We went below $50 last week, what if this is just the start of the correction. I know it'd take a lot of real bad news but its possible. The Bitcoin price was stress tested and it crumbled but the whole bitcoin network is growing larger and stronger all the time but the powers that be could shut every (major) exchange within a month if they wanted to.
Look at this this way: During the majority of it's existence as a practical application it has been valued between sub dollar and 10 dollars. Practical uses for Bitcoin include: Silk Road, other illegal stuff, small scale money laundering and donating to your favourite website.
Then there is the cargo cult which includes: Bitcoin ATMs, Bitcoin stock exchanges, cancerous endeavours like bitpay, and the army of Internet zealots preaching the gospel. They provide zero economic value and always end in disaster. (The pirate ponzi, bitcoinica, Bruce Wagner & the bitcoin show, GLBSE, etc...)
I agree. The value of Bitcoin has nothing to do with it as a practical application. Bitcoin works just fine at $2 as it does at $200. Bitcoin usage could surge 50000% and the USD rate of Bitcoin could very easily go down. People using it as a currency doesn't cause the price to go up.
People seem to think the exchange rate of Bitcoin is tied to how well it's doing. How many people are using it. How many businesses are accepting it. When really it has nothing to do with any of those factors.
The price is based on supply/demand, day traders, investors and market manipulation. When someone dumps 50,000 BTC and the price tanks, that doesn't mean Bitcoin is suddenly "doing worse". When someone blows $300,000 buying Bitcoins driving the price up, that doesn't mean Bitcoin is "doing great". The exchanges are their own entity in the Bitcoin ecosystem. The exchange could be up while adotion/usage is down. Exchange could be down while usage/adoption is up. The link between the two is iffy at best.
Anyone projecting Bitcoin value is talking out of their ass. It's an unregulated exchange, no oversight, no transparency, and the more money you have the more influence you have on the price. The swings are based on a small group of people dumping or a small group of people pumping. Currently when the price starts sliding, people read that as "bad news, sell". When the price is rallying people read that as "good news, buy". When most times it's a handful of people throwing their weight around on the exchange.
Yes but this is the (price) speculation sub-forum and this post is about the bitcoin price (value) not about the values of using bitcoin its self. I've been very interested in bitcoin since I first properly heard about it in 2011 and litecoin since its inception. I was suggesting the potential low (price) of bitcoin this year and that would ever be reached again. If the price did drop that low it would only increase my purchase amounts. I've been with bitcoin since ~$5 and to floor at $30 two years later would still be a healthy above inflation growth. For the record I expect another major and even bigger rally about six months after the next block reward halving if the network continue to grow for bitcoin over the next four years as they have done for the last four years. Followed by a correction again. Also that floor price is about as low as I think is possible at all to be ever reached again and even then it would take some major amounts of bad news. Or for the growing pains to get even worse yet.
The price on these exchanges don't mean much about the actual value of a Bitcoin at this moment. It's still too early to say if it is over valued. Wait a few more years.
You have to agree tho for people who have been steadly buying bitcoins for at least a couple of years now. That to see price rises of that magnitude so quickly can cause nerves and to a correction is actually settling. Unlike the new money that came in on the bubble the price drop is disheartening. Tho after seeing the 2011 bubble as well maybe more of those who bought in at the top may stay in longer this time compared to the amount of short selling in the months after the 2011 bubble. I don't think the media will be able to call bitcoins death if the price was even to drop >$20 this time. I think/hope the price stays $50<$100 for a while before continuing on a stable growth. As sudden massive price rises and changes are not the best for the whole system to grow. Even if massive price rises bring lots of press attention and therefore even higher price rises. The only reason the bubble popped like in 2011 was due to growing pains of the system and not actual failures of the bitcoin protocol
