Topic: Is it even worth it to buy/order an ASIC single now? - page 2. (Read 13879 times)

This.

...people with very little money, people that don't know bettah, people that are just getting their nose wet with mining, people that don't pay for electricity, people that live in cold climates...

Sure, but there was no technological jump ahead as with the ASIC. Back then difficulty actually dropped for a while.

This next transition will be a totally different ball game and is reminiscent of the CPU to GPU switch. Who mines with CPU these days?

I made 2-3x the money by not doing that when the GH/s fell like crazy, I was still at it "mining at a loss" as they said but then I held the BTC from $3.50-ish to $5.22 and sold em should have held em until $12 but after the majority of a year at about $4, I figured $5.22 was the best I could hope for.  That did prove to be true for a couple months at least

You could have made the same and probably higher profit without mining and simply by purchasing some bitcoin and selling them at a later point.

Even if the price of bitcoin increases (as it should overall over the next years), GPU mining will still be less profitable (if at all, and I doubt this very much) than ASIC. The main question is how long would you mine at a loss.

Personally, as soon as GPU mining is non-profitable I would immediately switch off my equipment.

I was mining when the price was $2.50, cuz by the time I spent them, they were up to $6. And then I kept mining when the price was $6, cuz by the time I spent them again, the price was $11. I shoulda bought when the price was $2.50, but I was too poor.

well..people were mining when btc against $ was $6,- if blockreward halves @ $12+ not much have changed isn,t it..asic will arrive but not as soon as marketing tells us ...i guess gpu isn, t dead for at least 6month or so...

More than likely, they had no idea what I was talking about, thought it sounded like a risky investment I was making, and didn't think I could pay it back if the investment didn't pan out.

I should have just told them I wanted to buy a car. 

Banks do not need to mine bitcoin, if they need some they will simply buy them, like probably most people if bitcoin becomes more wide spread. In the end, mining is only an infinitesimal side of the bitcoin economy, as it should.

The next 6 months are going to be interesting with the tsunami of ASIC rigs that will go online. In effect GPU mining is on death row. The switch from 50 to 25 BTC reward was already bad enough but ASIC is the last nail in the GPU coffin. With at least a first wave of ~100 to 150TH/s of total network hashing rate (up from ~20TH/s today) from early ASIC adopters, this will have some significant consequences on bitcoin difficulty.

Anyway, we will see how this will shape up. However, second wave adopters will still be able to get reasonnable returns I would think.

Banks could make plenty from Bitcoin, but they must hate that they'll have to follow the same rules as the rest of us!

HAHAHA that took balls man, good show. Would YOU finance the very thing that could destroy you?
But really I'm sure bitcoin and banks can co-exist fruitfully. But banks must hate it at this point.

What university do you mine at, and who approved the use of university computing hardware for mining?

Before you go and label me as one of "those" people. I actually started mining about 2 months ago. started with a small gpu rig about 700 Mhash/s (friend's PC). Now im roughly pumping 2 ghash/s and adding each day. I so far spent absolutely NO money on mining.. I mine with my university's electricity and friend's hardware. I'm sorry you cant be in my position, nor do I care about your current situation. My question was generally out of concern.. Didn't need a smart ass pointing out my sig and depict me as an outsider.

As for my investments on 2 BFL Single SC, a jalapeno, and perhaps another ASIC units. I'm generally on the same page and want clarity like everyone else.

I hope to be on the same page. I might be still new to BTC but this is not rocket science.

I want to believe that if you cant afford it, then don't bother doing it. I guess it is just the risk. Ultimately, more power to those people who are willing to take risk and can afford it. F*** what others think.. haters gon hate.  

Option 4a: Continue mining with no F***s given. Order ASIC (a few quantity per month. perhaps from other companies besides BFL). Sit back, relax, and puff puff pass.

Well.. i adjust as i do now..and i do have some bucks left to keep beeing a medium miner also if everything U say will come true...

and i am in it for the long run..and If asic will be around by the 2nd q of 2013 no skyrocket has been taking my 10,5 gh down to $100,- as u predict for at least 3+ months... but any way we still can be friends you know.. i am just more sceptical then you are thats all...

OK So you've got 10.5GH/s. That is $1000+ USD a month, like you said. In 2 months, thats going to go down to about $100 USD a month. What are you going to do then? Mine on your GPUs, paying more in electric than what you're getting in BTC? Sell your GPUs, and wait 2 months for ASICs while the difficulty (and hopefully price) go up?

Which one will have more coins 4 months from now?
Option 1: Mine on GPUs for next 2 months -> Continue to mine on GPUs for 2 more months, in spite of skyrocketing difficulty -> In 4 months, still mining with 10.5GHs.
Option 1: Mine on GPUs for next 2 months -> sell GPUs when ASICs hit, order ASICs, and wait 2 more months of no mining -> After 4 months, just starting to mine with 200GH/s.
Option 2: Sell GPUs now, and not mine for 2 months -> Get ASIC preorders, and start mining at 200GH/s for 2 more months -> After 4 months, I've got 200GH/s, and enough from the initial profitability to order more ASICs with ease.

i sure know you do.... but u are wrong informed about me .. find me@ https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110752.20

Have you looked at his sig? He's one of "those" people. You know, the doubters? The ones who'll be making about 0.06BTC/day in about 2 months?

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look 5 posts up   I   I   I

could u please explain?

I think we need to break this down in 1 post.  Here's what makes it a good or bad idea:
1. will the devices actually ship from the vendor you're considering and in a reasonable timeframe - probably, except the ones that say Q1 or Q1 2013 which will be waaaaaaaaaay too late to make the most money

2. will the device operate for 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, years without breaking? - nobody knows.  They're 1st generation experimental devices backed by small companies without any warranties.

And here's the winner right here
3. Almost all devices, at current difficulty rates and BTC prices, will pay for themselves in like 14 days.  But that's the way idiots calculate it.  From that baseline, what will be the total increase factor in the total computational power of the system which will scale the difficulty accordingly? - Well, according to just the total number of pre-orders that are publicly known, if every device works instantly, ships out all at once, and fires up perfectly, we're looking at a bare minimum of a 20x increase, likely closer to 50x.  It's the high end rigs that are really driving it up but the 14k Jalapenos aren't helping either.  50x is a 700 day break even period.  The bitcoin block reward is about to drop to 25 instead of 50 so that puts it to 1400 days.  So, everyone who doesn't start mining with an ASIC before the first difficulty increase is screwed.  So for everyone who has a pre-order right now, I'd say on a scale from 1 to 10 on how screwed you are with 1 being money money money green dolla dolla bills y'all and 10 being royally fucked, I'd say 10 - royally fucked

So no, don't buy any ASICs and if you can get your pre-order refunded, do it, unless you're very confident your vendor and your pre-order will be filled before anyone else's.

I might make a separate thread about this for all the people here (everyone apparently) who can't do math.