Topic: Is energy prices about to shoot up? (Read 1081 times)

It's actually your specific double standards.

There are two invasions and two wars going on. In one war you call the invaders terrorists but in the other war you call the defenders terrorists! The first war is the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the second war is the Zionist invasion of Palestine. You can't have it both ways.
If you think that Palestinian people who have had their country invaded by Zionists and are being slaughtered every day are terrorists for defending their homes then you are also calling Ukrainian people who are defending their home terrorists.

So yes, I will delete your posts wherever you refer to Ukrainians as terrorists.

Since Russia attacked Ukraine, some things have changed significantly in the EU, which means that many alternative sources of oil and gas supply have been found, primarily from the US and Africa (Algeria, Nigeria) and increased production from Norway. The latest data indicate that EU gas storage facilities are about 99% full, and temperatures are still around 20 degrees Celsius (daily), and long-term forecasts point to a relatively warm winter.

I'm not ready to say for sure, but Yemen has probably become a puppet in someone else's hands as well.

They do not pose an objective threat to the US Navy or other democratic western countries.

But they can provoke a powerful response to terrorist antics,

- Regarding "Iran's peacemaking ideas" - sounds just funny Financing, providing and inciting Hamas and other proxies to attack Israel and massacre Palestine - is it about stability and peace ? However, Iran should be given credit - when Iran realized that for this it can be very "fly", Iran beautifully "leaked" Hamas, PUBLICLY declaring them "reprimanded" for attacking Israel without consulting Iran. It was not us, it was Hamas, don't touch us ! There are even official statements by Iranian representatives, which is easily verified

I'm not ready to say for sure, but Yemen has probably become a puppet in someone else's hands as well. And it is being used as a provocateur that creates tension in this region, which is very important for the transportation of oil from the Middle East. They do not pose an objective threat to the US Navy or other democratic western countries. But they can provoke a powerful response to terrorist antics, which in the end, according to the scenario of some "scriptwriters" and will lead to a global conflict, which will lead to a temporary or even long-term blockage of the Red Sea and shipping channels.

Regarding other ideas:
- Putin went to the meeting to apologize for not fulfilling his obligations to reduce oil production (and you really don't know that Russia is systematically cheating its Opec+ partners as well ?), and to try to agree on using the banking system of some countries in the region to launder and transfer money to further finance terrorist wars.

- Regarding "Iran's peacemaking ideas" - sounds just funny Financing, providing and inciting Hamas and other proxies to attack Israel and massacre Palestine - is it about stability and peace ?

when Iran realized that for this it can be very "fly", Iran beautifully "leaked" Hamas, PUBLICLY declaring them "reprimanded" for attacking Israel without consulting Iran. It was not us, it was Hamas, don't touch us ! There are even official statements by Iranian representatives, which is easily verified

A little update:
Things may change very soon because of US regime's actions in Red Sea. If you've been following the news, the armed forces of Yemen have announced that they will not allow any shipments to go towards Israel and have already seized at least 2 ships and attacked a couple others that were headed to Eilat port.

However the US regime has been trying to say that Yemenis coast guard/navy is threatening international maritime security which is an obvious bullshit considering the heavy traffic of vessels that cross Yemenis waters without any problems whatsoever every second of every day:


Of course US regime is not giving up its threats on maritime traffic. They are not trying to transfer supplies to the terrorist organization under their support through third party ships which means their actions would force Yemeni forces to seize or attack those vessels now.
This could change the conflict and expand it.

I don't think so. The recent visits were energy related to force Arab dictators to comply with the supply reduction agreements since there has been rumors about how Saud and UAE have been secretly increasing production against the last publicly announced supply cut decision which IIRC was in May.
Russia only cares about two things. They prefer energy prices to remain up and also prefers the conflict in occupied Palestine to continue because it helps them advance in Ukraine. Already the ammonization supply to Ukraine has dropped drastically since NATO is sending those weapons to occupied lands to murder women and children!

Additionally my guess is that another reason for it was the red lines Iran clarified once again for these Arab dictators that they are not allowed to cross in the current conflict, in order to prevent the war from expanding throughout the region. That's what Iran cares about, stability of the entire West Asia without foreign intervention or presence.

You see what the Zionist regime desperately wants is to start something major somewhere else so that the media is distracted from their crimes against humanity. For example imagine if tomorrow you woke to the news about Aramco having been destroyed or USS Carney having been sunk and US military preparing a retaliation. In that case there wouldn't be any room left in the media to cover the genocide that the Zionist terrorists are committing in Palestine so they can increase their aggression and attacks as everyone is distracted by counting US casualties 2000km away.

Thus far the global energy routes are not impacted by this war, but if this spread to other areas, global energy crises might kick in.

Russian President's visit to the Middle East is of prime importance, as he discussed Oil production and other international matters with Saudi Crown Prince and UAE. Back home he met with the Iranian President. This indicate that Russia might become a mediator in this war between Israel and Hamas.

Muahahahaha I had a good laugh, Mr Troll! You should be the last one to whine about "selective moderation" or should I remind you how you cowardly deleted all my comments full of facts, valid sources and quotes from all threads started by you? I wasn't even breaking any rules, I was just asking inconvenient questions and exposing you as a complete lying bozo! pooya87 is in fact very lenient as he generously still allows you to post your bs comments here (although they mostly have nothing to do with the topic we're discussing here).

So yeah, indeed, it looks very cowardly and stupid  

The oil prices contains enough volatility and there's not so much revenue to be generated. Everyone is after the profits he or she stands to gain from the system, it doesn't matter if the country oil is not moving according to plans or stratified methods, rather it goes prior to our reasonings. You only spotted out your initiatives concerning the energy prices and as you well know, we all have our different opinions and bringing it up here is very welcoming, I know alot of people from the forum will benefits from your idea, I'm not excluded also because I've thoroughly gone through and I must say, it's worth it.

I’ll return to the issue of “selective moderation” again

I’ll return to the issue of “selective moderation” again

I agree with my answer to the topic participant’s question (see screenshot below), it goes somewhat beyond the ideal match with the author’s expectations. But the question itself from another student is far from the truth.

Request to the topic author:
- or not openly show your selectivity and duplicity in the “struggle to follow the rules”
- or then delete ALL posts that are off topic.
- or be honest, at least to yourself, and honestly write - “I don’t like your opinion, I don’t want to hear it, but I want to hear only those opinions that I like. That’s why I will delete your posts and those that I like, although not relevant to the topic, I will leave it to please my feelings"
- or also write honestly - I have no arguments, I’m afraid to answer you, I don’t have enough knowledge, so I will hide your posts, they are inconvenient and infuriating to me, because... I am helpless to answer them. Believe me, after you honestly voice the reasons, I will stop writing even a word in your topics Just don’t go back to the tales about “inexact matching of the topic,” okay? Looks very cowardly and stupid
 
Looks very cowardly and stupid

I assume that from January 2024 the dollar index will already start to fall. Oil prices are dictated by a cartel consisting of major player countries, which can calmly control the price by reducing or increasing production. And one should not be happy about a temporary decrease - ordinary people will always be the losers

That's absolute bollocks; there's pure manipulation of oil prices. There's a great demand for oil; if the supply is limited by this much, it'll send fuel prices to the moon once again. They're still high; imagine what will happen when the supply cut takes place. I believe that after the Ukraine-Russian war and the sanctions against Russia, we're doomed to a vicious circle of higher fuel and energy prices that will never recover ever again.

Only the US is profiting from this war, as it's currently our main supplier for oil and especially CNG.

Honestly , I really hope they won't because things in my country are already way to expensive for most of our citizens. Another rise in energy prices would simply bring people out in the streets but I'm sure that won't change anything because we will not be the only ones affected by this. On the other side , the war Ukraine - Russia already made Romanian prices to go up in all sectors so I really hope the conflict from Israel and Hamas would not have the same effect and I do hope a solution will be available for the world soon.

Oil is in decline I've been reading recently, OPEC is trying to suggest lower supply will be the case but market perceives lower prices are correct.  Since thats the bulk of energy it would usually indicate we dont see especially high prices this winter perhaps.  Also Dollar index is rising again today and has often risen over the whole range of time frames, it would seem high energy cost is not yet here or indicated.
  Generally I do think energy can rise alongside many commodities but not in a simple way.  Another big indicator is the growth of China which is not simply up yet either, its not negative despite some wars it could be worse and thats another big factor often spiking prices.

They are not trying to suggest it, they already decided in their last meeting to cut the supply by a large amount (2.2 million barrels per day) but the supply cut will start next year and they will continue supplying like before until then (that should be about a month or two).
If nothing changes, this cut would probably bring price up closer to $90 again, but I don't think it can do much more than that.

Considering some of the biggest exporters of oil is not Palestine or Israel, I am not entirely sure how Russia paying Hamas would end up making USA have expensive gas prices.

Oil is in decline I've been reading recently, OPEC is trying to suggest lower supply will be the case but market perceives lower prices are correct.

Considering some of the biggest exporters of oil is not Palestine or Israel, I am not entirely sure how Russia paying Hamas would end up making USA have expensive gas prices.

It's clear that the gas prices at USA is high for two main reasons, one is the fact that they are not getting it from Russia anymore, so they are forced to wherever they could, and two.. well inflation is real for every nation in the world not just USA, we all pay a lot more for everything, a simple bread is higher too, a bottle of water is higher too, prices of things do not stay the same after hyperinflation, and that's what happened when USA decided to print nearly 4 trillion dollars, and not like they are ruined neither, even after printing that much money USA is still richest nation in the world, so it wasn't really a big deal, sure prices of gas went up, but now everyone can afford that, or at least lets say most people.

I think USA should ignore what's going on there, they are doing fine on their own, let people do whatever to each other, USA can stay strong without Ukraine or Israel anyway, help or no help.

I partly agree. Sometimes it happens that third-party participants can receive unexpected benefits as a result of some kind of conflict. For example, like the United States - after Russia unleashed a terrorist war in Ukraine in 2014/2022, the US military-industrial complex received a lot of government orders to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons to fight Russian terrorists.
If we talk about the massacre that Hamas has tripled in Israel, the picture is somewhat different. One of the “directors” of this was Russia, which has already been proven, although not by direct participation, but by financing, consultations, and intelligence assistance. And the goal of this “project” was to destabilize the Middle East by disrupting oil supplies to the world market, hiding behind Hamas and other proxies. After all, there were expectations that neighbors would get involved in this massacre, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other countries that significantly influence the oil market.

Just because some others like Russia benefit from certain actions in another region (anywhere not just West Asia) that doesn't mean they always have a hand in it. For example in case of Palestine, the 75 years of nonstop genocide led to many conflicts between Palestinians and those who want to kill them all, that includes the current ongoing conflict.
Same with Yemen, 9 years of being bombed and having whatever they have destroyed which caused the biggest humanitarian crisis (even worse than Gaza) has led to the current conflict they have with United States.

you are right here, the "hand of the Kremlin" can be traced in igniting another Middle East fire, I agree. 

And I appreciate that.

I prefer to have the topic open and the discussion ongoing (hopefully about the topic) because the situation in Red Sea is changing and the tensions are still very high.
For example over the past 2 days we had another news regarding the USS Carney being attacked for the second time and 2 or 3 more Israeli vessels seized or attacked. Unfortunately the details are being censored by both sides for different reasons and they don't release much for me to post anything reliable about the situation and its possible effects.

For now it seems like US is desperately trying to avoid direct confrontation and instead start a proxy war. For example since US military could not do anything, instead the American organization called the UN World Food Program halted food aid to the war torn Yemen.
- On one hand this proxy war could be beneficial for US regime that wants to redirect its focus on continuation of genocide of Palestinians, fight a proxy war with Russia, counter expansion of China and of course the new war that is starting in South America.
- On the other hand if the regime succeeds in convincing its proxies to fight Yemen, it would be more devastating for energy prices and international trade. Because the proxies US regime is choosing is Saudi Arabia (oil rich) and Egypt (Suez Canal) and a couple of others in the region. These proxies are all illegitimate dictatorships that could fall if they cross certain red lines such as attacking Yemen since people of all these countries (despite the dictators) are standing with Palestine and those supporting Palestinians.

This is how complex the situation is right now and we still don't know which way the Red Sea region is going to go.

I try to follow your recommendations and have already improved, as I think, the quality of answers

PS At the same time, it would be expected to see comments and other participants who write ABSOLUTELY not on the topic of the topic, not on the topic even close to the topic, or it somehow looks biased .

You say that and yet you are still off-topic
That's because you are still reading the title (not the topic content) and responding to the title. This is not about energy prices, this topic is about the effects of the conflict in Red Sea on energy prices! Since the topic is already derailed I won't bother with deleting anymore...

BTW the big supply cut by OPEC is going to start in first quarter of next year which means it won't affect the price until then.

Yeah, says the person who is derailing all threads he participates in and posts his useless crap about "how bad Russia is doing" no matter what the subject is. You always refuse to acknowledge evidence. You never mention sources. A typical troll.

What difference does it make if all tariffs are going up? You will end up paying more. 30 or 40% more but you will pay more than last year.

At least I'm citing some articles, unlike you! When was last time you provided a source for your information? Mostly made-up "facts" with no sources and zero credibility.  

Well that's really cool. You're having good time, laughing while your compatriots are dying in Donbas? Great success! BTW, when are you planning to join them, huh?

Read your posts in other threads, about the unacceptable rise in gas prices and other nonsense, where you even cited some photos from the fence .
Let's start from the beginning. This topic, opened by respected pooya87, concerns the issue of hydrocarbons ... And then you suddenly "jump" from the topic, where as always you shit yourself, and instead of gas you cite information not about the EU, but about one country, where POSSIBLY, in the FUTURE year, will raise ... the cost of electricity

And you, in the above article, just read the headline, but did not read the article itself, as always
And the article says that if you don't like the tariffs of this provider... choose another one

That should have been the end of it, but I will add: you cited a great article about the EU, except that you forgot to mention that the article talks about, and clearly states that this was happening.... early 2023 Accidentally forgot to note ? It's now the end of 2023, and you can find charts of EU prices at the current time. I have cited from several times for a reason, where indeed from spring 2022 to the first half of 2023, prices were high, for reasons known to all, and then.... the graphs go down.

Bottom line: all your pathetic and primitive attempts to manipulate the data are easily verifiable, and cause nothing but laughter

That's not a good comparison for many reasons.
For starters those were old and weak SCUD missiles with short range that were modified to barely go far enough to reach the occupied lands but today were are talking about advanced long range ballistic and cruise missiles that are designed to hit targets with pinpoint accuracy with a 2000+ range. Some even reach hypersonic speed, something that is impossible to defend against.

More importantly Saddam didn't even want to hit Israel. In fact many of the Iraqi officials after Saddam's demise stated that Saddam had talked with Israel about this attack and planned it together!
Not to mention that these missiles didn't have a warhead to even cause any actual damage. In other words this was a big fakeout. In fact if you check out the reported casualties, the handful died of suffocation after they wore gas masks wrong out of panic!!! which had nothing to do with missiles Saddam launched most of which landed in the desert.

His plan wasn't to cause chaos, his plan was to change the Arab population opinion when US was attacking Iraq with the help of Arabs. He was trying to pretend that he is still the "leader of Arab world" and of course he wanted to pretend that he supports the Palestinian cause.

In Russian folklore, there's a saying - "who cares about what, but the louse about the bath" So you - everyone will freeze, there will be no help for Ukraine, blah blah blah Such squeals have been heard since 2022, when the "great and invincible army of russia", made a terrorist large-scale attack on Ukraine, hoping that no one will help it. Now the Kremlin Fuhrer is whining from his bunker - stop helping Ukraine ! 

But let's put aside the morbid complexes of pro-Russian agitators and get back to the topic

Let's start with general educational questions. The price of gas transportation is not a synonym for "gas price". It is a service provided by private companies to deliver gas. And in the EU it can't just be raised. That is why the author of the post did not provide links to real facts
Secondly, transportation of gas by private companies has no impact on financial and technical assistance to the country affected by Russian terrorism. For example Germany (they probably don't know yet that gas transportation will become more expensive  ) in the next year's budget will include additional (in relation to 2023) 4 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine. Unexpected, isn't it ?

In several countries that import energy from countries/regions directly affected by war, it is possible that energy prices will increase due to delays in shipping cargo from sea routes. This delay in energy delivery will probably create a domino effect which will increase prices for many products and transportation that use energy.
Maybe the short-term solution for countries affected by this will be to release their oil and gas reserves to reduce prices, but this is not a long-term solution. Moreover, if the war drags on, there will be high inflation which will put many countries' economies at risk.
So the best solution to all of this is just peace in the region, because nothing will be achieved from war, there will only be destruction and sadness everywhere.

.....

Yes, definitely so. Recently, several gas distribution companies in EU announced that gas distribution prices and/or gas prices are going up 30-35% starting from next year. Which means more pain for common EU folks. Which in turn means less support for Ukraine. Poland and Slovakia have already turned their backs on Ukraine. Governments are taking billions in loans to sponsor Ukraine war. They ran out of money and are now cowardly trying to push all expenses on their people. 

In Russian folklore, there's a saying - "who cares about what, but the louse about the bath" So you - everyone will freeze, there will be no help for Ukraine, blah blah blah Such squeals have been heard since 2022, when the "great and invincible army of russia", made a terrorist large-scale attack on Ukraine, hoping that no one will help it. Now the Kremlin Fuhrer is whining from his bunker - stop helping Ukraine ! 

Let's start with general educational questions. The price of gas transportation is not a synonym for "gas price". It is a service provided by private companies to deliver gas. And in the EU it can't just be raised. That is why the author of the post did not provide links to real facts

ERO plans to increase regulated prices for energy distribution by up to 70%.

Latvian natural gas distribution system operator Gaso has submitted to the Public Utilities Commission (SPRK) its new natural gas distribution service tariff plan, which provides for the increase of the variable and fixed part of tariffs starting with the 1st of January 2024, according to the entry in the Latvian Herald.

And about energy prices.  Very briefly - oil is not growing, and there are no objective reasons. Gas is stable and is at the level until 2022. Oil is also showing a good chart.

In the first half of 2023, average household electricity prices in the EU continued to show an increase compared with the same period in 2022, from €25.3 per 100 kWh to €28.9 per 100 kWh. Average gas prices also increased compared with the same period in 2022, from €8.6 per 100 kWh to €11.9 per 100 kWh in the first half of 2023. These prices are the highest recorded by Eurostat.

Data also show that household electricity prices increased in 22 EU countries in the first half of 2023 compared with the first half of 2022. In national currency, the largest increase (+953%) was reported in the Netherlands. This increase is related to several factors: tax relief measures from 2022 were not continued in 2023 and at the same time, energy taxes on electricity doubled for households. A price cap will be incorporated and this will lower the prices at all levels quite significantly in 2023. Large increases in national currency were also registered in Lithuania (+88%), Romania (+77%) and Latvia (+74%).

But let's put aside the morbid complexes of pro-Russian agitators and get back to the topic

Yes, definitely so. Recently, several gas distribution companies in EU announced that gas distribution prices and/or gas prices are going up 30-35% starting from next year. Which means more pain for common EU folks. Which in turn means less support for Ukraine. Poland and Slovakia have already turned their backs on Ukraine. Governments are taking billions in loans to sponsor Ukraine war. They ran out of money and are now cowardly trying to push all expenses on their people.  

Thanks for the additional info about the rest of the routes. I should add that a problem that is usually neglected about the added time is that it also adds to the costs. A shipment that takes 30 days costs a lot in terms of transport fees, the insurance, etc. Not to mention that some of these routes are risky specially in certain regions close to Africa with the maritime piracy and all that.

This is one of the reasons why sanctions on Russia has been mostly a joke and it hurt Europe more than it hurt Russia. They all had to go through third parties to keep their economic relations with Russia. For example if I'm not mistaken it was either Armenia or Georgia that set a record in vehicle imports from Europe right after EU sanctioned Russia! Obviously the European car manufacturers were desperately trying to hang on to the Russian market even at the cost of adding the overhead of these proxies.

It's the same with energy, a lot of it went through proxies like Turkey and things like gas turned into LNG which is more expensive than before. And of course as the article also pointed out the "big shuffle" took place too where the customers and sources of energy changed creating even more overhead.

The missile launch from Yemen is surprising but not the threat it could be if defenses were not already prepared for such a thing,

I can remember Saddam launching scud missiles at Israel many years ago in a desperate attempt to cause chaos.

The other thing to consider is the possibility of Yemenis attacks expanding to include more legitimate targets in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Both oil rich countries and both legitimate targets because their coalition with US has invaded Yemen and it would only be retaliation according to international laws. Also legitimate targets because they both are helping the terrorist organization commit genocide in Palestine (eg. UAE fighter jets are reported to be participating in bombing Gaza in the past days).
That can translate into much more than just oil price rising, there will be oil shortage.

There are also reports that the US is willing to launch an attack on Houthi military sites in and around Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, as well as its port operations room, unless the ship seized on Sunday, the Galaxy Leader, is released.

One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.

Russia's oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.

With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."

This is not about one warfare BUT all the wars around the globe including Russian Ukraine rivalry too.

I think this is correct analysis. One of the report that I read about Oil trade routes adds up more sense to the ongoing discussion. According to the previous report it takes about 5-6 days to provide the Oil to European region. However after the war broke out the same Timeline has shifted to 30 days long journey to send out oil.
The major change is, new port location and suppliers too. One of the biggest emerging port for European is now African crude oil supplier through Nigeria and Angola hubs.
So whatever @pooya87 explained in their map can be expanded to even larger areas now. If you checkout the map displayed below then the routes can be understood in great amount of detail and see how they are taking longer than usual.
Obviously the after effects would be increased demand while the supply runs at slow speeds. 5x slower!!
....

LONDON

Oil trade routes are now at least five times longer than they were prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, raising the prospect of increased emissions from longer shipping routes.

While Europe shifted away from Russian suppliers and toward those in West Africa, Latin America, and the US, Russia shifted 90% of its crude exports, which were originally destined for European markets, to those in India and China.

Before the war, the voyage of a Russian oil ship from the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk to European ports in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium took five to six days because Europe was Russia's main oil export destination.

However, after European sanctions on Russian crude supplies came into effect in December 2022, Russian oil exports to ports in northwest Europe ground to a halt.

"This means that Europe, which used to be supplied by Russia, needed to find oil elsewhere, and that elsewhere is pretty much a combination of West Africa, Latin America and the US. All of those (destinations) are much longer freight routes than from Russia's Baltic Sea to northwest Europe," Viktor Katona, the lead crude analyst of commodity data and analytics firm Kpler, told Anadolu.

"It was a five- or six-day journey, but today's average voyage from West Africa or Latin America to Europe is about 25 days, which is five times longer than it used to be."

Brazil's crude exports to Europe increased from 236,959 barrels per day in February 2022 to 325,116 barrels per day in March 2023, the highest among Latin American countries. According to Kpler data, Brazilian exports reached a record high of 491,000 barrels per day in February this year, more than doubling the volume in a year.

The average journey from Brazil to Europe takes between 20 and 30 days, depending on the destination in Europe, with Spain and Portugal being the nearest neighbors and Germany and the Netherlands being the farthest away.

Mexican exports to Europe remained relatively at the same levels after the war, while Guyana's exports to the continent reached 270,000 barrels a day from almost zero before the war.

Trinidad and Tobacco have seen a continuous crude flow to Europe in the last eight months.

The Netherlands holds one of the major oil centers in Rotterdam, while Italy, Portugal, Germany and France are the top destination countries for post-war Latin American crude volumes in Europe.

Nigeria and Angola emerge as largest West African crude suppliers to Europe

More crude supplies from West African countries are making the longer voyage of approximately 25 days to Europe, filling the void left by the absence of Russian crude.

"The US, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and all of West Africa are all trying to supply in areas where Russia was forced to vacate," said Jim Mitchell, an oil research manager of supply chain and commodities research at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

While Nigeria became the biggest supplier to Europe among West African countries, Angola increased crude exports the most. Angola's crude shipments to Europe showed a sustained rise since the beginning of the war, reaching over 300,000 barrels per day from an average of 33,000 barrels a day in February last year.

The Netherlands saw the biggest rise in crude flows from West African countries after the war.

Crude flows from the US to Europe increased significantly as the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom, Finland, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Spain, and Canada increased their crude imports from the US.

The UK's crude imports from the US rose from an average of 289,192 barrels a day in February 2022 to over 400,000 barrels in post-war months, while the Netherlands' imports reached over 510,000 barrels per day in March 2023, almost doubling compared to a year earlier.

The majority of US crude loads from US Gulf ports to Europe take an average of 20 days.

Greatest difference in travel time is from Russia to India

Russia's oil exports are taking longer journeys as India and China have emerged as the country's top export destinations.

Russian exports to these countries begin in the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, travel along the Baltic Sea, circumnavigate the Danish Islands, cross the British Straits, Gibraltar, Malta, Sicily, and the Suez Canal, and then continue through the Red Sea to India, which takes about 30-35 days, with the route to China taking 10 days longer.

However, Katona explained that not all crude grades take the slow 40–45-day delivery route because if ESPO blend crude shipments load from Russia's Far East, the journey to China takes only about five days due to its proximity to Chinese shores.

According to Kpler data, Russia's oil exports to India, including Ural, SBL, and ESPO, increased from zero in February 2022 to the highest level since the war in March 2023, at 1.99 million barrels per day.

"The amount of Russian crude going to India has been increasing for nine consecutive months. It is pretty much a bromance or love story between the two countries," Katona said.

Since the start of the war, Russia's crude exports to China have remained at an average of one million barrels per day, while Sri Lanka and Myanmar have emerged as significant export destinations for Russian crude, rising from marginal imports prior to the war.

Longer shipping routes are likely to raise emissions from shipping, an industry that accounts for 3% of global carbon emissions.

"The world trade has become significantly more polluting than it used to be before, that is an absolute fact. The biggest increase in terms of voyage times into Asia is Russia to India. So this is definitely increasing emissions from shipping compared to five days into Rotterdam. Likewise, US, West African and Latin American exports to Europe also mean more emissions," Katona said.

Shortest Russian supply route now Türkiye

Katona contended that Türkiye is the one country that is reducing overall shipping emissions for Russian crude and oil products, with a typical voyage from Russia’s only crude export terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast to Türkiye lasting three to four days.

"It is the shortest Russian supply route right now," he said, noting that Türkiye has been importing significant quantities of Russian crude and oil products.

Russia's oil exports to Türkiye stood at 94,335 barrels per day in February 2022 and reached their highest level in September 2022 at 392,908 barrels per day, although imports dropped to 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.

With Türkiye’s abundant refining capacity, which is very diesel-focused, the country has been importing Russian diesel for domestic consumption and exporting Turkish diesel to Europe, a move that Katona described as "technically legal and actually very smart."

Middle East still Asia's largest supplier

Middle East exports to Asia, according to Katona, may be the exception in terms of longer voyages, as producer countries appear to be focusing more on supplying Asia, the closest buyer of Middle East crude.

Despite the increase in Russian oil exports to China and India, Middle Eastern countries are still the biggest crude suppliers to the Asian region.

Saudi Arabia's crude exports to Asia stood at an average of 5.5 million barrels a day for the last 18 months, while the UAE's exports remain close to 3 million barrels a day, data shows.

By the way, are we going to freeze in Germany this winter?

What's interesting is that oil price has not shown any significant reaction to the events of past couple of days.
Possibly because the routes have not yet been threatened by the presence of terrorists and their supporters. But we still need to wait and see what the next move is, this is only speculation for now.

Let me know what you predict.

So the best solution to all of this is just peace in the region, because nothing will be achieved from war, there will only be destruction and sadness everywhere.

I wonder why the ICC is silent? The world is waiting for the arrest warrant for the international war criminal Netanyahu (crimes confirmed by the UN)... 

Of course the Israeli terrorists have to call their civilian victims terrorists. ISIS use to call the civilians they killed terrorists too.

But in the real world according to the international law, people of the invaded country can use force to repel the invaders. Exactly like what people of Ukraine are doing these days. Ukrainian people are using force against the invading Russians, just like Palestinians are using force against the invading Zionists.
That is unless you are calling Ukrainian people terrorists too?!

No no - I'm not surprised by your statements! I would be surprised if you said otherwise

The bottom line is that the UAE did not take the side of Hamas and its puppet masters, and will not play to reduce oil production.

It is now profitable for the UAE to sell expensive oil for a completely stable and liquid dollar, but not for rupees, yuan, or, worse, rubles.

Qatar has signed an almost 30-year contract for gas supplies to the EU. Qatar also chose normal, stable buyers,