Topic: Investment strategy - page 2. (Read 1785 times)

Forgive my words, it is exactly true that buying or selling listening to feelings is the wrong thing to do since most of the time feeling will tell you to keep holding shares when they are drecreasing and sell them quickly when you reached some profits. Indeed, I wanted to say that I do not want to follow this idea, even if the bitcoin was meant to reach such high values and that it would mean a hell amount of profit.

In fact, I personnaly think that we are all speculating when we think that Bitcoin value will increase, even if this argument is supported by good reasons (in which I believe). Nonetheless, the SSS plan is based on a huge value increase, and its biggest default is that it do not regard any possibilities of the bitcoin losing value, or at least which plan should we follow in this case. This is maybe why, in your second post, you gived me an idea on how I should act in the case of the bitcoin value increased or decreased. But, once more, this idea is still based on the fact that the bitcoin value will grow. The boundaries of this way of doing are that, even if the bitcoin could be meant to be more valuable, it still hard to know until which point.

I personnaly believe that it is important to look at both ways, the value increase that could make us richer, or the value decrease that could prevent us from enjoying any profit if we are not willing to short our positions.

A good investment can be a business itself. you might wanna invest on gambling site as an owner instead of becoming a trader which would need you to have the skills. Learning the trading skills takes time and may require you to lose some money during the first few steps of learning it.

If i were you i owuld just buy some bitcoins and hold onto them, Ive dabbled in the world of altcoins but its a total gamble (not that bitcoin isnt). Ive probably lost more in altcoins than ive gained but maybe you will be the exception to the rule because someone has to gain from them. Out of all the coins though bitcoin is the safest bet, its THE coin and if any of them are going to make it it will be the main man himself. As for when to buy them thats anyones guess. I thought they were to expensive at £150 each so i never bought much, i now think they are too expensive at £300 so ive not bought any. Im sure once they reach £1000 i will think they are too expensive at that price too.

Fair enough. I would be interested to hear what plan would meet your qualifications that does not require you at some point to shift into "trader mode," which means that you are trying to beat professional traders at their own game. Which is hard to do if you are not a professional trader. By my understanding, a good trader is kinda like a good poker player: it's (mostly) about human psychology. Look at what you wrote above: you are going to "buy back when I will feel it's the good moment" (emphasis mine). Ask yourself this: how do traders make their money? Where does it come from? answer: most of it (or at least a sizable chunk) comes from non-professional traders who trade based on their feelings. Therefore, trading based on what you feel the market is going to do in the short term is (arguably) exactly the wrong thing to do.

 

The only thing that I can do is to give my experience and/or my results on it.

First I believe in bitcoin. So my primary investment is to have bitcoin as much as I can. This rule cannot be changed for me. I don't trade with bitcoin because I am not able to do that. But even because don't believe so much on it. Cannot be possible to calculating the movements of the price of bitcoin. I think that is impossible because of to many reasons (decentralization, without owner to take care or manage its value, speculations, impossibility to find or evaluate the demand and its increase etc). So my first rule is to have as much as I can bitcoin and possibly invest it to have even more. So in few words, buy, earn and invest to earn bitcoin.

Regarding its investment I have invested on two other crypto (using bitcoin): horizon and ethereum (which are much more than a simple crypto: are a complex project) hoping in their success as projects and not only as a currency.

I have invested then even in other three businesses online from which I have (or hope to have). There are two-three months that have very good profits from two of those and hope to have much more in the third but not now (it is a long term one). The first two businesses have mostly strong points to believe on those and I am having profit which make me believe that have found good sources to increase my bitcoins and my money (can invested bitcoin and us dollar). The first have more than 5 years online while the second give live all this activity and make vary fair promises like no one other online business. While the third have secured all the investments with an Insurance Fund which for the moment hold and amount in us dollar about 30% more than the overall amount of deposits made since today on that site. All the three businesses declare their source of profit.

This is all. If you need more detailed info pm me.

I agree with you mostly on what you said and I thank you for your advice.

Nonetheless, concerning the following sentence "You will need this inner peace so that when the price goes from $50,000 to $3000, you will not panic sell, but will instead STICK WITH THE PLAN." I would rather fix myself a limit on how much I want to lose, and buy back when I will feel it's the good moment. This is why I would think that fixing a limit in value decrease could prevent from loosing a big reward. In this case, you are right since you stick with the plan, which is the most important rule in investment or trading, but I would not agree with your plan.

