Topic: Is Gold Leaving Bitcoin(The Digital Gold) Behind? (Read 453 times)
I'll start to worry about Bitcoin vs gold, but I won't really as gold does nothing for me, when the same number of people understand Bitcoin and it has the same number of avenues to buy. Until then comparing the two is overwhelmingly futile. BTC has embarked on a long journey from nothing and it's not very far into it still.
Gold is up 14% in 2020 where it has been a horrible year for other markets like oil and metal industry like copper and aluminum, stocks, etc. And about Bitcoin, it is 4.1% down this year.
Bitcoin is now up 30% this year. What about Gold? Oh gold is up 12% this year. This post did not age that well did it? And not even one month passed from it.
Gold did fall from its early eighties peak arguably for over 20 years, thats a long time to be 100% sure it will always do well. However I would never suggest someone place everything own into an asset in just one year, thats the main mistake and all prices can become inaccurate.
What ever you argue about the debt , the price of gold started rising at an incredible rate after the global recession in 2008 because investors lost trust in everything but the yellow metal for their investment, i will not invest everything in gold but if there is a global crisis the first preference is always gold for the investors and that is evident in the past and that is likely to happen again in the future. 
Not all of the national currencies are this way, its with regard to trade balance and ongoing debt which is a measure of future supply as all debt pays out in cash notes. Just two rough figures I remember reading, would have to be double checked but Norway has about a reserve spare per citizen of 70,000 in their national wealth fund. A couple countries have this but this is the most notable western country. USA I think is about the opposite with 70k debt per person liable and Japan is one of the most extreme with over 3 times the entire countries annual productive capacity in debt owed. At present the countries in debt are issuing new money to pay off the old debts but its a system subject to topple and unbalance.
Hence we have to consider change or potential difference from now to future figures and its not the gold which is going to change but the currency pricing gold, so dollars or whatever your own countries currency is. The notes themselves will be worth less every year hence the gold price is fairly assured in ascension as a superior standard of value.
Gold did fall from its early eighties peak arguably for over 20 years, thats a long time to be 100% sure it will always do well. However I would never suggest someone place everything into an asset in just one year, thats the main mistake and all prices can become inaccurate.
Hence we have to consider change or potential difference from now to future figures and its not the gold which is going to change but the currency pricing gold, so dollars or whatever your own countries currency is. The notes themselves will be worth less every year hence the gold price is fairly assured in ascension as a superior standard of value.
Gold did fall from its early eighties peak arguably for over 20 years, thats a long time to be 100% sure it will always do well. However I would never suggest someone place everything into an asset in just one year, thats the main mistake and all prices can become inaccurate.
I consider the case for gold and BTC separately, I'm not going to put them in competition as I think they both have their uses. For the common people BTC appears more easily handled to me, that wont be as true in countries with poor telecoms and infrastructure.
The case for gold is inverse to monetary policy which we've seen is reliant on diluting value. I dont see that will change, even without the virus it was not a prospect. Gold as a retail product for people is a minor, people will hold it to secure value but I would rate that not yet in effect especially. I cant think of one person I know who thinks to save any gold, jewelry I dont rate as significant and its always mixed and used lightly. In could be in future used in majority to store value, we are nowhere near to that end game possibility for gold.
India has always have poor currency standard so far as I know, so it is tradition to them. The quote above mentions it as part of wedding season but really the gold represents value passed, inheritance though it might be jewelry they do actually use the value I think. Its worth looking into anyway, a few countries in asia do employ gold as a tool to manage their finances.
I consider the case for gold and BTC separately, I'm not going to put them in competition as I think they both have their uses. For the common people BTC appears more easily handled to me, that wont be as true in countries with poor telecoms and infrastructure.
India has always have poor currency standard so far as I know, so it is tradition to them. The quote above mentions it as part of wedding season but really the gold represents value passed, inheritance though it might be jewelry they do actually use the value I think. Its worth looking into anyway, a few countries in asia do employ gold as a tool to manage their finances.
I consider the case for gold and BTC separately, I'm not going to put them in competition as I think they both have their uses. For the common people BTC appears more easily handled to me, that wont be as true in countries with poor telecoms and infrastructure.
OP, that is a good analysis but severely wrong in many aspects of the sense, when the dollar is not something obtainable easily because of the shutdown we are talking about governments usually making it easier to obtain instead of letting it be. Sure if the situation kept going like this and there is no way people earn dollars and the ones with dollars don't have places to spend it all keeping it, that would result with deflation and that would result with gold going down and bitcoin going down as well.
