Is Bitcoin antifragile? - page 2. | Bitcointalksearch.org

OROBTC

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Quote from: deisik on April 08, 2020, 02:41:05 PM

Quote from: fiulpro on April 08, 2020, 02:07:30 PM

Unfortunately if the natural selection we are talking about will go according to a virus which can mutate anytime I do not think we will have a better chance of surviving this selection that you are taking about

This virus is nothing compared to what humanity went through (smallpox, plague, polio, to name but just a few)

Regardless, as the overall opinion seems to be mostly anti antifragile, could anyone come up with anything which would however remotely count as antifragile, whatever that might be? Just to make sure that we go a little bit beyond a simple "I do not agree with this"

Agreed re terrible viruses mankind has had to deal with over the millennia.

* * *

Re antifragile, I believe the concept of "antifragile" can be looked at as a matter of degree. That is, something might be more antifragile (in relation to the stock market say) or less so. In that sense, BTC is clearly antifragile, it tends to be relatively stronger as other assets are often weaker. Not a 100% (inverse) correlation, but BTC has held up well all things considered.

There are no assets I can think of right now that is 100% inversely-correlated with other assets.

N. N. Taleb himself has written that gold is antifragile.

Gold is some 10% - 11% below its all-time high price (US$, ATH in 2011). Our (US) stock market would be some 19% below (ATH in February 2020). Gold is inversely correlated with stocks, though not 100%. BTC is down some 63% from its ATH in late 2017. Note that all three of these asset classes reached their ATH's in completely different years.

Great thread, by the way.

deisik

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Quote from: fiulpro on April 08, 2020, 02:07:30 PM

Unfortunately if the natural selection we are talking about will go according to a virus which can mutate anytime I do not think we will have a better chance of surviving this selection that you are taking about

This virus is nothing compared to what humanity went through (smallpox, plague, polio, to name but just a few)

Regardless, as the overall opinion seems to be mostly anti antifragile, could anyone come up with anything which would however remotely count as antifragile, whatever that might be? Just to make sure that we go a little bit beyond a simple "I do not agree with this"

DarkDays

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Quote from: deisik on April 07, 2020, 02:21:39 AM

Quote from: DarkDays on April 06, 2020, 07:31:24 PM

We're nowhere near that point yet, since people still peg Bitcoin to the USD

You likely meant to say they value Bitcoin in USD, right?

They most certainly do, and so what? Gold is valued in dollars too (or whatever), but can we say that it doesn't have "value in and of itself"? If we can say so (let's assume that for a moment), then how does the dollar itself have any value at all in the first place? Anyway you come to think of it, the dollar valuation is not relevant to the question

Further, and I said that in the OP, there's no all-out antifragility (Taleb says essentially the same, just in case). To be more specific, we saw BitMEX triggering massive liquidations of long positions (like 1B dollar worth liquidated). So here's the question, did this make Bitcoin stronger or weaker, and why exactly?

I'm saying Bitcoin is still measure in USD, which means it practically has a floating dollar peg.

In order for Bitcoin to be truly anti-fragile, I would say it needs to have value in and of itself, or be the peg. e.g. USD should be pegged in Bitcoin, not vice-versa.

fiulpro

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Quote from: deisik on April 06, 2020, 07:38:19 AM

If you don't know what antifragility is, as Nassem Taleb defines it, you may want to read his book on the subject matter

Put succinctly, antifragility with respect to Bitcoin refers to its becoming stronger as everything else around it tumbles and falls apart. Well, as Taleb himself points out, there's no absolute antifragility, and it necessarily comes at the expense of something else, the latter being the source of antifragility as such. For example, humanity as a whole becomes more resistant to Covid-19 specifically because some people die from it (natural selection at work)

So the question is, if Bitcoin is antifragile (which seems to be the case in certain or even most life circumstances), what does its antifragility come from? As recent events have shown (e.g. the coronavirus pandemic), Bitcoin gains where regular currencies fail, especially cash payments, or even when it itself takes a hit (e.g. BitMEX's little shenanigans). But that's definitely not the only reason which gives rise to, and more generally facilitates, its antifragile nature

I would like to look into this matter deeper and in greater detail - with your help, of course. Please share your thoughts

Unfortunately if the natural selection we are talking about will go according to a virus which can mutate anytime I do not think we will have a better chance of surviving this selection that you are taking about 😂.

But more or so Bitcoins is not antifragile but a certain degree of stability is provided by the fact that the price of Bitcoins is invariably changed by the individual people , which is not controlled by any body , so it stays in balance somehow most of the times.

But this also have certain exceptions :- like when whales decides to increase or decrease the price , it certainly makes a huge difference and creates problem for the community.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: deisik on April 06, 2020, 10:35:32 AM

Actually, the recent crash demonstrates that Bitcoin is quite antifragile

Its price as of today is the same as it was just 3 months ago, so we can't even say that Bitcoin crashed and never came up. Of course it crashed but it was an obvious and outrageous market manipulation on the part of BitMEX. Did it hurt Bitcoin? It definitely hurt Bitcoin traders (with some of them likely losing millions in the process) but did it undermine their faith in the cryptocurrency as such?

Bitcoin fell because the stock market fell, and now it recovered because it also recovered. This is the opposite of "antifragile", since it follows the stocks/global economy instead of being a hedge against it. You can't pin it all on BitMex alone, if this was the case Bitcoin would be crashing and pumping like that every week - it was clearly a correlation with the stock market that reacted to governments declaring quarantine.

Twentyonepaylots

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Quote from: semobo on April 08, 2020, 12:27:58 PM

We can't say it is anti fragile because its complete decentralization cause the manipulation as well but its the best out of others among what we have.People will realize cryptos are far better than people thought and this covid might helped them to realize that.Maybe in future it will become one and more better than gold, yes for now gold is the safe heaven but bitcoin is profitable now than buying golds.

Is that what you call, antifragile, if people behind decentralized network decided not to sell amidst the threat of coronavirus? I don't think it fits the bitcoin. This is the first time I encounter this term, I conclude
the OP is just too obsess with what is happening right now that he come to think of this term. Well from the meaning of it, it gains from disorder, does not count with bitcoin since it already dumped just before the virus has spread around the world. Aside, bitcoin could be left nothing if people lost their trust with bitcoin, and could just easily jump into another coin after all.

kryptqnick

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Quote from: deisik on April 06, 2020, 10:35:32 AM

Quote from: Sanugarid on April 06, 2020, 08:00:07 AM

Take note that bitcoin significantly dropped hard last month, and in that case I can conclude that bitcoin is not as antifragile as what you are trying to say. World's struggling yet bitcoin is off until now, maybe this will give the answer to you mate

Actually, the recent crash demonstrates that Bitcoin is quite antifragile

Its price as of today is the same as it was just 3 months ago, so we can't even say that Bitcoin crashed and never came up. Of course it crashed but it was an obvious and outrageous market manipulation on the part of BitMEX.

I don't know about that, it really looked like the reason for Bitcoin's crash in the first place was the panic surrounding the official announcement by the WHO of COVID-19 being a pandemic. Just when that happened, I've watched an interview with Antonopoulos who also said that Bitcoin was meant to go down when the economic crisis comes, at least at first. What happens then - well, I guess there hasn't been enough time to determine how Bitcoin will behave while everything else is going down. Bitcoin currently seems to be recovering, but it can easily change overnight. The pandemic doesn't seem to be near its end, so for now, it's hard to say if Bitcoin's actually antifragile.

Thomasplmmr

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As long as it is pegged to the dollar and treated like a commodity rather than currency it will not be anti fragile. The price dropped because people needed money during an uncertain time. Our goal should be that people need bitcoin in uncertain times. This requires adoption. This requires a conversation via blogs, vlogs, news stories, and good old pavement pounding by people willing to get out there and find ways to make money through spreading adoption. The speculation and resulting volatility are the biggest hurdles atm.

semobo

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We can't say it is anti fragile because its complete decentralization cause the manipulation as well but its the best out of others among what we have.People will realize cryptos are far better than people thought and this covid might helped them to realize that.Maybe in future it will become one and more better than gold, yes for now gold is the safe heaven but bitcoin is profitable now than buying golds.

wingfield_crypto

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Quote from: deisik on April 06, 2020, 07:38:19 AM

If you don't know what antifragility is, as Nassem Taleb defines it, you may want to read his book on the subject matter

Put succinctly, antifragility with respect to Bitcoin refers to its becoming stronger as everything else around it tumbles and falls apart. Well, as Taleb himself points out, there's no absolute antifragility, and it necessarily comes at the expense of something else, the latter being the source of antifragility as such. For example, humanity as a whole becomes more resistant to Covid-19 specifically because some people die from it (natural selection at work)

So the question is, if Bitcoin is antifragile (which seems to be the case in certain or even most life circumstances), what does its antifragility come from? As recent events have shown (e.g. the coronavirus pandemic), Bitcoin gains where regular currencies fail, especially cash payments, or even when it itself takes a hit (e.g. BitMEX's little shenanigans). But that's definitely not the only reason which gives rise to, and more generally facilitates, its antifragile nature

I would like to look into this matter deeper and in greater detail - with your help, of course. Please share your thoughts

I do not agree with this antifrafility of BTC. With this COVID 19 pandemic, the entire crypto market has suffered, with the prices of currencies dropping sharply. Let's not forget that the BTC had reached the price of $ 4,000. Currently Bitcoin is recovering slowly but surely, but as you can see in the coinmarketcap chart, the other currencies are recovering. So Bitcoin is not the only survivor, but the Bitcoin trend follows the general trend.

yazher

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It could be real but because of its volatility that always occurred every year, This will not happen as they said. But the good thing about it, it will always recover whenever its price has fallen. never in the history of bitcoin that it stays at a low price without recovering, it always recovers. Unlike the other coins that have no assurance whether they will come back or not. Bitcoin has a strong remarkable stronghold even in the midst of a pandemic, its price hasn't been down to under a thousand dollar.

pooya87

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it depends on how you define terms such as "strong" versus "fragile". if the only factor you consider is the price the the answer to your question is simply no. it is because the bitcoin market is still pretty small and the order books are not yet as packed as they should (for a lot of reasons). that means the price remains very volatile and at times susceptible to manipulation.

but if the factor you consider are the factors that make bitcoin what it really is which is a decentralized currency then the answer is obviously yes. nothing can change the fact that bitcoin is completely secure, decentralized, global, censorship resistant, fast payment system without a middle man.

Lizzylove1

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Bitcoin certainly has withstood this global financial turmoil caused by the novel covid-19 against predictions. The theorem about bitcoin been anti-fragile may as well be a complex academic discuss. We have seem bitcoin die may times and quickly always resurrect which is what has always give people a great confidence.

Bitcoinislife09

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Quote from: Sanugarid on April 06, 2020, 08:00:07 AM

I trynna what antifragile really means out of the theory, just take it literally the word itself it might not suit the bitcoin just because we are facing a disease across the globe. Gold does not seem to be bothered these days but I haven't seen any person called it antifragile too. Take note that bitcoin significantly dropped hard last month, and in that case I can conclude that bitcoin is not as antifragile as what you are trying to say. World's struggling yet bitcoin is off until now, maybe this will give the answer to you mate.

In this situation the price of bitcoin is rising but not that high. Bitcoin nowadays is essential because we can use it in making payments immediately. Through bitcoin someone doesn't need to go outside the home to pay their bills. The price of the bitcoin will possible drop down but it is not alarming, that is why you have to make investment, there are websites that are accepting bitcoin investments. Through that you just have to wait for the charts and trades and your money may grow higher. I think bitcoin is not antifragile because it may drop down but not that low. The world is really struggling but there is a God who can help us in all these struggles.

perfect999

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I think Bitcoin will only get tough as more people get to recognize it and start investing. Right now I wouldn’t say that it has gotten that strong, because even it was affected by the recent pandemic. Even gold that is very stable and has been around for a very long time was affected by the pandemic along the line.

So the way I see bitcoin, even if gets to the level of gold and become really stable, when situations like these arise it will still be getting affected. But one thing I’m very sure is that whatever happens, Bitcoin will always be able to recover really quickly. Just like it has been doing since and even recently; the price decreased and still got back up and currently at $7300+.

deisik

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Quote from: DarkDays on April 06, 2020, 07:31:24 PM

We're nowhere near that point yet, since people still peg Bitcoin to the USD

You likely meant to say they value Bitcoin in USD, right?

They most certainly do, and so what? Gold is valued in dollars too (or whatever), but can we say that it doesn't have "value in and of itself"? If we can say so (let's assume that for a moment), then how does the dollar itself have any value at all in the first place? Anyway you come to think of it, the dollar valuation is not relevant to the question

Further, and I said that in the OP, there's no all-out antifragility (Taleb says essentially the same, just in case). To be more specific, we saw BitMEX triggering massive liquidations of long positions (like 1B dollar worth liquidated). So here's the question, did this make Bitcoin stronger or weaker, and why exactly?

Ucy

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The features of Bitcoin is actually what makes it antifragile, in my opinion... Features such as decentralization, immutablity, deflationary currency, censorship resistant, privacy/anonymity, transparency etc... If you keep weakening or strengthening any of the feature, the antifragile strength of Bitcoin will be weakened or strengthened.

TheUltraElite

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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)

It comes down to the same discussion of whether bitcoin will be the safe haven of money if the world economies collapse. The answer is No, which might sound like a stab in the heart for the bitcoin users, but the hard truth is to be accepted.

If ever economies do collapse, like DarkDays says, like another depression, people will focus more on buying stuff for feeding their stomach and just surviving the days. The concept of investment comes when the basic necessities of life have been dealt with, not the other way around. So those who even had some bitcoins would sell those for liquid cash to use for buying stuff they need.

Then again, the acceptance of bitcoin is non-uniform if you look into the world maps. So it is out of the question of whether bitcoin is antifragile or not, It is fragile, like any other asset.

davis196

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No,Bitcoin is not antifragile.The stock market went down due to the coronavirus panic,and Bitcon went down too.Now,the Bitcoin price is recovering faster than stock prices,but that doesn't mean that Bitcoin is stronger.
"Antifragile" means a business/industry or economic structure(like a marketplace) that gets stronger and grows,when all the other structures and industries are going down.The crypto industry isn't growing nowadays,there's no increasing number of newcomers,who are buying crypto for the first time.

DarkDays

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I don't believe it is anti-fragile. At least not yet.

Although Bitcoin can definitely withstand some punishment, I don't think the network is strong enough to survive a full-blown economic collapse—similar to that seen in the great depression.

Instead, I think that people will flock towards assets with known, sustained value, rather than extremely volatile cryptocurrencies—including Bitcoin.

Once the network becomes strong enough, and the fundamentals reach a point whereby Bitcoin has value in and of itself (without being compared against other currencies) then I would say it has truly reached a state where it can be considered anti-fragile.

We're nowhere near that point yet, since people still peg Bitcoin to the USD.

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