Investment Management. Good ROI. :) Closed.

ndnh

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Quote from: dooglus on October 23, 2016, 10:22:29 AM

Quote from: ndnh on November 03, 2015, 03:20:11 AM

Quote from: BigMac on November 03, 2015, 03:06:51 AM

Correct me if I am wrong, but the current investment ROI does not indicate what the future ROI will be at all, as the future bets are independent from the historical bets, isn't it? Shouldn't you look at the recent site wagered * house edge / total BR to have a better estimate of the expected ROI?

Yeah.
But past ROI is nevertheless indicative that I am not picking sites at random. Grin

Using past ROI is much the same as picking sites at random. You need to look at the expected future ROI not the past.

Quote from: ndnh on November 03, 2015, 03:20:11 AM

theoretical EV is not indicative of actual EV. Wink

Theoretical EV is the same as the actual EV. EV is a theoretical concept.

True. I meant I base future ROI on past wagered amounts.

By actual EV I meant actual ROI. Sorry lol.

Quote from: Daffadile on October 23, 2016, 01:19:38 PM

How can you claim you know of the best and top 5 ROI investments ? Why do you have to say things like that ? It can't be true since there will always be a better investment elsewhere that you just don't know about or never had an opportunity in.

At the time of writing OP, I was actively looking up investment opportunities and finding the most profitable ones. Coinmillions, for example, was very profitable in the beginning before the total bankroll went up. (iirc sold and integrated with Moneypot)

Quote from: cjmoles on October 23, 2016, 01:51:25 PM

I don't get it. Just a few questions: Assuming the sites are fair, wouldn't the best possible EV, for investment purposes, be on those sites which have the highest possible house edge? And, wouldn't ROI be determined by those sites which have the highest possible traffic? Are those factors also considered in these investment opportunities? Also, has the Kelly criterion been audited in the sites under consideration as a risk aversion measure?

Yeah sort of like, ignoring kelly:
Your investment / Total investment * Share of investors in profit * Expected amount wagered * House edge

Quote from: SparkedDev on October 23, 2016, 05:33:35 PM

So wouldn't it be the same as just investing by your self?

Not really.

Quote from: newIndia on October 23, 2016, 02:13:29 PM

I guess, I know 3 out of 4...

Just-Dice, BitDice & MoneyPot ...No? Roll Eyes

Nope.

I am not actually interested in this now. Closed.

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My theory is the more one has polled investment on loses the more you get since you control more of the investment.
But depending on the earnings the cut roi would also be the same based on weight you hold with the other you pooled with.
So wouldn't it be the same as just investing by your self?

dooglus

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Quote from: newIndia on October 23, 2016, 02:13:29 PM

Quote from: ndnh on November 02, 2015, 01:05:20 AM

I have identified 4 sites which have a nice ROI %.

I guess, I know 3 out of 4...

Just-Dice, BitDice & MoneyPot ...No? Roll Eyes

No. You didn't read the thread very well!

newIndia

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Quote from: ndnh on November 02, 2015, 01:05:20 AM

I have identified 4 sites which have a nice ROI %.

I guess, I know 3 out of 4...

Just-Dice, BitDice & MoneyPot ...No? Roll Eyes

dooglus

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Quote from: cjmoles on October 23, 2016, 01:51:25 PM

I don't get it. Just a few questions: Assuming the sites are fair, wouldn't the best possible EV, for investment purposes, be on those sites which have the highest possible house edge?

No. Imagine a site with a high house edge but with no customers. Your expected profit would be zero.

Alternatively, imagine a site with a good house edge and a lot of high volume customers, but with an enormous bankroll, so big that your investment is a tiny drop in the ocean. You will end up getting a tiny share of the site's profit, and so your expect profit is pretty low still.

Thirdly, imagine a site with a good house edge, decent volume, and a reasonable bankroll size, but which takes something like 50% of your expected profit in commission (hey Dean!) - that's going to severely affect the profit you make.

To calculate your expected profit you need to take into account the house edge, the betting volume on the site, what fraction of the bankroll you make up, and how much commission the site charges you.

Quote from: cjmoles on October 23, 2016, 01:51:25 PM

And, wouldn't ROI be determined by those sites which have the highest possible traffic? Are those factors also considered in these investment opportunities? Also, has the Kelly criterion been audited in the sites under consideration as a risk aversion measure?

I think it's pretty much academic, since OP seems to have abandoned his plan to run his hedge fund style investment scheme. But yes, you would want to consider all these things.

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I don't get it. Just a few questions: Assuming the sites are fair, wouldn't the best possible EV, for investment purposes, be on those sites which have the highest possible house edge? And, wouldn't ROI be determined by those sites which have the highest possible traffic? Are those factors also considered in these investment opportunities? Also, has the Kelly criterion been audited in the sites under consideration as a risk aversion measure?

Daffadile

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While you do have super high trust and I see no red flags about you I just wonder why you have this in the gambling section if it is suppose to be an investment ? Or is this investment in a gambling site ?

How can you claim you know of the best and top 5 ROI investments ? Why do you have to say things like that ? It can't be true since there will always be a better investment elsewhere that you just don't know about or never had an opportunity in.

dooglus

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Quote from: ndnh on November 03, 2015, 03:20:11 AM

Quote from: BigMac on November 03, 2015, 03:06:51 AM

Correct me if I am wrong, but the current investment ROI does not indicate what the future ROI will be at all, as the future bets are independent from the historical bets, isn't it? Shouldn't you look at the recent site wagered * house edge / total BR to have a better estimate of the expected ROI?

Yeah.
But past ROI is nevertheless indicative that I am not picking sites at random. Grin

Using past ROI is much the same as picking sites at random. You need to look at the expected future ROI not the past.

