Topic: Is Chances of Winning in Gambling Higher? - page 2. (Read 621 times)

Not exactly sure what you mean here. Care to add more details ? Like whats your base bet, whats your subsequent bet after your first loss ? First of all none of the gambling websites will give you 0 house edge, because that would mean your or them have an equal chance of winning. And even if they did, from what I have seen, it doesn't mean you will have an edge by changing your betting pattern.

Hah! Chances in gambling totally depend on your luck at the respective moment. We cannot predict it, "strategies" won't help us either. It's all about them making your mind believe they work, but in the long run (or even in the short one) you usually end up losing more than you planned to.

What a gambling platform you used for take this calculation?
What you think gamble have a big % win chance? 75% win chance is so high result I think.
With your calculation W & L with % that's no guarantees if in the first bet you can win, means 50% chance win in the first bet is also big calculation.

I just did some calculations. According to them, chances of winning in gambling comes out to be around 75%. Please correct me if I'm wrong somewhere


My assumptions-

I'm considering a case, with zero house edge.
It would be X2 if you win. And you get 0 of you lose.
Each game would charge 1 Bitcoin. Which means, 2 Bitcoin if I win, 0 if I lose.
I have 1000 Bitcoin ( many Bitcoins) in the balance of company X (Gambling Website)
Chances of winning and losing are equally likely - 50%
I would withdraw all my balance as soon as my balance becomes 1001 Bitcoins
I'm betting in two player Roulette. (I'm not talking about any sports bet)


So here it goes,

Here L  represents Lost game and W represents  win.  I'm writing the chances of event occurring in front of it. So, LWW means that I lose first game, and win second and third game giving me a net profit of 1 Bitcoin.

Cases which could lead to 1001 Bitcoins,

W -50%
LWW -12.5%
LWLWW -3.125%
LLWWW - 3.125%
LLLWWWW - 0.78125%
LLWLWWW- 0.78125%
LLWWLWW- 0.78125%
LWLWLWW- 0.78125%
LWLLWWW- 0.78125%

You can further continue this.

This sums up to be 72.65 %

Which means you have higher chances of winning in gambling if you follow these assumptions.




Edit 1: I have considered that you can bet each time exactly 1 Bitcoin.

Consider a case , I lose first game (represented by L), so my balance becomes 999 Bitcoins. Chances of losing first match were 50 %. Now I again bet 1 Bitcoin and I win (Balance becomes 1000) . Now again I bet 1 Bitcoin , I win (balance becomes 1001) . Now I will withdraw all my balance .
So the above event is represented by LWW . Chances of happening of above event is 50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5%




Edit 2 : now I've understood it. Took some help from my friend and after reading your comments .
I was right that probability  that ending up with net profit of 1 Bitcoin (1001 balance) is about 75%.
But there are chances that I can lose up everything.
As someone pointed out here, it is due to binomial variance.