Is it profitable to hedge/cashout bets before end of sport event? - page 2.

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Quote from: Boristhecat on July 23, 2022, 04:20:41 AM

I know that many bettors, if a sporting event develops in favor of their bet, make a counter bet - for example, they bet on odds of 1.3 and on the opposite event, the odds were 3.3. Then the odds changed 1.3 -> 1.1 and 3.3 -> 5.7. At this moment, they "fix" their winnings by betting on the opposite outcome with odds of 5.7. Or they use the option of selling their bet (cashout - some bookmakers have such an option), that is, they receive their winnings immediately, but less than if they wait until the end of the sporting event.
In my opinion, this is not a profitable strategy, since in this way you minimize your profit, but potentially maximize your losses - if a sporting event develops against your bet, then you lose it entirely without any compensation.

Generally it is probably a bad idea to cash out your bet, because you're going to face one of two scenarios: Either the bookmaker is willing to cash you out with what is now a losing bet at pennies on the dollar (you may as well not bother, see it through to the end and write off the loss instead of getting maybe 5% back) or the bookmaker is trying to get you to cash out of a winning bet, but still offering a much lower return than you might expect to make. It can really depend on the situation, some people might be comfortable taking a win if you are say.. a corner or a yellow card away from losing. Alternatively if you bet on goals to be below 3 and it's 2 minutes left to play with zero goals in the match - you'd be almost guaranteed to win that bet regardless, so cashing out is a bad idea. There are simply two many variables to give a definitive answer, just build up your own judgement through experience.

Boristhecat

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Quote from: johhnyUA on August 28, 2022, 08:43:27 AM

Quote from: Boristhecat on July 23, 2022, 04:20:41 AM

I know that many bettors, if a sporting event develops in favor of their bet, make a counter bet - for example, they bet on odds of 1.3 and on the opposite event, the odds were 3.3. Then the odds changed 1.3 -> 1.1 and 3.3 -> 5.7. At this moment, they "fix" their winnings by betting on the opposite outcome with odds of 5.7. Or they use the option of selling their bet (cashout - some bookmakers have such an option), that is, they receive their winnings immediately, but less than if they wait until the end of the sporting event.
In my opinion, this is not a profitable strategy, since in this way you minimize your profit, but potentially maximize your losses - if a sporting event develops against your bet, then you lose it entirely without any compensation.

Let's do it with math.

We have two opposite events, with 1.3 and 5.7 probabilities of success.

We will bet 100 dollars on each. What will we get?

If the frist one outcome with 1, the second one is 0. So we ll get 130 dollars but will lose 100 from second bet. - 70 dollars result

If we would bet 100 on 1.3 and 50 dollars on 5.7 this would end up in -20 if 1.3 is succesfull and +87 if the 5.7 would occur. This is not mathematical right behaviour. This will led you to loses only

If the second one is successfull, we will obtain 570 dollars and lost 100 dollars. But the problem that even with 5.7 coef is nearly impossible to happen!

Your math is wrong. You seem to be unfamiliar with betting because you don't understand how hedging works.
Let's look at the correct math: if we have two opposite events with odds of 1.3 and 5.7 then we can bet $100 on the first event and $25 bet on the second event. Thus, if event number one wins, then we will get 100 * 1.3 - 100 - 25 = 5 dollars of profit. If event number two wins, then we will get 25 * 5.7 - 25 - 100 = 17.5 dollars of profit. Whatever event happens, we are guaranteed to make a profit.
There are formulas that allow you to balance the gain of both events, but for this example they are not important.

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Quote from: Boristhecat on July 23, 2022, 04:20:41 AM

I know that many bettors, if a sporting event develops in favor of their bet, make a counter bet - for example, they bet on odds of 1.3 and on the opposite event, the odds were 3.3. Then the odds changed 1.3 -> 1.1 and 3.3 -> 5.7. At this moment, they "fix" their winnings by betting on the opposite outcome with odds of 5.7. Or they use the option of selling their bet (cashout - some bookmakers have such an option), that is, they receive their winnings immediately, but less than if they wait until the end of the sporting event.
In my opinion, this is not a profitable strategy, since in this way you minimize your profit, but potentially maximize your losses - if a sporting event develops against your bet, then you lose it entirely without any compensation.

Let's do it with math.

We have two opposite events, with 1.3 and 5.7 probabilities of success.

We will bet 100 dollars on each. What will we get?

If the frist one outcome with 1, the second one is 0. So we ll get 130 dollars but will lose 100 from second bet. - 70 dollars result

If we would bet 100 on 1.3 and 50 dollars on 5.7 this would end up in -20 if 1.3 is succesfull and +87 if the 5.7 would occur. This is not mathematical right behaviour. This will led you to loses only

If the second one is successfull, we will obtain 570 dollars and lost 100 dollars. But the problem that even with 5.7 coef is nearly impossible to happen!

