Topic: Energy Crisis 2.0 in the New World Order era (Read 2608 times)

What's the latest news in the Russian economy? They were mainly paying for their war against Ukraine from their sales from Crude Oil and Gas exports. But there are people in X say that their economy is currently in its limits and that it could crash "anytime". Is there any truth to that, or is that mere FUD?

Plus long range missiles are being fired inside Russia? I believe that they shouldn't push Putin to HIS limits, or the Nuclear Threat might stop being a threat and actually happen.

Didn’t you know that Russia almost every day attacks the territory of Ukraine with dozens of drones, directing them, in particular, to energy and other critical infrastructure facilities? And the 853rd day of the Russian war against Ukraine is already underway.

But the Ukrainian Armed Forces are being destroyed by Russian and Iranian drones not only in Ukraine.
Thus, on June 21, the military training ground of the 726th Air Defense Training Center (military unit 33859, Yeisk) in the Krasnodar Territory was hit by forces and means of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in cooperation with the Security Service of Ukraine. This institution is engaged in training and preparing military personnel to use various types of UAVs.
As a result of the strike, the following were destroyed:
Shahed-136/"Geranium-2" - 20 units;
attack UAV "Lancet" - 50 units;
reconnaissance UAVs ZALA - 40 units;
SuperCam reconnaissance UAVs - 10 units.
There are also deaths among the instructors and technical personnel.
https://zn.ua/war/udar-po-baze-podhotovki-pilotov-shakhedov-v-vms-soobshchili-skolko-bylo-unichtozheno-bespilotnikov.html

Yeah, in each encounter they have been masterfully shooting down 50 drones out of the incoming 7 so I'm not surprised the number they're reporting is already above 11k

Putin’s Russia first tried to hide the fact that Iranian Shahed-class drones were being used to attack Ukraine by simply repainting them and giving them a new name, “Geranium-2.” Then Russia admitted that they had purchased some Iranian drones, but even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. When the number of Iranian drones used in Ukraine reached enormous proportions, since they were launched across Ukraine almost in flocks every day, they no longer make excuses there for a long time, since any lie becomes obvious over time. To date, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have shot down 11,355 drones in the skies of Ukraine, and most of them are Iranian suicide bombers.

However, on June 20, a kamikaze drone, which the Russian Federation had not previously used in the war, was intercepted in the Ochakov area over Ukraine. At first there was an opinion
that some new rocket had arrived. But after an intermediate examination, based on the fragments that were found and other data, Ukraine came to the conclusion that it was not a missile, but most likely an Iranian Arash-1 or Arash-2 drone. Preliminarily, we are talking about the Iranian Arash heavy-class UAV. This UAV, according to open data, has a flight range of 1.6-2 thousand km and can fly at a speed of 300-500 km/h. with a warhead mass of 260 kg. This drone is much more dangerous than the familiar Shahed.
Source:
https://www.dialog.ua/war/297144_1719039175/amp

If these drones were of poor quality they would have never bothered making so much propaganda about them and complain about their devastation every day for the past 2 years

Or as they say necessity is the mother of invention. So when other countries were busy buying super expensive weapons from a handful of arms dealers that are already obsolete (eg. like $10 million Abrams tanks that is destroyed with a Shahed107 worth barely a grand, or a $6 million Merkava 6 easily destroyed with a $100 Yasin105) Iran has been ushering in a new age of Modern Warfare with advanced weaponry and an army of robots in the sky, in the sea, under the sea and on the ground, all at super cheap prices.
And "Unmanned Vehicles" and loitering munitions are just one of many advanced weaponries Iran manufactures. Eg. the only air-defense capable of detecting most stealth aircrafts US military has and has taken some of them down successfully as well...

Those drones are not very effective and are of poor quality, aren't they?

Well I guess that can happen to any country under decades of sanctions when they try to make any weapon - I heard North Korea's artillery shells are similarly worse than comparable shells as well.

I guess Russia is buying any weapons it can to try to conquer Ukraine, but it's not getting them anywhere.

After the collapse of the USSR and Ukraine gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine first declared itself non-aligned and, under pressure from world states, even got rid of the world's third largest nuclear weapons potential, which was left to it as an inheritance from the USSR. What did this lead to? One of the guarantors of its security, which signed the Budapest Memorandum, namely Russia, itself attacked Ukraine back in 2014 and is still trying to seize its territory by military means.

