Is 2019 the new 2015? - page 5. | Bitcointalksearch.org

deisik

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on February 02, 2019, 12:27:20 AM

Quote from: crzy on February 01, 2019, 04:55:48 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

Its hard to tell yet since we have access on a limited trend for 2019, meaning we still have more months to go before to confirm it. 2019 can be a possible sideways trend but I still hope for a more powerful uptrend. The hype can happen again, just make a new development and we will go high again.

price doesn't have to reach the previous ATH for it to be considered in a recovery. what you are talking about in 2020 is the ATH being hit and a new one being set not the recovery itself. the recovery will happen this year for sure. the drops can not go on any longer since they have gone on long enough, you can't really expect price to drop 99.9%!!! we already have about 85% drop. and the sideways may continue for a while but they also can't go on forever. and they also have lasted long enough

Why can't we expect the price to drop so much?

Many altcoins including the top ones have dropped over 90% already (e.g. Litecoin has fallen 17 times from its ATH to its recent low). But how will Bitcoin be much different from them if things turn really bad for it? 3k is still a huge price from any point of view (other than looking at it from the 2017 highs) and there is a lot of room below, so to speak. I hope it won't be like that but saying it is impossible is not a good way to go in both trading and investing

Herbert2020

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Quote from: crzy on February 01, 2019, 04:55:48 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

Its hard to tell yet since we have access on a limited trend for 2019, meaning we still have more months to go before to confirm it. 2019 can be a possible sideways trend but I still hope for a more powerful uptrend. The hype can happen again, just make a new development and we will go high again.

price doesn't have to reach the previous ATH for it to be considered in a recovery. what you are talking about in 2020 is the ATH being hit and a new one being set not the recovery itself. the recovery will happen this year for sure. the drops can not go on any longer since they have gone on long enough, you can't really expect price to drop 99.9%!!! we already have about 85% drop. and the sideways may continue for a while but they also can't go on forever. and they also have lasted long enough.

WinslowIII

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Maybe 2019 will see $160 again like 2015. The only thing that matters is demand, and that's getting weaker with no relief in sight.

deisik

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Quote from: Febo on February 01, 2019, 11:55:05 AM

Quote from: deisik on January 31, 2019, 11:34:11 AM

In fact, no one knows for sure

It is not even a given that the next halving will have any effect on prices at all (unlikely but still). Let's not forget that the reward gets diminished with each halving while the number of coins in circulation constantly increases. In other words, it is like the law of diminishing returns, i.e. with each halving its positive and encouraging effect on prices should necessarily be tapering off, up to a point where it becomes completely irrelevant and massively overridden by a host of other factors

Lets not forget that emission inflation will go under Gold emission inflation for the first time. Gold yearly mining inflation is about 1.5-2%. Bitcoins today's yearly emission inflation is 3.82% At end of 2020 it will go to 1.78%.

Interesting to keep that in mind

But I don't think this will ever have any meaningful impact on price on its own (I mean Bitcoin's annual supply going below the supply of gold in relative terms). Most of gold is used in jewelry anyway (over 50%) while most of Bitcoin is used in speculation, so there is hardly any meaningful correlation as these are two completely different assets used for entirely different purposes

timerland

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Quote from: Febo on January 27, 2019, 12:44:01 PM

Year 2015 started with Bitcoin price at $317. Price then sank and reach bottom two weeks latter at $171. Then hang between $200 and $300 until November when bull market started. And reach $430 at the end of the year. That gave us 35% price increase in 2015.

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190. Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.

Night is darkest right before the dawn.

They won't be complete mirrors of each other, but I think that the general sentiment that was within the market in 2015 was quite similar to what we are experiencing right now. The price movements that we observe are also quite similar.

We can't say for sure that we've bottomed, but I think that we are definitely in a similar circumstance compared to 4 years ago. Prices have dropped 80+% from the peak, which is in line with the bottom which occurred in 2015. We are also a year removed from the end of the bull market of 2017.

If we look at the halving as a benchmark for the start of each market cycle (which has basically happened throughout bitcoin's history), then the patterns do come clear. A recovery might come next year, but I don't think it will happen this year because prices are still consolidating. 2015 and 2019 obviously won't be 100% in line, and market anomalies can and will happen. But right now, prices seem low enough while the fundamentals have improved to say that bitcoin is undervalued.

crzy

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Quote from: ?? on ??

