Topic: Interesting graph: The payoff of early investment: Stocks IPO vs BTC (Read 285 times)

The chart is from early March 2019 (see https://howmuch.net/articles/investing-100-at-IPO). According to their methodology description, prices were taken as of 15/02/2019, when BTC was 3.593$. All values have logically shifted, but BTC is now at around 6.918$ (92,54% higher), so that would drive total value on the chart from 7.186.980 $ to 13.836.000$ … a minor correction …


Note: You should be able to post the image. Imgur is fine. Image file size (actual file, not dimensions) needs to be below 2.5 Mb.
In any case, this is a very reduced (just to show you) view of the image in the author’s article referenced above. Once you post it in the OP I will delete mine.

Yeah, BTC is a hybrid scheme. A really good one. Even the authorities are careful to classify it as a scam.

For sake of simplicity leave trading aside for now.

Mining is essential, right? Without it there could be no transactions, right?
So if you pay for miners of each era half of what you did pay before and insert hope into them, it would still be profitable, then you ARE PROMISING the price will increase. If you are right, then early adapters were automatically granted with unproportional reward. If you are wrong... well...people lose their money in form of electricity.

You also think wrong about new investors. A new investor is anyone, who puts his REAL MONEY into the scheme. So, if someone buys BTC for real dollars (not, Tethers, which is even more popular:D) then he is that new money.

To me, on the other hand, it seems only logical that in an event of rapid devaluation those that have savings will be interested to preserve them by selling fiat for precious metals and, very possibly, Bitcoin. You're saying that it's a good investment in a third-world country but not in a developed one, but it seems to me that the opposite is also reasonable. Think of it this way: people from the third world are more likely to have fewer savings and focus on survival. Thus, they'd need the money that can buy them things, even if this money is rapidly losing value. They cannot afford to make savings or whatever if the question is whether they have enough to buy food for today. In a prosperous country that is suddenly hit by hyperinflation, on the other hand, many people are interested not in survival but in remaining rich. So selling BTC to buy the money that loses value does not make sense to them, whereas selling fiat from their wealthy bank accounts for Bitcoin seems like a good choice.

Frankly speaking this ROI is really vague. I mean for an ordinary person or even an extra ordinary person there was no way to actually buy bitcoins from someone until 2011-2012. Bitcoin users were pretty much isolated and most of the trade took place on this forum itself. Moreover as you have mentioned the insane ROI in the upward sense. Allow me to mention the ROI in negative sense too. Imagine those who bought BTC at 19k and sold at 3k. It's certainly a 70% loss which not many stocks suffer everyday. and yes before you say that those people are idiots who bought at 19k and sold at 3k. I really would call even those people idiots who bought bitcoin in 2010. They were just lucky enough that they bought it.

Indeed, in an actual scheme you HAVE TO bring other people for you to be able to cash out, once you give them your money, there is no way out but that.

dohh is just badmouthing Bitcoin who knows why...

Bitcoin doesn't care what others are willing to pay for it, that has nothing to do with Bitcoin, its out of code and its not its business. The market is giving it a price, if you don't agree then don't buy it, simple. If the others want to buy it its their problem. Nobody is promising anything. You can spend the rest of your life thinking its just a bubble "waiting to pop", but that is your problem.

Bitcoin has the value it has because its useful to others, if it wasn't useful nobody would want it. People do not buy bitcoin to be rich overnight, that is long in the past, as i said, the minority that trusted it back when nobody else did. Its their prize for investing early.

Now we ended up with a digital secure coin, which was the intention the first place. So everything went according to plan, no matter what price it ends in. And yes, it will keep going up, albeit slower as time passes and it reaches maturity. Because its deflationary currency, it has a limited production written in code, so it doesn't suffer from the inherent inflation of fiat and centralized currencies.

The fact that its slowing down means its getting mature. It has a very solid base. dohh must have been waiting a decade for it to fail, well see you in 2030. I dare you quote this in 10 years.

Insane ROI with insane risk, you know. Check ROI for almost of alt coins

You don't need any crazy ROI to beat inflation, since inflation is just a few percent per year. A since high ROI means high risk, Bitcoin is actually far from being the best asset to beat inflation. Investors who want to only negate inflation seek small and predictable returns, and they would be very uncomfortable with Bitcoin's volatility.

how those who follow the current IPO compared to BTC holders from the beginning, I think the initial BTC holders of course they are much richer than the followers of the IPO, see the best investment of all that is drawn the most profitable is BTC

your image link is invalid because on that link make sure it ends in JPG or PNG, usually you will get a link that ends in .jpg or .png, or it could be because your rank Jr member has not been given access to display images

I can't agree more with this ! and people spectate it will reach 100,000 USD by 2020

According to Wikipedia:


I was never promised payments for recruiting other Bitcoin investors. Were you?