However, we are talking about people who do not have dollars, that doesn't really a sustainable situation and governments will either print money or give money to those people and they will spend it right away, which will create inflation, that is the reasoning behind inflation calls so much.
However, we are talking about people who do not have dollars, that doesn't really a sustainable situation and governments will either print money or give money to those people and they will spend it right away, which will create inflation, that is the reasoning behind inflation calls so much.
I read an interesting analysis today about the mid-term outlook for gold.
This could have implications for BTC prices as well, since BTC apparently correlates twice as strongly to gold than stocks. While many including gold bugs are expecting inflation to pump gold prices, this is an interesting contrarian viewpoint:
This could have implications for BTC prices as well, since BTC apparently correlates twice as strongly to gold than stocks. While many including gold bugs are expecting inflation to pump gold prices, this is an interesting contrarian viewpoint:
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Analyst Lim Say Boon took up the contrarian view of gold prices in a recent report. He does believe gold prices will rally a bit more from where they are, trading alongside the rally in global equities. However, he argues that another round of risk aversion could pressure the yellow metal and equities.
He explained that global shutdowns could hurt demand for gold if the coronavirus isn't contained soon. Even on-and-off shutdowns will likely damage both current and future demand as debt levels go higher. He expects deflation to result, which has historically been bad for gold.
He also said the shutdowns have severely disrupted dollar cash flows, which will result in more dollar funding stress, driving the U.S. Dollar Index higher. A stronger dollar also typically means weaker gold prices.
He said eventually, central banks will try to "inflate away the debts accumulated" by their governments, which will boost gold prices. However, in the near term, he expects deflation to weigh on gold prices.
He expects deflation to pressure gold prices in the next six months "as the market digests the damage to the global economy caused by Covid-19 shutdowns." He noted that wars destroy capital and productive capacity, and the end of war brings more demand than supply, resulting in inflation. However, he expects the COVID-19 crisis to be different because it destroys demand while leaving capital and productive capacity "intact and idle."
Lim added that the coronavirus is not only destroying current demand but also future demand by eating into savings and wealth. He expects COVID-19 to be deflationary not only this year but possibly next year as well.
He pointed out that gold and oil prices have diverged, with oil prices crashing into negative territory. However, they have historically moved together, which makes sense because they are both driven by inflation/deflation and the value of the U.S. dollar.
He noted that previous divergences between gold and oil prices have been resolved by declines in gold prices.
He explained that global shutdowns could hurt demand for gold if the coronavirus isn't contained soon. Even on-and-off shutdowns will likely damage both current and future demand as debt levels go higher. He expects deflation to result, which has historically been bad for gold.
He also said the shutdowns have severely disrupted dollar cash flows, which will result in more dollar funding stress, driving the U.S. Dollar Index higher. A stronger dollar also typically means weaker gold prices.
He said eventually, central banks will try to "inflate away the debts accumulated" by their governments, which will boost gold prices. However, in the near term, he expects deflation to weigh on gold prices.
He expects deflation to pressure gold prices in the next six months "as the market digests the damage to the global economy caused by Covid-19 shutdowns." He noted that wars destroy capital and productive capacity, and the end of war brings more demand than supply, resulting in inflation. However, he expects the COVID-19 crisis to be different because it destroys demand while leaving capital and productive capacity "intact and idle."
Lim added that the coronavirus is not only destroying current demand but also future demand by eating into savings and wealth. He expects COVID-19 to be deflationary not only this year but possibly next year as well.
He pointed out that gold and oil prices have diverged, with oil prices crashing into negative territory. However, they have historically moved together, which makes sense because they are both driven by inflation/deflation and the value of the U.S. dollar.
He noted that previous divergences between gold and oil prices have been resolved by declines in gold prices.
It's interesting that APMEX prices haven't adjusted to Friday's spot market dip though. When I posted that, the premium for a 1 oz coin was ~ 8%. That's the other thing too, smaller sizes = bigger premium. It's the way of the world.
I wonder if it works the other way around too, that it takes time to adjust in a sudden rise (in which case, one could possible take advantage as a buyer!) as it has been doing weirdly enough more recently.I actually over 15 years ago did get into gold... but if you know about e-gold, then you know I lost everything when the US swooped in and seized everything. It's the main reason I deliberately ignored bitcoin when I first heard about it in 2012/13 -- I didn't understand then bitcoin's decentralised nature. I still hurt a lot from what happened with e-gold... so I agree, if anyone gets into it, it had better be physical.
It's interesting that APMEX prices haven't adjusted to Friday's spot market dip though. When I posted that, the premium for a 1 oz coin was ~ 8%. That's the other thing too, smaller sizes = bigger premium. It's the way of the world.
I wonder if it works the other way around too, that it takes time to adjust in a sudden rise (in which case, one could possible take advantage as a buyer!) as it has been doing weirdly enough more recently.I actually over 15 years ago did get into gold... but if you know about e-gold, then you know I lost everything when the US swooped in and seized everything. It's the main reason I deliberately ignored bitcoin when I first heard about it in 2012/13 -- I didn't understand then bitcoin's decentralised nature. I still hurt a lot from what happened with e-gold... so I agree, if anyone gets into it, it had better be physical.
Might as well buy jewelary if you end up paying 50% over spot, I know one site which offers to buy it back and only sells bullion quality gold not mixed. Pure gold is soft metal so should be handled more carefully, as a ring I'd wonder how long it'd last well. Mene is the website I'm thinking of but might be a few, I know some people set smaller coins into rings or maybe necklace.
Gold may be uplifted far beyond bitcoin. Golds are widely known for its value as an asset. Bitcoin is still a young and growing market where assets have a chance to gain profits up to sky rocketing but less known by people around the globe. The value of gold may be into monetary amount by selling it in the market but the value of it still depends on the supply and demand of gold in the market.
It's plenty easy to buy physical gold too, which you can hold in your hands. Just order from APMEX or a similar retailer. You can even pay with BTC. https://www.apmex.com/
Point taken (though it's still not plenty easy if I need a credit card (and I would, if I bought from apmex, which I can't, since I don't). I could, without a bank account or card buy bitcoin. To buy that gold).
Cheapest gold I could find there was 1/10oz for $210 if I use wire or cheque. Meaning I've paid 20% more than standard gold price to get it in my hand. But that's ok.
There is always going to be a premium for physical vs. spot. There's no way you can get 1:1 at your local gold dealer right now. I've read people have been paying premiums upwards of 50% over spot, if you can believe it.
It's interesting that APMEX prices haven't adjusted to Friday's spot market dip though. When I posted that, the premium for a 1 oz coin was ~ 8%. That's the other thing too, smaller sizes = bigger premium. It's the way of the world.
Now if I somehow decide I'm rich enough to buy a 100g of gold, I might need to next ask you to help me find insurance, storage, security options. And maybe a home kit to test the purity of that gold.
The risk is quite low buying through a reputable broker, from a reputable mint. A home safe seems reasonable for a few ounces of gold. Or maybe just bury it.
The reason that bitcoin is not getting the uplift that gold is getting is because: bitcoin is not seen as a store of value.
There are many pundits who does not have any clue about economy still proclaims that bitcoin and the crypto market is a store of value, the market is seen as a speculative one and we are yet to see any definitive improvement in the technology that would see a value in the long term and unless there is an intrinsic valuation in bitcoin in terms of the way it is utilize it is hard to claim to be a store of value. 
Nobody else thinks they are totally different things? I mean I personally think that gold is valuable and worthy and I like it, definitely something I would love to own as much as I can 
lol. Yet at the same time bitcoin is like that as well, there is no either or situation going on, you can have both if you want and diversify your portfolio and have them.
However gold is right now the biggest commodity that everyone in the whole world knows, we shouldn't really be shocked if it is still considered the best investment anyone can make and people who do not need the feeling of going out to buy some gold, thinks they can trust their banks, the idea that digital gold exists is purely because people who do not want the gold itself but the profits a gold could make could bring.
lol. Yet at the same time bitcoin is like that as well, there is no either or situation going on, you can have both if you want and diversify your portfolio and have them.However gold is right now the biggest commodity that everyone in the whole world knows, we shouldn't really be shocked if it is still considered the best investment anyone can make and people who do not need the feeling of going out to buy some gold, thinks they can trust their banks, the idea that digital gold exists is purely because people who do not want the gold itself but the profits a gold could make could bring.
It's plenty easy to buy physical gold too, which you can hold in your hands. Just order from APMEX or a similar retailer. You can even pay with BTC. https://www.apmex.com/
Point taken (though it's still not plenty easy if I need a credit card (and I would, if I bought from apmex, which I can't, since I don't). I could, without a bank account or card buy bitcoin. To buy that gold).
Cheapest gold I could find there was 1/10oz for $210 if I use wire or cheque. Meaning I've paid 20% more than standard gold price to get it in my hand. But that's ok.