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Just take into consideration the Asia Cup Cricket match between Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. The odds for Sri Lanka was @1.4 and for Afghanistan it was near to @3. Finally at the very beginning of the match itself things got worse with Sri Lanka team performance. The odds changed completely upside down. By the time it is the opportunity to lower the loss and cashout, because when the Afghanistan team started the innings the odds were @1.05 on Afghanistan. So, this depends upon the match and how we predict the outcome.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: edgycorner on August 12, 2022, 06:11:36 PM

It's situational. If you are a long time gambler, then you have to set aside emotions and think statistically. Else you will end up broke and probably lose your home :p On the other hand, if you are a one-time gambler, and in it for fun on weekend ball games then of course the answer is No. Enjoy the game and your fiverr on Mets.

Seasoned bettors should always hedge if it's turning a profit. I also recommend following other methods like Unit system(limiting your bets to 1 unit, usually 1 unit= 1% of the entire bankroll), spreadsheet to keep a record of your bets, look for arbitrage(follow oddsjam or look for it on your own).
Good luck!

What you say is very true, most of the time when we do or participate in a parlay, sometimes we get carried away by the statistics when we are not very sure and despite the fact that it is an intelligent decision, we also forget some details such as, what position will the players come out, if they will be the starter, or if in the worst case they will not be able to play a star because they have an accumulation of cards, and the main one because they get carried away by emotions, this is something that we must take into account and not to bet for the sake of betting, but to bet intelligently and that applies to games and sports betting.

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Being able to cash out bets or hedge during live events is one of the coolest things about sports betting online. Especially with basketball when it's frequent that teams go on big runs. You can even place bets to the point where you will win no matter what the outcome if you pick your times right. This is something I love to do when one team gets way ahead or something happens during the game that will heavily effect the outcome.

chaser15

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Quote from: iv4n on August 26, 2022, 11:18:19 AM

I agree with you, it's exactly as you explained. I also think that cashing out is a bad decision, especially if someone does it often, in the long run, that person will have big losses! Changing minds too much happens when people have doubts about their decisions, I like the term "flip-flopping", I think it explains this situation pretty nicely!

It's not that bettors have doubt about their decisions on why they will do cashouts.

Generally speaking, it's a choice that betting sites give if the results might not hit our expectations. It's a good feature actually. A big example is my experience in football betting. It's a big parlay bet in my luck, I've now hit the 3 bets successfully. The profit is now good but I didn't turn greedy and cashed it out instead. The decision is good because unfortunately, the last leg of the parlay lost and it result in my bet losing.

Depending on when we will do the cashout, we can turn the favor on our side.

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Quote from: TopT3ns on August 25, 2022, 01:16:26 AM

Quote from: gunhell16 on August 25, 2022, 12:34:55 AM

Perhaps also, the ones who do this often are the gamblers who often win gambling here in crypto gambling. Of course, if you know it's a win if it can be released immediately why would you wait for the game to end?

So far when gambling using cryptocurrency money and already getting a lot of profit or at least a return on investment then I will make a withdrawal to secure the capital used to gamble first then I do gambling with the winnings that I have previously got because if I don't make a withdrawal immediately then the account you use may become unlucky again.

Sometimes what I normally do, especially in non crypto gambling platforms, when I noticed that my prediction might not end well I will just cash out partially then leave the rest for the platform to decide and most times I do have lucky winnings because most times things does not always go the way I think it will go.
Sometimes to aim of gambling is to make profit so I will always prefer having a partial withdrawer than to lose the entire bet.

Marykeller

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The actual time I make use of the cash-out option is when I have seen almost 8 out of 10 games I have bet have entered. There was a time I cash-out my pay on the way and the whole game entered. It was big money though. People that noticed what I did talk badly of me. Blaming me for not being patient enough to request for cashing out before the game's end. Am not regretting it though because if I would wait till the game entered finished, I might have lost.

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Quote from: goldkingcoiner on August 25, 2022, 07:52:51 AM

I think that in some regards, gambling on sports events bears some similarities to day trading. Which is to say if you make a decision and back out early, then not only do you miss out on profit, (or in the case of gambling, winnings) but you miss out on your own funds because you make losses while "flip flopping" because of your own uncertainty.

It's a really bad decision, in the long term.

I agree with you, it's exactly as you explained. I also think that cashing out is a bad decision, especially if someone does it often, in the long run, that person will have big losses! Changing minds too much happens when people have doubts about their decisions, I like the term "flip-flopping", I think it explains this situation pretty nicely!

I never cash out earlier, if I am uncertain about some games I will just skip them, when I choose games and I make a bet that's it, it will be or not...

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Quote from: TopT3ns on August 25, 2022, 01:16:26 AM

Quote from: gunhell16 on August 25, 2022, 12:34:55 AM

Perhaps also, the ones who do this often are the gamblers who often win gambling here in crypto gambling. Of course, if you know it's a win if it can be released immediately why would you wait for the game to end?

So far when gambling using cryptocurrency money and already getting a lot of profit or at least a return on investment then I will make a withdrawal to secure the capital used to gamble first then I do gambling with the winnings that I have previously got because if I don't make a withdrawal immediately then the account you use may become unlucky again.