What should Ukraine do in this case? Seek protection in military blocs in which Russia would not be in order to protect one’s independence and territorial integrity from it. And the strongest and most effective military alliance is NATO. Therefore, Russia itself pushed Ukraine towards NATO membership.

Only Iranian drones were sold to Russia and that is from contracts dating to many years ago (before the invasion of Ukraine).

Thanks for posting this, specially this part.

NATO is supplying weapons to a terrorist organization known as Israel that is found guilty of apartheid and genocide (ethnic cleansing of Semites including Palestinians) by United Nations, ICJ and ICC (issuing arrest warrants for the heads of this terrorist organization).
NATO (and specifically United States) still openly continues supplying these terrorists with a wide range of arms to continue committing genocide in Palestine! We are talking about between 100k to 200k casualties in about 7 months 70% of which are women and children.

NATO is Ukraine's ally and Ukraine wants to join NATO ...

I think UN organs have lessened the risk of chances of food and energy shortage this year. Both food and energy generation has increased at a higher rate than demand.
Last years European energy scarcity was scary but they struggled through the winter, this year they are better prepared. They might be paying more for the energy making de-industrializing them but it's the path take by themselves as choice. There are voices of change in Europe and with elections in many European nations, the new governments might work for a better future for Europe. There are also problems in some quickly increasing economy like India, whose 2/3rd energy comes from coal and struggles to generate much as rain makes the coal wet, these are seasonal problems and they are better prepared than last year. Renewables had been rising at unprecedented rate. Some forms not as dependable yet they largely reduces the use of fossil fuel for energy generation.

You reasonably noted that any supply or sale of weapons must comply with international legal standards, and therefore let’s see whether the sale of shells, missiles, drones and other weapons to Russia by Iran and North Korea complies. First, let's look at what applies to the supply of weapons.
According to Article 2 of the International Code of Conduct on Arms Transfers of 2000 (https://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/conventions/code_arms.shtml), arms transfers include “any transaction resulting in a change in legal title and/or control in relation to any weapons..., and to any physical movement of any weapons... from one territory to another Such supplies include supplies made in exchange for direct payment, credit, foreign assistance, subsidies. and goods obtained as a result of mutual settlements and barter agreements."
That is, regardless of whether weapons are purchased or supplied to another state as assistance, this is equally regarded as the supply of weapons from one country to another.

Now comes the interesting part: According to Title II, which governs the principles of arms transfers, “arms transfers may only be made if the proposed recipient State or the recipient party in the final destination country complies with all of the following principles, namely:

- if it can be reasonably demonstrated that the proposed supply will not be used by the recipient State or the recipient party in the country of final destination to promote serious violations of human rights, such as genocide and other crimes against humanity, such as “ethnic cleansing” (Article 3 ),

- if the proposed recipient State or recipient party in the country of final destination: does not commit serious violations of the laws and customs of war as set out in the 1949 Geneva Conventions... (Article 4),

- if the proposed recipient State or recipient party in the final destination country complies with international agreements relating to arms embargoes and other military sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council... (Article 6),

- if the proposed recipient State or the recipient party in the final destination country is not involved in any armed conflict in the region, unless the United Nations recognizes that it is acting in self-defense in accordance with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations (Article 8 ).

All these principles are violated by the Russian Federation as a recipient state of weapons, as well as Iran and North Korea as those supplying them to the Russian Federation.

You are comparing apples and oranges.

Iran, China and Russia has had relations for a long time. There has been many military cooperation as well. For example in the past 20+ years Iran and Russia have been fighting the US-backed terrorists including ISIS in Syria and Iraq. There have been many military exercises as well with China and Russia like the joint drills in Indian ocean and elsewhere ensuring the security of global trade routes.

There is obviously weapons sales among these countries according to international laws as well. After all over 90 countries are customers of advanced Iranian drones among a lot of other things (in the past one of those 90 countries has been Ukraine by the way purchasing certain artillery shell calibers only Iran manufactures). Iran doesn't dictate how they should use what they purchase and is not responsible for how they use it either.

That is not the same with Ukraine. Any weapons sent to Ukraine is not a sale, it is a hand out with a condition attached on how they are allowed to use these weapons as NATO dictates them and Ukraine obeys.
For example the radars they attacked in Russian territories over the past weeks (that long range early warning thing) is attacked under a direct order from United States. Otherwise hitting that radar has absolutely no benefit for Ukraine. It only benefits United States to weaken Russian Nuclear Defense against NATO's nuclear threat.

Of course, it will be much better if the world order is established by several states or even blocs of states, rather than by one superstate. In this case, there will be less risk that the head of such a superstate may make the wrong decision, which could affect the fate of the world as a whole.

In Ukraine, Ukrainians generally defend their country using a certain part of Western weapons. But this does not mean at all that Russia is now at war with NATO. If we proceed from this position, then we can also say that Ukraine is at war with both Iran and North Korea, because Russia has been using the weapons of these countries on Ukrainian territory for a long time.

We need to move away from oil and gas as the main sources of energy, and at the maximum possible pace, while we can still control the climate on our planet. Nowadays you can periodically read or hear in the news about the invention of new methods for obtaining energy from alternative sources, including more and more economical solar panels, and it is these areas that need to be developed. They may well replace oil and gas and provide humanity with cheap and inexhaustible energy. Therefore, I do not expect any energy crisis in the future.

When interest rates are high and going higher, people tend to spend less and not take any more debt on. That means it will only deepen the recession not increase their debt.
As for what this is going to cause, I agree with what you said but only under normal circumstances. In other words the "cycles" you describe will at some point lead to economic collapse before things restart again.

I don't think it is possible to have a significant increase in production anymore. They've already done increasing it. Not to mention the more you extract fossil fuels the harder it's going to get to extract the rest as the pressure drops and the source empties so the production would naturally drop.

i got to repeat this as its worth repeating

inflation makes everything go up
we are not going to return to 1940-1970's prices where houses were $10k-$40k and oil was $20-$34 'norms' (average range)
we are not going to return to 1970-1990's prices where houses were $40k-$1m and oil was $21-$150'norms' (average range)


we are in the 2020's where prices of houses are $100k-$100m and oil is $21-$200+
we need to realise the natural average value of houses is not going to be <$40k
we need to realise the natural average value of oil is not going to be <$40

<$40k houses is the exceptional "dilapidated/needs total rebuild" of housing where its not 'turn key ready' average housing price expectations anymore

<$40 is the exceptional oil commodity market "crisis" of issues with commodity futures trading errors of over trading a commodity futures option but unable to hold/receive the underlying contracted oil at completion, thus causing mass resell to try to shift who gets left with commodity they cant hold

here in the UK in the 1990's when oil was <$40 car fuel was under £0.60 ($0.80/litre)
i am not under any delusions that oil should go back to <$40 as a "value/average" and i dont expect fuel costs to ever go back to $0.80/litre
the under $40 oil is an exception of a BAD market, not an expectation of good market function

..
in short
stop being shocked or horrified by oil prices being $90+.. instead expect it more often as its becoming the new norm to be above $90 more often.. its called inflation, remember we are not in the 1970's any more

That's probably a good time for the United States to increase their Crude Oil production further, no? Their domestic economy alone could buy more than 50% of that, with the rest of it going to other regions of the globe. The OPEC doesn't have the monopoly on the production of Crude Oil, therefore higher prices would also be advantageous for those countries like the United States, China, and Russia which do NOT belong to OPEC.

Yes, indeed, oil prices have risen to the $90 area and experts predict that if OPEC won't increase production, prices are going to exceed $100 in Q3/Q4 2024. Perhaps Ukrainian trolls can comment? 

That's inflationary, and that would definitely force the Federal Reserve to keep it "higher for longer", then start taking a more hawkish tone again. Plus as prices of services and commodities go up further, the people's savings will run out sooner or later, which would make them take on more debt that they can't pay.

Therefore if the people have no more to spend = Economic Collapse. Demand goes down, prices go down, the economy shrinks, and Crude Oil prices will go down despite having cut the supply.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The hardship, inflation that we are facing today is a result of the oil crisis. I feel we have put our hope in it so much for generating of money and as source of energy for innovation sndbi can see that this crisis is getting worse and it is causing more problems to the world in generations.  I feel if there are new innovations and will demand others source of energy like the hydro, it will help to reduce the crisis going on in the world because oil won't be much relevant because if we should look into effects of the oil crisis it is causing more harm to the humanity,  economy going down which is affecting everything, increasing the rate of poverty.  Some countries have channel all their attention to oil, they can't even think of other ways of developing new things.

Remember last year the false arguments some users were making about OPEC countries reducing production while price drops? That was false because their reduction was supposed to start this year not back then. They just made the decision then and made it public.

Surely enough as they started cutting supply with the start of 2024, the price started rising and in first quarter of this year we are back to $90 a barrel again. Of course there are other contributing factors as I've already covered them multiple times, but this chart clearly shows the effects of that supply cut: