want to give them an excuse not to pay out the 40% referral payment.

Lol why this would use own ref acc...

idk. There is no flaw I can find..
They get a high roller.

Net Gaming Revenue = (bets - wins – bonuses) – admin fee.

Is it against site policy or something? I don't think it is. It is the same effect if you clicked on my banner or my signature etc.

Average Expected revenue is : 3.746BTC
So your average expected profit is 3.371BTC  (90%)  [not 2BTC ]

Here's what I'm thinking:

I deposit 21 BTC, bet it on "red" on roulette.

18/37 chance I win 21 BTC
19/37 chance I lose 21 BTC, but they pay 40% of that back to you, and you give me 5 BTC, say.

So I've a 18/37 chance of being +21 BTC and a 19/37 chance of being -16 BTC.

My expected profit is 2 BTC.

Where's the flaw here? They seem to be giving a 40% rebate on a game with a 2.71% edge...

>>> 18/37 * 21 - 19/37 * 16
2.0000

No commission then.
Commission can be upto 0.0005BTC.

But, it is still small.

this is a nice idea but what if u lost say 0.001 BTC
commission would be less that 0.00001
how will i get a % of that, that amount is too small to be withdrawn

1. That is a weird policy.

2. Please don't click on my signature. I will PM you a separate link. I am not sure how that link ended up in my signature. And whether it is my ref link.

3. Don't do the bonus unless you can do it. I never did that.
Go to profile and and uncheck this if you don't want to receive it:

Bonus Settings
I don't want to receive any Bonuses

PM'd

I will use a different link for each person.

My existing ref link:
Date   Visits   Registered Users(With deposits)   Deposits   NGR (net gaming revenue)
BTC   
2014-08-01   2   2(1)   1   -0.10000000   
2014-09-01   0   0(0)   13   -0.07000000   
2014-10-01   0   0(0)   0   0.01010000   0

So, if you play with that ref link, we get nothing.

idk.
I am at a profit from playing there, anyway.

Only one link per account - but you can have lots of accounts.

If I click the bitstars link in your sig, what percentage of my losses will you pay me?

Edit: I checked out their "100% first deposit bonus": they'll double your first deposit up to 0.3 BTC but you have to play it through 35 times, and wagers only count 5% of their value unless you play slots, so that's 700 times, and the max bet is 0.1 BTC, so I'll have to make at least 2100 bets to claim my "free" 0.3 BTC - and I only have 30 days to do it, or they'll subtract the bonus amount from my account, and any losses I made so far come out of my initial deposit...

What a warm welcome!

So how's their affiliate scheme? If I make a single large bet on blackjack and lose, how much will you give me back?

Edit: "We know a good rate of commission is important. That's why we offer you the chance to earn up to 40% each month whether you are promoting Euro or Bitcoin gaming."

40% of what, exactly? What does "Net Gaming Revenue" mean?

PM'd

I haven't seen a stranger referral policy.
The guys drafting it must be nuts. 

Almost all casinos offer 20 to 50% of Net Gaming Revenue. eg. Bitstars.net, SatoshiBet
FortuneJack is an exception.

Is it still possible to create multiple ref link from one account?

I tested it too. My balance shows 0.001BTC after i lost 0.01BTC. I expected it to be weekly. Monthly is a bit too long.
So, it is better to withdraw everything in the in game balance before the payout if it is negative?

Seems legit lol, pm me for your primedice ref link please.

Where offers 30%?

SD was paying (and charging) after each bet, but they changed it so now they pay only at the end of each month I think.

The way it works is you get 10% of the action of all the players you refer. If they lose, you get 10% of their losses but if they win you lose 10% of their profits.

I tested it out by referring myself and winning a bet, and my main account's balance went negative by 10% of the amount the new account won.

They say they're not going to come after you for negative balances, but that they're not going to allow people to abuse the system.

I pointed out that I could make a new affiliate account for each person I refer, and just throw away all the ones that refer winning players and keep the ones with losing players. That's probably considered "abuse", but I don't know how they would be able to tell if I registered each one from a different IP address and such like. Note also that by referring yourself you can make a +EV bet: if you win, you pay 1.9% house edge and if you lose you get 10% back in your affil account. That's a +3.1% EV if you bet at 2x, and higher if you bet at higher multipliers, up to around +8.1% for the highest multipliers.

I will give around 80 to 90% of referral income. 90% for high-rollers.

Yeah, I didn't mean 1 per cent. Some sites offer 30% of Net Gaming Revenue.

Satoshidice? Yes. I am testing it since i already got a request there.
Do you know how exactly it works? I mean when they will pay? Can I reset my ref income etc?

I just checked PRC's affiliate program. If you refer me, and I wager less than 1000 BTC, you get 0.01% of the amount I wager. Since the house edge is 1%, that is expected to be around 1% of the amount I lose.

So your expected earnings from my play would be the same as my expected refund from you. That makes your insurance policy have an expected profit of 0 for you. So why would you offer it?

Edit: maybe when you said "a per cent" you meant "an (unspecified) percentage". I interpreted it as "one percent", but you probably don't mean that.

Edit2: do you offer the service on satoshidice too? Their referral program is very strange in that if you refer a winner they charge you 10% of their losses.

Might consider if u offered picks from some premium picks service that u pay for. Then u can just forward picks to your referrals.

5%? No. Varies with site.

Depends on the site. Around 80 to 90%..

What precentage of the BTC you earn from reffs are you giving back?

Are you offering a 5% cash back?

1. What 5%?

2. You don't need my service, don't post.

3. Referring yourself is against the site policy. You will get simply banned with your coins in or out of it. If you have been paying attention to this forum, you must have seen casinos (win88 is the most recent one) banning users for doing that. Most will not be public. And sites usually have a zero tolerance policy in such issues since such behavior will reduce their profits.
There are multiple ways (like bitcoin addresses) other than the ip that they check to confirm it.
VPNs: Unless you are sure that no one else have created an account with it, it is the same result.

Can't you just do this by creating a referral account under your own account name? I doubt, this will be good for anyone.

you are stupid, someone can make one account and affillate himself on playing account. nobody need you service
if there is ip restiction there is many vpn services on internet.
but i think its illegal depend from policy

And you get the rest of the 5%? Not smart...better to play with a second account!

How it works:
1) PM me the site you want to play at.
2) I will give you my referral link.
3) You play.
4) You win, you take home the profits, you lose, you get per cent of your net loss back.

Only available for trusted sites with affiliate programs. In certain situations, in sites that are not transparent, I will ask for proof of loss.

Conditions vary with site and will discuss on PM.

If this thread is inappropriate in any sense, please do inform me and I will lock or delete this thread.

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