Topic: Is BTC still in a 1150 USD buble...? (Read 2433 times)

this is how you know you're doing it wrong.

I marvel more and more on china volume present and past.
is this shit fake or real?
at the end we may see that all this china deal wasn't so important after all

Price before october was  suppressed for sure, maybe china was mere sparkle in the cellar full of gun powder 

Wow... theres is "no evidence"... did you mean that really...? Well theres a ton of evidence... i really better get quickly back to "trust only yourself" mode, because so far being here on this forum just led me to be more optimistic than i should. There is a ton of evidence that the price is still overshoot. I was doing some basic noob stastic stuff and it gave me results similiar to what i have thought before... Im doing this to figure out if i should sell my bitcoins now, wait for the drop, buy them back (and realize a profit in the mean time) but again i might be wrong and lose them...

So im calling it right here, right now... i belive that bitcoin is still in its buble stage and the price is still overshot and i belive that it will come down to around 450 USD (or even lower :-( ?) and be stabilize its position around this level for several weeks if not months. I belive the price could reach the level somewhere in the mid January 2014.

So lets see what happens :-), im myself curious, if i am right, i hope so because that would give my other predictions more value :-).

Lets see...

Is there anyone who thinks the price is still overshot and belive in the level around 450 dolars?

According to my "studies" (noobish as hell i must admit, but still i got some statistics courses at university (but really nothing special)) the price could reach a STABLE 10 000 level around middle of August 2015. It could be sooner, but that would be in a buble, stable 10 000 USD price around August 2015 (if Govs. doesnt ban BTC worldwide :-) ).

Stable 1000 USD price should be reached according to my calculations around July 2014.

(i was calculating with weighted price (dont really know what that means :-) but it should be more accurate than LOW and HIGH values each day), with day charts from MTGOx since 17.7.2010 till now (29.12.2013). Used a log scale and and a linear ("straight" :-) ) trendline. Noobish analysis done in Excel :-).)

But thats just a mathematical numbers calculations... Govs. of the world can simple come out in a month and announce on some economic meeting that they are banning bitcoin (for whatever reason theyll come up with) and the price is DEAD and my "analysis" funny at least :-). Or also we could have some funds or or i dont know what which will come into bitcoin, thus boosting its price quite a lot... So its hard to tell, but i think the price is currently still overshot and i belive in a 450 USD bitcoins stable price around mid. january 2014.

Do you know how annoyed I am that I didn't take advantage of $450? Five weeks ago after some thinking about it I calculated $450 as the bottom - no joke - but then being a bit of a noob and getting all freaked out by the China news, when the time came I didn't catch it, not even close!

Agree. I think you saw 450 for the last time, ever. Personally, I'd like to see it again but I'd be very surprised to see it get even as low as 550/600.  ....unless some significant bad news came out. Not like China but out of the US or Europe.

I honestly don't believe we are going to stabilise at $450 for several months. There is no evidence this will happen.

Guess I'm more of a honey and butterflies person really.

Well, firstly, i didnt saw and see any dumps on china BTC exchange yesterday... view http://bitcoinwisdom.com/
nothing there

Secondly, i really dont think that BTC is out of buble... what happened two weeks ago was just sudden drop in price just like in aprial, but i belive that btc still didnt stabilized its price, its stabilizess its price when the price doesnt move much around many weeks or even months, and BTC price currently really isnt stable...
But i get the point, again a ton of naive people without any market experience thinking that future is just honey and butterflies :-)...


I ask the question differently, is there anyone that thinks, that bitcoin price is still in a buble stage and that it will still go down (Around 450) an stabilizes itself around this value for several months?

you are right,China might come back (I suppose it as well) but by "done" I meant China will not have that Impact which it had last month.
Taxation and regulation will have Impact within China,but not outside.

Foreign as non-US?

And China is not "done" yet, they will come back to bitcoin with taxation and regulation.
So much money to be made, I don't believe they can do that in the future

what kind of pressure do you see?

If BTC price hangs on for another few months to a month I think we'll be golden and it'll continue to rise.  I see pressure for the near term but it's held up well so far, surprisingly.

I agree completely.
China is "done"
Now we see the real value of bitcoin without any foreign "bubbling" influence

It happened already nearly two weeks ago. I advise you to try to accept that and catch up with where we are now.

January is traditionally bullish in Bitcoin and generally.

There is evidence that the prices on Gox, Stamp etc. are becoming more resistant to Chinese news. According to another member here yesterday there was some dumping on a Chinese exchange but this was not followed by the western exchanges. People are now very used to the idea that Bitcoin is limited in China and with everyone looking to 31 January as a telling moment for China, I believe it will be a bit of a non-event when the day comes.

Anyway according to historical figures I think that we are roughly at the right price for Bitcoin today (should be around $765-$775) and that the next few months are going to be bullish (for Bitcoin meaning up and down but in an overall upwards direction).

Hi Kaliber1,
nice to see you as full member with acces to all sections.
Now you can "teach" us "westerners" about Chinese thinking  and decision making.
I am not sure Chinese government has made the final decision about bitcoins.
No official Statement up to now.
Kind regards
segeln

Yup, volume at BTCC is a lot lower now. Why? Because it is no longer the largest exchange in China.
24 hours volume at Huobi (https://www.huobi.com) is over 61000 at this moment.

Bitcoin is not dead in China, though BTCChina has lost most of its business since the introduction of fee.

Is it lol? So how much did BTC china did (volume) at its top?

Seriously... Are you stupid:? Dont you get my point..? Or... Ow... You bought at the top 1150 dollars and now you worried about people telling the possibility that its still in a buble stage so people might sell off and bring the price even lower... Well honey im sorry, but i belive in the short term the price will be go down :-).

BTC CHINA, the biggest exchange is gone from 110000 BTC to 3000 as of today. I would say it's not dead but we are really near.

Do a curve fit of bitcoin's price:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgTzm1g10zm2g25zl
That's a log chart.  Bitcoin's price trend is practically a straight line -- except for the bubbles.
It shows remarkably consistent underlying exponential growth; price has returned to the trendline after previous bubbles.
Assuming the chart is useful as a forecasting tool (and that's a big if), it supports your thesis that the price is too high right now; it's well above the trendline.  But that doesn't  necessarily mean the price will fall very much.  It might trade in a fairly narrow range for quite some time.  If such behaviour were to continue long enough, the fundamentals will catch up with the price.  But that could take months.  So _if_ we may see a continuation of the apparent historical trend of an underlying support that increases consistently and exponentially, then we can expect either a price drop or months of "trading sideways," as the expression goes.
You could download the historical price data, load the (logarithm of) the datapoints into a spreadsheet, do a linear regression and get a quantitative forecast.