Quote from: ndnh on November 03, 2015, 03:20:11 AM

theoretical EV is not indicative of actual EV. Wink

Theoretical EV is the same as the actual EV. EV is a theoretical concept.

ndnh

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Quote from: yahoo62278 on December 04, 2015, 05:28:36 AM

Quote from: vortexz on December 04, 2015, 05:21:03 AM

you haven't posted lately.
How is everything going ?
I would be interested in investing with you

Maybe he lost interest or got busy with other projects? At any rate im sure we will see an update soon. You can also pm him and ask if hes still looking for investors

Yep. Literally forgot about this.

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Quote from: vortexz on December 04, 2015, 05:21:03 AM

you haven't posted lately.
How is everything going ?
I would be interested in investing with you

Maybe he lost interest or got busy with other projects? At any rate im sure we will see an update soon. You can also pm him and ask if hes still looking for investors

vortexz

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you haven't posted lately.
How is everything going ?
I would be interested in investing with you

ndnh

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New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

November 16 to 19.

Start: 119.380475
End: 142.50506

ROI : 19.37%

Daily : 4.84% Annual return : 1767.557%

Number of sites invested : 2

One site fully divested. Reason: Persistent drop in volume. Moved to reserve.
New investment being considered : Just-Dice. Reason: Attractive price of CLAM. (Only part of divestment will be invested. High risk.)

ndnh

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New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

November 6 to 15.

Start: 111.5680148
End: 119.380475

ROI : 7%

Daily : 0.7% Annual return : 255%

Number of sites invested : 3

Investment is one site was halved and transferred to the other two. Full divestment is being considered.
New investment being considered : Just-Dice. Reason: Attractive price of CLAM. (Only part of divestment will be invested. High risk.)

ndnh

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November 6.

Yesterday's index. 108.751148 00 + 4.37 - 2.325 = 110.796148
Today's index. 111.5680148

Today's ROI : 0.69%

Number of sites invested : 3.

Notes:
4.37 was added as new investment and 2.325 withdrawn from investment.
These are my actual investments. And ROI is my actual daily ROI. Index is arrived at by adding up all my invested balances (inclusive of new profit or loss) and dividing by a specific number (so that my actual investment amount remains private).

ndnh

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Quote from: Winalunt on November 05, 2015, 12:45:39 AM

Quote from: ndnh on November 05, 2015, 12:35:13 AM

Edit: These are my actual investments. And ROI is my actual daily ROI. Index is arrived at by adding up all my invested balances (inclusive of new profit or loss) and dividing by a specific number (so that my actual investment amount remains private).

The index thing was going above my head but now i see it is a percentage of investment
anyways, why would you hide it ?

No particular reason lol.

The principle is, only give the information you need to. Cool

It is not a big amount, and it is irrelevant since even if I have 1000000000000BTC or 0.000000000001BTC my ROI would work out to be the same.

Edit: To make things simple I will edit it to 100s.
Done.

Nov 3. 105.5
Nov 4. 106.5 + 0.32 (new investment)
Nov 5. 108.75+ 4.37 (new investment)
Balance : 113.121148

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Quote from: ndnh on November 05, 2015, 12:35:13 AM

Edit: These are my actual investments. And ROI is my actual daily ROI. Index is arrived at by adding up all my invested balances (inclusive of new profit or loss) and dividing by a specific number (so that my actual investment amount remains private).

The index thing was going above my head but now i see it is a percentage of investment
anyways, why would you hide it ?

ndnh

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New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

November 5.

Yesterday's index. 106.799818 75
Today's index. 108. 751148 00

Today's ROI : 1.82709%

Number of sites invested : 3.
New investment : 4.370000 (4.018%)
Today's new index. 113.121148 00*

*used for tomorrow's ROI calculation.

Edit: These are my actual investments. And ROI is my actual daily ROI. Index is arrived at by adding up all my invested balances (inclusive of new profit or loss) and dividing by a specific number (so that my actual investment amount remains private).

ndnh

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New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

November 4.

Yesterday's index. 105. 616554 75
Today's index. 106.480754 00

Today's ROI : 0.818242%

Number of sites invested : 3.
New investment : 319064,75 (0.3%)
Today's new index. 106.799818 75*

*used for tomorrow's ROI calculation.

ndnh

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Of course, all investments have the risk factor.

Quote from: BigMac on November 03, 2015, 03:06:51 AM

Correct me if I am wrong, but the current investment ROI does not indicate what the future ROI will be at all, as the future bets are independent from the historical bets, isn't it? Shouldn't you look at the recent site wagered * house edge / total BR to have a better estimate of the expected ROI?

Yeah.
But past ROI is nevertheless indicative that I am not picking sites at random. Grin

Since I can't disclose the selected sites and the share of investment in each site, I will just instead disclose the ROI earned from today.

Yep, ROI should be calculated as investment * kelly multiplier * wagered * (house edge - commission) / total BR
It is still pretty well an estimate since the past wagered is not indicative of future wagered (and the wagered amount daily is very fluctuating), and the theoretical EV is not indicative of actual EV. Wink

It is used to evaluate which site has a relative edge over which sites. Right now, for example, I don't have any investment in Moneypot or PRC though they are well trusted sites.

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Quote from: ndnh on November 02, 2015, 01:05:20 AM

Just thought would anyone need a service where the interested investors would contribute to the general bankroll which will be allocated and invested in the top 3 to 5 ROI sites.

-snip-

I have identified 4 sites which have a nice ROI %.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the current investment ROI does not indicate what the future ROI will be at all, as the future bets are independent from the historical bets, isn't it? Shouldn't you look at the recent site wagered * house edge / total BR to have a better estimate of the expected ROI?

Topic: Investment Management. Good ROI. :) Closed. (Read 1136 times)