Journalism... never let facts get in the way of a good story.
+1
Topic: Is it actually over? Or are we going to see a gradual decline like last time (Read 2856 times)
April 11, 2013, 10:54:55 AM
+1
April 11, 2013, 10:53:25 AM
gradual 
Virtex hit a low in the 60ish !!!!
Wish I had few thousand to buy those
Virtex hit a low in the 60ish !!!!Wish I had few thousand to buy those
April 11, 2013, 01:48:36 AM
I think it'll eventually stabilize at some value between $100 and $150 and stay there for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if there was another bubble up to $250 or greater. I would be surprised if it went below $100.
+1
$150 sounds about right.
I'm expecting it to fall below $100 and test $50. Then a range of $50 to $150, consolidating around $100 before the next growth cycle.
Dream on!
April 11, 2013, 01:47:21 AM
If we actually saw the top yesterday (I think so but in this market nothing is certain) I figure we'll go much lower. Maybe even $20.
I think we did see the top yesterday. Even if the price went higher once more, that would only be a heavy bull trap.
And I think you are perfectly on the spot with the $20 prediction. We will have to wait half a year or more for that though.
April 11, 2013, 01:44:17 AM
I think it'll eventually stabilize at some value between $100 and $150 and stay there for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if there was another bubble up to $250 or greater. I would be surprised if it went below $100.
I still do not see any basis for such high prices. My estimate is around $20 with single digits not entirely unthinkable.
Some people tend to believe that wealth preserving bitcoin owners will keep the price higher, but what would they do if they see that their wealth is not preserved? If they experience a long decline, I think a large fraction of them will sensibly sell, if only to buy back later for a lower price. They will effectively become speculators.
The base line for the bitcoin price is established by those bitcoin users who actually pay for goods and services, but that is mostly Silk Road, Satoshi Dice, and a few other businesses where bitcoin payments do not actually have much advantage.
My prediction is that we will have a decline that lasts 6 months, a year, or longer, with interspersed bull traps like the first one yesterday. My estimate for the low point is $20. $30, while conceivable, would actually surprise me a bit, $10 would not. Of course, unpredictable things may happen in the future that throw these estimates off, but then we would all see them and adjust accordingly.
April 11, 2013, 12:59:01 AM
Last time (june 2011) it was a decline with a hack.
It was triggered by the hack but it was a bubble. It might have gone a bit higher without the hack but it would still have popped.
A commom misconception shared by bitcoiners and the media. The hack (June 20th/2011) occurred after the peak (June 8th/2011). 12 days later. After the cat bounced.
Oh. I stand corrected. I was around by then but it appears the press coverage etc. has fuddled my memory. That graph shows a very neat bubble shape, by the way.
April 11, 2013, 12:20:12 AM
Journalism... never let facts get in the way of a good story.
April 11, 2013, 12:18:11 AM
Last time (june 2011) it was a decline with a hack.
It was triggered by the hack but it was a bubble. It might have gone a bit higher without the hack but it would still have popped.
A commom misconception shared by bitcoiners and the media. The hack (June 20th/2011) occurred after the peak (June 8th/2011). 12 days later. After the cat bounced.
April 11, 2013, 12:06:11 AM
Yawn
Who sold not me....I'm in for the long hall don't care if they go to zero...
I mean yeah sure call a top sell out make some money / more coins, but you will only do this 50% of the time, ie you sell out and it doesn't drop...
so why stress....long term trend, this is but a blip, 12 or 17 --> 2 dollars is much more significant, show the downs are not as bad as they were, more support, I mean it had support at over 100$ or almost that, and this was something we debated we would even reach, 100$ that is...!
Who sold not me....I'm in for the long hall don't care if they go to zero...
I mean yeah sure call a top sell out make some money / more coins, but you will only do this 50% of the time, ie you sell out and it doesn't drop...
so why stress....long term trend, this is but a blip, 12 or 17 --> 2 dollars is much more significant, show the downs are not as bad as they were, more support, I mean it had support at over 100$ or almost that, and this was something we debated we would even reach, 100$ that is...!
Yeah, I'd still buy the fuck out of it at $1000. The arguments for buying BTC today are not suddenly and magically go to become invalid just because a nice round number is achieved (1000). This "crash" has been a rather big success for bitcoin IMO. As the market cap grows these scares will eventually fade into the noise floor.
April 11, 2013, 12:02:02 AM
Yawn
Who sold not me....I'm in for the long hall don't care if they go to zero...
I mean yeah sure call a top sell out make some money / more coins, but you will only do this 50% of the time, ie you sell out and it doesn't drop...
so why stress....long term trend, this is but a blip, 12 or 17 --> 2 dollars is much more significant, show the downs are not as bad as they were, more support, I mean it had support at over 100$ or almost that, and this was something we debated we would even reach, 100$ that is...!
Who sold not me....I'm in for the long hall don't care if they go to zero...
I mean yeah sure call a top sell out make some money / more coins, but you will only do this 50% of the time, ie you sell out and it doesn't drop...
so why stress....long term trend, this is but a blip, 12 or 17 --> 2 dollars is much more significant, show the downs are not as bad as they were, more support, I mean it had support at over 100$ or almost that, and this was something we debated we would even reach, 100$ that is...!
April 10, 2013, 11:59:45 PM
You people are thinking amazingly short term.
April 10, 2013, 11:55:44 PM
Last time (june 2011) it was a decline with a hack.
It was triggered by the hack but it was a bubble. It might have gone a bit higher without the hack but it would still have popped.
April 10, 2013, 11:55:09 PM
There are still 20 000 accounts in the MT Gox queue. And a good deal are just itching to put money in. I have $50k+ just sitting in limbo with mt gox due to AML. So frustrating....
This crash is but a mere speck on the monstrosity of a rally that is coming in the long run...
This crash is but a mere speck on the monstrosity of a rally that is coming in the long run...
April 10, 2013, 11:46:04 PM
Last time (june 2011) it was a decline with a hack.
Nov/Dez 2010 - From 0.50 to 0.20 - Gradual Decline
Mar/Apr 2011 - From 1.00 to 0.75 - Gradual Decline
Jul/Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov 2011 - From 30.7 to 2.30 - Gradual Decline with a hack
Jan/Fev/Mar 2012 - From 7.2 to 4.3 - Gradual Decline
Bitcoin is a disruptive technology. Each day it stays alive, it worth more. What we see is a growing market with some pauses for consolidation / little decline.
As a reminder the natural decline after the rally from 1.00 to 30.00 was interrupted / severed by a hack that "sent the value from 17 dollars to 1 cent", as portrayed by the media. Boom! 5 months of severe decline, like never before.
After this huge rally, maybe a little longer correction is due now, like the normal previous ones.
Nov/Dez 2010 - From 0.50 to 0.20 - Gradual Decline
Mar/Apr 2011 - From 1.00 to 0.75 - Gradual Decline
Jul/Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov 2011 - From 30.7 to 2.30 - Gradual Decline with a hack
Jan/Fev/Mar 2012 - From 7.2 to 4.3 - Gradual Decline
Bitcoin is a disruptive technology. Each day it stays alive, it worth more. What we see is a growing market with some pauses for consolidation / little decline.
As a reminder the natural decline after the rally from 1.00 to 30.00 was interrupted / severed by a hack that "sent the value from 17 dollars to 1 cent", as portrayed by the media. Boom! 5 months of severe decline, like never before.
After this huge rally, maybe a little longer correction is due now, like the normal previous ones.
April 10, 2013, 11:02:53 PM
I'm expecting it to fall below $100 and test $50. Then a range of $50 to $150, consolidating around $100 before the next growth cycle.
Indeed a reasonable expectation. I think new money has been sufficiently scared enough to not re-inflate to such stupid valuations. Then I believe inflationary pressures coupled with a waning "interest" in attempting to game a ponzi scheme will bring it the price to the range you suggest.If we actually saw the top yesterday (I think so but in this market nothing is certain) I figure we'll go much lower. Maybe even $20.
April 10, 2013, 10:58:03 PM
I'm expecting it to fall below $100 and test $50. Then a range of $50 to $150, consolidating around $100 before the next growth cycle.
Indeed a reasonable expectation. I think new money has been sufficiently scared enough to not re-inflate to such stupid valuations. Then I believe inflationary pressures coupled with a waning "interest" in attempting to game a ponzi scheme will bring it the price to the range you suggest. 
April 10, 2013, 10:53:57 PM
I think it'll eventually stabilize at some value between $100 and $150 and stay there for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if there was another bubble up to $250 or greater. I would be surprised if it went below $100.
+1
$150 sounds about right.
I'm expecting it to fall below $100 and test $50. Then a range of $50 to $150, consolidating around $100 before the next growth cycle.
April 10, 2013, 10:49:49 PM
Is it actually over? Or are we going to see a gradual decline like last time
I believe the market will not be doing a long slide down like last time...
2011 was a different age. back then buying bitcoin was true speculation ( there was very little you could actually do with a bitcoin, and there was very few drugs on SR... )
this time around the market is less about speculative investment and more about giving bitcoin a fair valuation given all these cool start-ups now making money with the bitcoin.
the reason for the crash is the same, early adopter taking profit and hoping to cause panic to buy back lower.
i do not believe there is any reason to panic.
i do not believe the seller will have the opportunity to buy back lower.
April 10, 2013, 10:49:03 PM
I think it'll eventually stabilize at some value between $100 and $150 and stay there for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if there was another bubble up to $250 or greater. I would be surprised if it went below $100.
+1
$150 sounds about right.
April 10, 2013, 10:46:19 PM
I think it'll eventually stabilize at some value between $100 and $150 and stay there for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if there was another bubble up to $250 or greater. I would be surprised if it went below $100.
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