You could argue the Bitcoin market operates by the greater fool theory -- people invest because of an irrational expectation that prices will always rise, not because of intrinsic or fundamental value.

That's about it, though. Anyone claiming that Bitcoin is a Ponzi or pyramid scheme doesn't understand how those work.

I don't like that graph because it shows your profit from the lowest to the highest point. How many people were able to buy BTC below 1 dollar and sell it for 20 thousand?

It was the same with the pump to 1000 dollars when the price was there for maybe a day and then crashed. One important thing is that most investments are better than holding fiat money. If you have money in the bank spend it because it will lose value otherwise.



I don't think this thread is a place to ask such questions Go to beginners and help.

Wanna put this into a graph as well: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply ?
Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme. I get it, some people understand it and they are OK with scamming from BTC. But those who do not understand it... are in real danger of losing tehir hard-earned money.

how do you guys put image on bitcointalk? i cant figure out, it keeps saying invalid host when i use imgur

Was. It no longer works for that. It does keep the value, and even keep adding a bit purchasing power overtime, but never like in the past were you could actually live of it.

Those who trusted bitcoin in the very beginning, and did not spend it, can simply retire from all the money they have already made. Those of us who came too late, will never be able to do it. We can put our savings into bitcoin, and that would at least preserve them from inflation, but that's about it. Bitcoin entered the stage where it is more coin and less "investment". A little like buying gold.

Just imagine those that bought at like 10$ even if they sold today at 7000$, probably more if they keep holding.

If you buy today at 7000$, you can hope your best might ever reach 14000 so your 10$ turn into 20$, not 7000$ (or 14000$ lol).

Stocks can also fail, and fail hard. A bit like altcoins. Unlike Bitcoin, many altcoin start with a price and go all the way to the bottom to never recover. Some recover a bit, and very few actually do grow back up.

I'm sure getting apple stock in the 80ies would have probably been a nice move, and if i had any i would be getting rid of them now, as that company simply lost whatever it had (both Steves). You could even say the same for Microsoft (no Gates or Balmer, etc.).

Can you picture a Tesla or SpaceX without Musk? Sadly, in some companies it does matter. But Bitcoin was made in such a way that even without Satoshi is surpassed everyone's expectations, even his/her/theirs. It was a smart move to get out of the picture, people are even more confident in the future of Bitcoin, they know it can't be stopped.

If any holders holding bitcoin from 2010/11 and till now then they are rich now.I actually hate IPO from 2011-12.I lost majority percent of my money in Stock market. Because of Stock market dump and our countries Corruption.after that left stock market.But I regret myself why I didn’t hear about bitcoin in 2011.But Now I have no fear in bitcoin.Stocks markets is shit.   

Early adopters who continued to hold Bitcoin through the years are certainly enjoying the best ROI even at today's current price of Bitcoin. Well, early adopters of any successful platforms are really showered with the best profits, this is true with many big companies and more true with Bitcoin. Volatility can certainly be a good thing when things are going up and can be that glue to attract many risk-takers into the fold of Bitcoin.

It comes as a no surprise. That data is mainly because of its unregulated nature. No one controls its price and thus it could go soaring high for smaller timeframes than most stocks/shares available of stock exchanges. It's mainly driven by just demand-supply principle and is not bound to any restrictions. On the contrary, companies listed on stock market need to adhere with ever-changing government regulations, and the price volatility is low, thus showing data much lower than what Bitcoin could offer.

A stock IPO is a poor comparison. By the time a company finally goes public, it's already been through many stages of funding and is usually an established, profitable company.

It'd be interesting to see how much Nike or Walmart's earliest private seed investors profited. I'm sure those numbers would blow this IPO data out of the water.

What is striking is how much fiat money is losing value compared to investments. Looking at the chart makes me think that even the worst of them have managed to give you over 10 times the value in the last 10 years, so your investment was doubling with every year. At the same time inflation takes 2-3% a year so you'd have 30% less if instead of buying shares you decided to bury cash in the garden.

That sure is some interesting data, but let's not get over ourselves and automatically conclude that bitcoin would be the best investment to "beat" inflation. If you're in some third world country, sure. But if were talking like bigger countries like the united states, we really don't know. If the US went through hyperinflation for instance, we won't know for sure if people would be moving their money to bitcoin(which I personally doubt), or if people would be selling their bitcoin to have money to spend on things(which I personally think is the more likely scenario).

In the end, no one knows, and only time will tell.