Well if you're going to buy BTCBTCBTCs and hold them for a long time then you can consider that a worthy investment already. Same for some alts, Ether maybe?

It's either that or you find a legitimate investment. Avoid trading, it's an unspoken rule for those who aren't seasoned traders that long term holding are much more profitable than frequent trades.

Here's a little more detail on one way to execute the Buy Low, Sell High Plan.

First, decide how much capital you are willing to risk. Decide now that if you lose it ALL, you will at least have done it betting on something you believed in.

Next, decide that you are going to peg your bitcoin investment so that at any given point in time, the percentage of capital in bitcoin is X percent, plus or minus some range. For the sake of argument, let's make it 75% plus or minus 5%. That means you will base your buying and selling so that the value of your bitcoins at any moment in time is always between 70% and 80% of the capital that you have in the game. If bitcoin rises, then you will start to sell it off when your bitcoin investment hits 80%. Then, if bitcoin price falls, you will start to buy some back when the bitcoin percentage hits 70%. If you run the numbers, I think you will find that if the price goes from P, then enters a period of volatility, and ends up right back at P, then your total stash will be increased, even after taking fees and the spread into account. The more the volatility, the greater your profit.

And the great thing is that your actions will help smooth the market. If enough people do this, the ride to the moon will get smoother. You will be providing a service to the community and you will be getting paid for it

Who's with me???


EDIT: Don't forget the first step, the one that even the ballsiest of the bulls will still have trouble doing: make peace with the fact that you could lose it ALL. This is perhaps the MOST IMPORTANT step. You will need this inner peace so that when the price goes from $50,000 to $3000, you will not panic sell, but will instead STICK WITH THE PLAN.

If you could send a message back in time to a younger version of yourself in 2011, when it was at $32, would you tell yourself to be a trader or an investor? (Those are the only two options. You're not allowed to tell yourself what the price is gonna do.) Most would be better off to say investor. 

I would suggest you approach this like an investor rather than a trader. An investor is someone whose belief in the long term potential of bitcoin is based mostly on fundamentals, and is not much affected by price fluctuations, which as you know will give you whiplash from watching it and will likely continue to do so for years. So when the price drops, if anything you might buy a little more. The last thing you do is sell because of a price drop, which is what the majority of trades represent because the majority of trades are executed by traders, not investors. (I don't have numbers to back that up, just a hunch.)

There is a formula called the Sane and Simple Savings plan https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sss-a-sane-and-simple-bitcoin-savings-plan-345065 which is advocated by quite a few on this forum. Basically the idea is that you assume it is going eventually to the moon, and you plan to divest it in tiny increments on its way to the top.

I have been contemplating a modification of the SSS plan, which is to sketch out a formula to buy some back when it falls. You could even set up a bot to handle the sells and buys automatically. And here's the beauty of it: the only way to lose in the long run is for bitcoin to fail utterly. If it takes a nice smooth ride to the moon you are golden. But if it takes a jaggedly, volatile ride to the moon .... drumroll ... you are even BETTER OFF than if it's a smooth ride. That's right, I said it: this modification of SSS (SSS + buy back on dips, according to a formula) allows you to PROFIT FROM VOLATILITY. Which means that while everyone else is getting ulcers, you'll just smile knowing that every 10% down, 10% up fluctuation just increased your stash by - I dunno, a very small percent, but still it will be an increase. Woot!

just my two cents.

Hello everyone,

I am actually facing a wall in figuring out how to invest in Bitcoins or other alt coins.

Indeed, I don't know in the case that the trend is going up, when I should sell my bitcoin and cash the benefits. Moreover, I don't know neither if the trend is going down when I should sell my bitcoins in order to reduce the loss. I am also thinking, for both case, of the amount of my investment that I should sell, 100% or less?

In addition, if we considere that the trend is going up, shall I consider buying more bitcoins? If yes, how should I determine how much?

It is also important to add that I am willing to invest in the long term, and not trade everyday bitcoins.

If would be really kind of you if you could help me with constructive argument, I am already aware that I should invest an amount of money that I can afford to lose . Nevertheless, I am not aware of how to effectively manage my investments.

Thank you in advance for your help.