There is no 'fully mine a block', each hash is random and each hash has a specific probability of finding a block.
It's purely random luck statistics for every single block mined.
Same as rolling a dice - how often you roll the dice determines how often you 'expect' to get a 6.
But anyone can roll a 6 on the first try (1 in 6 chance)
Just with bitcoin the numbers are ridiculously much larger.
Firstly, the dice has 2^256 sides (~10^77 or getting close to the number of atoms in the universe)
There's also a number of the sides that count as a block (currently a little more than 8^19 or 9.0x10^22)
So it boils down to probability, not 'yes or no'.
So e.g. a 90TH/s miner currently has an approximately 1 in 11625 chance of finding a block in a full day of mining.
So that leads to: 9TH/s is 1 in 116250 ... etc.
However, don't extrapolate these numbers into the future, coz the probability changes every 2016 blocks mined.
It's purely random luck statistics for every single block mined.
Same as rolling a dice - how often you roll the dice determines how often you 'expect' to get a 6.
But anyone can roll a 6 on the first try (1 in 6 chance)
Just with bitcoin the numbers are ridiculously much larger.
Firstly, the dice has 2^256 sides (~10^77 or getting close to the number of atoms in the universe)
There's also a number of the sides that count as a block (currently a little more than 8^19 or 9.0x10^22)
So it boils down to probability, not 'yes or no'.
So e.g. a 90TH/s miner currently has an approximately 1 in 11625 chance of finding a block in a full day of mining.
So that leads to: 9TH/s is 1 in 116250 ... etc.
However, don't extrapolate these numbers into the future, coz the probability changes every 2016 blocks mined.
Okay, thanks. This basically answers the confusion I initially had.