Now if I somehow decide I'm rich enough to buy a 100g of gold, I might need to next ask you to help me find insurance, storage, security options. And maybe a home kit to test the purity of that gold. And authenticity. But that would need me to trust all those additional 3rd party services right? Maybe if I get my entire family and relatives and their inlaws to put everything into gold, we might actually have about 10kg between the few thousand of us (half a mill worth of gold).
I'd start to worry about that gold by then =D
It's plenty easy to buy physical gold too, which you can hold in your hands. Just order from APMEX or a similar retailer. You can even pay with BTC.
For those in the US, buying gold in this way is not a problem - but Apmex Global ships internationally in 34 countries only, and everyone should be informed of any additional costs arising from taxes and delivery/shipping. For this reason, it is advisable to look for a cheaper option if we live outside the USA.
The pandemic has caused mining and production shutdowns, leading to increased gold prices. However as panic buying of physical gold fades, a new reality is setting in: consumer demand for gold is plummeting.
It's plenty easy to buy physical gold too, which you can hold in your hands. Just order from APMEX or a similar retailer. You can even pay with BTC. https://www.apmex.com/
Jeff Dorman, who the hell's he? Gold is so much easier to buy? Especially true for traditional investors, no, only true for traditional investors. But let's say Warren Buffet wants to buy gold. How does he do it? He calls up his broker, tells him he's got this much for this much, brokers says ok I'll call you back with a deal, then they get their lawyers and accountants to escrow the money and then ok, he gets certificates in his name.
Paper promises, he doesn't actually see the gold.
I want to buy bitcoin now, right now, in any country anywhere in the world, I just go online, find a trader who's online, accept his price, send him the money. If it's instant transfers like in most countries, he sees my payment, sends me my bitcoin. If it's escrow, fine, another step to withdraw to my own wallet (but worth the extra security). It's mine, all mine. Not a promise, not an account that tells me I have something, mine. In my wallet.
Paper promises, he doesn't actually see the gold.
I want to buy bitcoin now, right now, in any country anywhere in the world, I just go online, find a trader who's online, accept his price, send him the money. If it's instant transfers like in most countries, he sees my payment, sends me my bitcoin. If it's escrow, fine, another step to withdraw to my own wallet (but worth the extra security). It's mine, all mine. Not a promise, not an account that tells me I have something, mine. In my wallet.
It's plenty easy to buy physical gold too, which you can hold in your hands. Just order from APMEX or a similar retailer. You can even pay with BTC. https://www.apmex.com/
The time frame for gold rising is more like decades, if we could select decades for bar size on the chart. Of course nobody considers things in that way but I honestly think its so easy to get mixed up considering things short term as if it matters. The surprising thing about BTC would be that it does seem to be influenced by macro monetary policy when many thought it would disappear long ago as irrelevant and unrelated to any real currency flow.
Its more a case of gold vs everything and anything. Why the heck do you want to hold a piece of metal instead of something usable and instantly transactable. Its the two dynamics to the economy of transaction, commerce and savings and gold is mostly about saving value for later. BTC is more involved in actually enabling commerce that might not occur otherwise like across borders or locked down countries with capital controls and so on.
Pricedingold is a good website that measures the price of anything including crypto.
Are going to continue the good old "gold vs.bitcoin" discussion? 
Its more a case of gold vs everything and anything. Why the heck do you want to hold a piece of metal instead of something usable and instantly transactable. Its the two dynamics to the economy of transaction, commerce and savings and gold is mostly about saving value for later. BTC is more involved in actually enabling commerce that might not occur otherwise like across borders or locked down countries with capital controls and so on.
Pricedingold is a good website that measures the price of anything including crypto.
Gold is up 14% in 2020 where it has been a horrible year for other markets like oil and metal industry like copper and aluminum, stocks, etc. And about Bitcoin, it is 4.1% down this year.
everyone knows that the most profit is always coming from bitcoin but only to day traders and long term investors. those who look at short term charts can see losses at times.
so lets take a closer look at these two markets:
1) 2020 bitcoin's 86% rise versus gold's 4%.
after the coronavirus scare and the market manipulation that everything dropped bitcoin went back up 86% while gold only went up 4%
2) the actual 1 year (past 365 days) bitcoin went up 112% while gold went up only 31%
3) in the past 5 years (from Gold's lowest price in the past decade, note that gold price was higher than this, i intentionally used the lowest gold price possible to get the maximum gold price rise) meaning from 2015 bitcoin has gone up 13100% while gold has only gone up 48%.
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The gap between gold and bitcoin returns has frustrated traders
if anyone is frustrated with these returns and think for a second that gold is leaving bitcoin behind then they are doing it wrong!!! Jump to: