intuitively, which option would you pick? 1, 2 or 3 (see image)

molecular

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Quote from: BTCurious on October 30, 2011, 07:11:00 AM

Quote from: teukon on October 30, 2011, 04:53:00 AM

How does one pronounce "casascius" anyway?

^This

Quote from: teukon on October 30, 2011, 04:31:54 AM

To make this question more interesting you might want to make option (C) 0% and/or slightly rephrase the question. You might also try something a little bit deeper:

If one of the following five answers to this question is chosen at random what is the chance you will be correct?
A) 0%
B) 20%
C) 40%
D) 80%
E) 40%

How does one "answer" this? My head is full of fog Tongue

It is strongly reminiscent of "This sentence is false. Is that sentence correct?". Basically, if 40% is correct, you have 40% chance. But if 20% is correct, you have 20% chance. But if they are both correct, then there's 60% chance, which gives 0% chance, which gives 20% chance. So 20% wouldn't keep looping around, but 40% wouldn't either, but they can't both be correct. Should we say there is no answer, the question is a liar paradox?
I can't put my finger on what is "wrong" with the question…

The answer is part of the question, that's what's "wrong" with the question.

BTCurious

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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

I like these kinds of questions more as polls, actually.
In fact, let's continue this here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/self-referential-poll-50355

teukon

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Quote from: BTCurious on October 30, 2011, 07:11:00 AM

How does one "answer" this? My head is full of fog Tongue

It is strongly reminiscent of "This sentence is false. Is that sentence correct?". Basically, if 40% is correct, you have 40% chance. But if 20% is correct, you have 20% chance. But if they are both correct, then there's 60% chance, which gives 0% chance, which gives 20% chance. So 20% wouldn't keep looping around, but 40% wouldn't either, but they can't both be correct. Should we say there is no answer, the question is a liar paradox?
I can't put my finger on what is "wrong" with the question…

If correct is taken to mean (can consistently be correct) then (B), (C), and (E) are possible and (A) is not. But then what about (D)? Could it be "meta-consistently-correct" or something?

More seriously, I would simply say that there is no solution to this question (yes, there is a similarity with the liar paradox). With a slightly different wording (not saying "... the probability ..." which implies uniqueness) there could be two different consistent solutions, 20% and 40%. The cause of the apparent paradox is the self-reference in the question.

saqwe

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Quote from: molecular on October 28, 2011, 04:20:15 PM

i guess silver, but like the looks of all of them

bulanula

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Silver all the way !

BTCurious

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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Quote from: teukon on October 30, 2011, 04:53:00 AM

How does one pronounce "casascius" anyway?

^This

Quote from: teukon on October 30, 2011, 04:31:54 AM

To make this question more interesting you might want to make option (C) 0% and/or slightly rephrase the question. You might also try something a little bit deeper:

If one of the following five answers to this question is chosen at random what is the chance you will be correct?
A) 0%
B) 20%
C) 40%
D) 80%
E) 40%

How does one "answer" this? My head is full of fog Tongue

It is strongly reminiscent of "This sentence is false. Is that sentence correct?". Basically, if 40% is correct, you have 40% chance. But if 20% is correct, you have 20% chance. But if they are both correct, then there's 60% chance, which gives 0% chance, which gives 20% chance. So 20% wouldn't keep looping around, but 40% wouldn't either, but they can't both be correct. Should we say there is no answer, the question is a liar paradox?
I can't put my finger on what is "wrong" with the question…

teukon

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Quote from: payb.tc on October 30, 2011, 04:37:02 AM

yeah i think 'intuitively' was the wrong word choice...

my intuition said go for the EURO because being Aussie, it doesn't look fake to me... we're used to colourful polymer notes. it immediately looks the most valuable, because the others look like pocket change.

choosing rationally on the other hand, i'd go for the c-c-casket coins, even if i don't care to learn how to pronounce their name.

How does one pronounce "casascius" anyway? I've been thinking "ka-sass-ee-us" the whole time. Could it be that it's really "ka-sass-key-us"?

payb.tc

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Quote from: teukon on October 30, 2011, 04:31:54 AM

I agree though, the poll could have been worded better. Wink

yeah i think 'intuitively' was the wrong word choice...

my intuition said go for the EURO because being Aussie, it doesn't look fake to me... we're used to colourful polymer notes. it immediately looks the most valuable, because the others look like pocket change.

choosing rationally on the other hand, i'd go for the c-c-casket coins, even if i don't care to learn how to pronounce their name.

teukon

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Merit: 1011

For a consistent meaning of "answer" and an assumed uniform distribution for "random", 0%

To make this question more interesting you might want to make option (C) 0% and/or slightly rephrase the question. You might also try something a little bit deeper:

If one of the following five answers to this question is chosen at random what is the chance you will be correct?
A) 0%
B) 20%
C) 40%
D) 80%
E) 40%

I take your point though, the poll could have been better worded. Wink

EDIT: This post has been edited.

Otoh

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teukon

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Quote from: mobodick on October 29, 2011, 02:51:05 PM

Quote from: molecular on October 28, 2011, 06:12:06 PM

"Fluctuation" implies 2 objects. What are you measuring fiat fluctuation against?

Fluctuation, usually, describes a value changing over time.
So you compare it against itself at a different point in time.
For doing so you try to keep all other factors as equal through time as possible.

So fluctuation implies at least one value/level/number in a space that changes over time.

The value of a kind of fiat is a relative quantity and so when we can only say whether or not it fluctuates with respect to something else. If we fix the quantity against which we measure we can happily talk about fluctuation in value. Most people would probably take some average of the goods and services they purchase regularly as their yardstick. In this respect fiat is remarkably stable but I wonder how much of this is because everyone prices in fiat.

If your personal list of goods and services comprises completely of "silver" then you'll find 2 to be pretty stable.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: m0w3r on October 29, 2011, 03:30:56 PM

I don't see an option for a chicken or small goat. Then, I may be a little old fashioned I guess.

In case that is supposed to be a smug, or sarcastic statement:

People with guns told me.

m0w3r

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I don't see an option for a chicken or small goat. Then, I may be a little old fashioned I guess.

BTCurious

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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Quote from: mobodick on October 29, 2011, 02:42:40 PM

Well, if i could not buy bread with bitcoin i'd be dead in a few weeks, wouldn't i?
So INSTINCTIVELY i see euro's as a bread buyer, but bitcoin not.
But then when i think about it (but that is beyond instinct) i would understand that with some effort i could get a lot more euro's from the 2k BTC.

Yeah, okay, that makes more sense. I thought you were just blatantly generalizing Roll Eyes

ElectricMucus

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Don't exchange physical gold or silver for anything except land or seeds ever.
Maybe food if you really have to... Lips sealed

mobodick

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Quote from: molecular on October 28, 2011, 06:12:06 PM

"Fluctuation" implies 2 objects. What are you measuring fiat fluctuation against?

Fluctuation, usually, describes a value changing over time.
So you compare it against itself at a different point in time.
For doing so you try to keep all other factors as equal through time as possible.

So fluctuation implies at least one value/level/number in a space that changes over time.

mobodick

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Quote from: BTCurious on October 29, 2011, 02:33:22 PM

Quote from: mobodick on October 29, 2011, 02:31:30 PM

What a load of dingo kidneys.

Can i take the silver coins to the bakery and pay for my bread?
No.
So give me the 50,-

Can i take the bitcoin coins to the bakery and get some bread?
No
So give me the 50,-

What a load of dingo kidneys.

So if I offer you 2000 BTC or €50, you would still take the €50, because 2000 BTC can't be used to buy bread?

Well, if i could not buy bread with bitcoin i'd be dead in a few weeks, wouldn't i?
So INSTINCTIVELY i see euro's as a bread buyer, but bitcoin not.
But then when i think about it (but that is beyond instinct) i would understand that with some effort i could get a lot more euro's from the 2k BTC.

And your question is not fair anyway, we were talking about the same ammount of value.
And then the euro wins because i can spend it immediately. It has great liquidity and is accepted everywhere around here.

BTCurious

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^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.

Quote from: mobodick on October 29, 2011, 02:31:30 PM

What a load of dingo kidneys.

Can i take the silver coins to the bakery and pay for my bread?
No.
So give me the 50,-

Can i take the bitcoin coins to the bakery and get some bread?
No
So give me the 50,-

What a load of dingo kidneys.

So if I offer you 2000 BTC or €50, you would still take the €50, because 2000 BTC can't be used to buy bread?

mobodick

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Quote from: molecular on October 28, 2011, 04:44:17 PM

Quote from: Snapman on October 28, 2011, 04:42:16 PM

heh, why is fiat winning? people are zombies following a hunger for paper money.

I tell you why fiat is winning: It's still in the heads. It's indoctrination, we're brought up this way. When you constantly put value on everything using FIAT to compare, at some point, you just internalize Value == FIAT.

What a load of dingo kidneys.

Can i take the silver coins to the bakery and pay for my bread?
No.
So give me the 50,-

Can i take the bitcoin coins to the bakery and get some bread?
No
So give me the 50,-

My intuition says that the 50 euro is far more usefull than the other two.
It's not about indoctrination, it's about usefullness.
If i can go to the groceries shop and buy my stuffs with bitcoin or silver then i will propably value them in the same way.
But at the moment we do not live in such a world.

teukon

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Quote from: BTCurious on October 28, 2011, 08:58:34 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

The third choice looks like monopoly money to me.

This is why the poll is not representative. Half of the world thinks monopoly money is involved

I think this holds for a lot of paper money. I must admit I wasn't able to picture a USD note so I googled for a picture and the notes really don't look valuable to me (even though I know they must be). GBP, EUR, and JPY notes look valuable because I've had experience trading them for goods and services.

Coins on the other hand look valuable even when they are not familiar (particularly if they contain more than a tonne of gold Cheesy

).

Topic: intuitively, which option would you pick? 1, 2 or 3 (see image) (Read 4535 times)