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

Its hard to tell yet since we have access on a limited trend for 2019, meaning we still have more months to go before to confirm it. 2019 can be a possible sideways trend but I still hope for a more powerful uptrend. The hype can happen again, just make a new development and we will go high again.

deisik

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Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2019, 05:50:44 PM

People don't understand that it is important to look at the charts and the different time frames

Yeah, but you are not exempt from this policy either

Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2019, 05:50:44 PM

If any of these noobs paid attention, they would see that January, and basically the first quarter of each year is usually the worst time frame for Bitcoin. Even 2017, the year where the price made an insane run to $20,000 had to deal with a poor first quarter, and we still went from below $900 to $20,000 so it's not important what's playing out in the first quarter

As you suggest the noobs to pay close attention to the price action every January in particular and the first quarter in general, you should be suggested to look at the price action every December and the fourth quarter as well. And then you will see that the price had been rising every December and prior months in preceding years but not in the last October, November, and December. Basically, the pattern your refer to has already been broken

And we are just following the trend

Febo

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Quote from: deisik on January 31, 2019, 11:34:11 AM

Quote from: Febo on January 31, 2019, 10:59:15 AM

Quote from: deisik on January 30, 2019, 04:25:03 AM

Quote from: STT on January 29, 2019, 06:59:39 PM

The anticipation around the next halvening will certainly be an obvious medium term high point I think. Whether it triggers a greater move or not will take time, same as last halvening I can remember that being a dynamic. People focused on the date literally of the block chain but the reduced supply of block reward is the turn of a vice adding pressure to the price not a hammer blow to ignite anything by forced effect - its cumulative

Things were complicated before and after the previous halving

There was a good deal of hype prior to the actual date which allowed the market to be rising for half a year till a few weeks before the halving. Then there was a massive correction in June 2016 due to people booking profits (I told about such a possibility in May), with the Bifinex hack in August adding even more insult to injury. And the real growth started only in September of that year when the effects of the reward halving finally began to kick in

You are talking of the escalated growth. We cant expect that to start in October this year. That will have to wait until mid to end 2020 or even 2021

In fact, no one knows for sure

It is not even a given that the next halving will have any effect on prices at all (unlikely but still). Let's not forget that the reward gets diminished with each halving while the number of coins in circulation constantly increases. In other words, it is like the law of diminishing returns, i.e. with each halving its positive and encouraging effect on prices should necessarily be tapering off, up to a point where it becomes completely irrelevant and massively overridden by a host of other factors

Lets not forget that emission inflation will go under Gold emission inflation for the first time. Gold yearly mining inflation is about 1.5-2%. Bitcoins today's yearly emission inflation is 3.82% At end of 2020 it will go to 1.78%.

exstasie

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Quote from: 1Referee on January 31, 2019, 05:50:44 PM

If any of these noobs paid attention, they would see that January, and basically the first quarter of each year is usually the worst time frame for Bitcoin.

I see what you're saying, but I think there's way too little historical data to make generalizations like that. If you look at 2011 and 2013, January was very bullish and preceded bubble phases. It's all about the long term market cycles, which don't really care about our Gregorian calendar so much.

1Referee

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Quote from: mirakal on January 29, 2019, 11:18:10 PM

It's bad to conclude that this year is not gonna be good for the market as that will not show your support.
I'm saying this year is gonna be a good year, I don't know if it will happen but I believe good things are about to come.

People don't understand that it is important to look at the charts and the different time frames.

If any of these noobs paid attention, they would see that January, and basically the first quarter of each year is usually the worst time frame for Bitcoin. Even 2017, the year where the price made an insane run to $20,000 had to deal with a poor first quarter, and we still went from below $900 to $20,000 so it's not important what's playing out in the first quarter.

With the block halving coming up I'm pretty certain that the second quarter will be the start of a gradual increase, especially with how people know that halvings translate into price increases before the actual event itself. And who knows, perhaps that Bakkt and other institutions will start silently accumulating in advance as well. Makes perfect sense if they do.

jrrsparkles

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Price movement of bitcoin is one of unresolved mystery in this world so don't exoect something to be happen which was happened earleir because there are some people who will take the advantage of it and ill make money from most people's thought.Just invest based on your opinion asking others maybe some kind of manipulation involved.

deisik

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Quote from: Febo on January 31, 2019, 10:59:15 AM

Quote from: deisik on January 30, 2019, 04:25:03 AM

Quote from: STT on January 29, 2019, 06:59:39 PM

The anticipation around the next halvening will certainly be an obvious medium term high point I think. Whether it triggers a greater move or not will take time, same as last halvening I can remember that being a dynamic. People focused on the date literally of the block chain but the reduced supply of block reward is the turn of a vice adding pressure to the price not a hammer blow to ignite anything by forced effect - its cumulative

Things were complicated before and after the previous halving

There was a good deal of hype prior to the actual date which allowed the market to be rising for half a year till a few weeks before the halving. Then there was a massive correction in June 2016 due to people booking profits (I told about such a possibility in May), with the Bifinex hack in August adding even more insult to injury. And the real growth started only in September of that year when the effects of the reward halving finally began to kick in

You are talking of the escalated growth. We cant expect that to start in October this year. That will have to wait until mid to end 2020 or even 2021

In fact, no one knows for sure

It is not even a given that the next halving will have any effect on prices at all (unlikely but still). Let's not forget that the reward gets diminished with each halving while the number of coins in circulation constantly increases. In other words, it is like the law of diminishing returns, i.e. with each halving its positive and encouraging effect on prices should necessarily be tapering off, up to a point where it becomes completely irrelevant and massively overridden by a host of other factors

Febo

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Quote from: deisik on January 30, 2019, 04:25:03 AM

Quote from: STT on January 29, 2019, 06:59:39 PM

The anticipation around the next halvening will certainly be an obvious medium term high point I think. Whether it triggers a greater move or not will take time, same as last halvening I can remember that being a dynamic. People focused on the date literally of the block chain but the reduced supply of block reward is the turn of a vice adding pressure to the price not a hammer blow to ignite anything by forced effect - its cumulative

Things were complicated before and after the previous halving

There was a good deal of hype prior to the actual date which allowed the market to be rising for half a year till a few weeks before the halving. Then there was a massive correction in June 2016 due to people booking profits (I told about such a possibility in May), with the Bifinex hack in August adding even more insult to injury. And the real growth started only in September of that year when the effects of the reward halving finally began to kick in

You are talking of the escalated growth. We cant expect that to start in October this year. That will have to wait until mid to end 2020 or even 2021.

Oceat

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Quote from: mirakal on January 29, 2019, 11:18:10 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

We are just in the first month of the year, don't give up early, we still have 11 months to wait and see.

It's bad to conclude that this year is not gonna be good for the market as that will not show your support.
I'm saying this year is gonna be a good year, I don't know if it will happen but I believe good things are about to come.

Yeah right, there are more days to expect and speculate of the price. I am just waiting what would be the results along the way, may it good or bad. Just keep holding or stay away at the market if it is too stressing. Then come back if everything seems to feel like there's a change already.

deisik

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Quote from: STT on January 29, 2019, 06:59:39 PM

The anticipation around the next halvening will certainly be an obvious medium term high point I think. Whether it triggers a greater move or not will take time, same as last halvening I can remember that being a dynamic. People focused on the date literally of the block chain but the reduced supply of block reward is the turn of a vice adding pressure to the price not a hammer blow to ignite anything by forced effect - its cumulative

Things were complicated before and after the previous halving

There was a good deal of hype prior to the actual date which allowed the market to be rising for half a year till a few weeks before the halving. Then there was a massive correction in June 2016 due to people booking profits (I told about such a possibility in May), with the Bifinex hack in August adding even more insult to injury. And the real growth started only in September of that year when the effects of the reward halving finally began to kick in

rhomelmabini

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Quote from: Febo on January 27, 2019, 12:44:01 PM

Year 2019 started with Bitcoin price at $3740. Two weeks before that price reached current bottom at $3190. Price of Bitcoin should hang between $3500 and $5500 until October when bull market will start. And reach $8000 at end of the year.

Somehow this is a good post for argument but somehow price is not always determined from past sometimes it determined by other factors like rapid adoption and many more.

That might be the case to happen but as I said this will not be the same as from past all we have to do is wait for your prediction until October and there might be a chance that this will happen.

Adriano2010

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We can't say 100% what will happen, we can make only speculation and wait to see what will happen, but yes this year can have some similarities with 2015 regardings bitcoin price, but i not think the price will go below 3000$ so i will just hold what i have and get more.

mirakal

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Quote from: ?? on ??

It seems so. A recovery may occur only by 2020 or 2021.

We are just in the first month of the year, don't give up early, we still have 11 months to wait and see.

It's bad to conclude that this year is not gonna be good for the market as that will not show your support.
I'm saying this year is gonna be a good year, I don't know if it will happen but I believe good things are about to come.

mirakal

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The scenario is good although we might experience another down trend, but that's alright as long as it will end up positive.

2015 is 3 years ago but it's possible, this market has trends and it happens most of the time, so I'm not thinking of quitting anytime soon.
I know one day it will start to rally, I mean big rally that will make us start speculating on the positive move.

STT

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Quote from: 7jaka7 on January 29, 2019, 12:13:01 PM

I think it may take more time for next bull run. I think the bigger the exposure in news more dumb* people there is. So the whole cycle takes longer to repeat itself. Maybe next halvening will be turning point.
I still think this is pretty accurate prediction.

*People who does it like "buy high, sell low"
http://i66.tinypic.com/ezmt51.jpg

The anticipation around the next halvening will certainly be an obvious medium term high point I think. Whether it triggers a greater move or not will take time, same as last halvening I can remember that being a dynamic. People focused on the date literally of the block chain but the reduced supply of block reward is the turn of a vice adding pressure to the price not a hammer blow to ignite anything by forced effect - its cumulative.

So as always there is an anticipation of the movement but more importantly the actual fundamental effect is there but takes place over months

Topic: Is 2019 the new 2015? - page 5. (Read 1192 times)