Or you can also use the vault feature of a gambling site than doing a mini withdraw because it can be time consuming and also can cost you some fees. You can also use small amount first when betting if you do not want to lose all your balance fast.

That way, there is no way for you to pull out your money in the middle of the game even if it's possible because it's only a small money anyway and there will be no hard feelings once you lost it but it is more rewarding once you completed the whole game and won because the winnings that you will be getting are also decent than compare to when you withdraw it in a much earlier time.

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Quote from: Cling18 on August 25, 2022, 01:27:09 PM

Quote from: ethereumhunter on August 25, 2022, 09:09:57 AM

Quote from: TopT3ns on August 25, 2022, 01:16:26 AM

Quote from: gunhell16 on August 25, 2022, 12:34:55 AM

Perhaps also, the ones who do this often are the gamblers who often win gambling here in crypto gambling. Of course, if you know it's a win if it can be released immediately why would you wait for the game to end?

So far when gambling using cryptocurrency money and already getting a lot of profit or at least a return on investment then I will make a withdrawal to secure the capital used to gamble first then I do gambling with the winnings that I have previously got because if I don't make a withdrawal immediately then the account you use may become unlucky again.

It is a common situation for many gamblers who can profit from gambling. They will try to withdraw that big winning money and get out of gambling. But some use the winning money to gamble again in the hope that they can win even more money. But whatever it is, if you have already made a profit and can withdraw the winning money, it might be better if you withdraw the money and place the money for other bets.

In case of winning a huge amount of profit, I would prefer to withdraw it right away and won't use it again to bet more because I already consider that as greediness. Profit is always a profit regardless of its value so I will be wise to secure my winnings to use it in another round of betting.

If we can win a big profit, it is luck and we must immediately withdraw it to avoid greed or desire for more wins that can arise afterward. We can use the profits we withdraw for other things and have the initial capital to play again. But we can't hope that we will get big profits again next time because it will depend on our luck. So immediately enjoy the benefits you get instead of using it to play gambling.

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Quote from: ethereumhunter on August 25, 2022, 09:09:57 AM

Quote from: TopT3ns on August 25, 2022, 01:16:26 AM

Quote from: gunhell16 on August 25, 2022, 12:34:55 AM

Perhaps also, the ones who do this often are the gamblers who often win gambling here in crypto gambling. Of course, if you know it's a win if it can be released immediately why would you wait for the game to end?

So far when gambling using cryptocurrency money and already getting a lot of profit or at least a return on investment then I will make a withdrawal to secure the capital used to gamble first then I do gambling with the winnings that I have previously got because if I don't make a withdrawal immediately then the account you use may become unlucky again.

It is a common situation for many gamblers who can profit from gambling. They will try to withdraw that big winning money and get out of gambling. But some use the winning money to gamble again in the hope that they can win even more money. But whatever it is, if you have already made a profit and can withdraw the winning money, it might be better if you withdraw the money and place the money for other bets.

In case of winning a huge amount of profit, I would prefer to withdraw it right away and won't use it again to bet more because I already consider that as greediness. Profit is always a profit regardless of its value so I will be wise to secure my winnings to use it in another round of betting.

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Quote from: TopT3ns on August 25, 2022, 01:16:26 AM

So far when gambling using cryptocurrency money and already getting a lot of profit or at least a return on investment then I will make a withdrawal to secure the capital used to gamble first then I do gambling with the winnings that I have previously got because if I don't make a withdrawal immediately then the account you use may become unlucky again.

Are you sure you understand what the question of this topic is? This is not about withdrawing the money that you won, but about early closing of the bet (during betting) in order to receive the winnings before the end of the event. This is not a question about the strategy of gambling and money management, but the question of the value of action in specific conditions.

Recently, I have been watching what kind of cashout bookmakers offer in disputable situations and in situations when everything has already been decided and in my opinion these are very bad offers - it is most profitable to wait until the end and get all the winnings (or put up with losing the bet).

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: TopT3ns on August 25, 2022, 01:16:26 AM

Quote from: gunhell16 on August 25, 2022, 12:34:55 AM

Perhaps also, the ones who do this often are the gamblers who often win gambling here in crypto gambling. Of course, if you know it's a win if it can be released immediately why would you wait for the game to end?

So far when gambling using cryptocurrency money and already getting a lot of profit or at least a return on investment then I will make a withdrawal to secure the capital used to gamble first then I do gambling with the winnings that I have previously got because if I don't make a withdrawal immediately then the account you use may become unlucky again.

It is a common situation for many gamblers who can profit from gambling. They will try to withdraw that big winning money and get out of gambling. But some use the winning money to gamble again in the hope that they can win even more money. But whatever it is, if you have already made a profit and can withdraw the winning money, it might be better if you withdraw the money and place the money for other bets.

goldkingcoiner

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I think that in some regards, gambling on sports events bears some similarities to day trading. Which is to say if you make a decision and back out early, then not only do you miss out on profit, (or in the case of gambling, winnings) but you miss out on your own funds because you make losses while "flip flopping" because of your own uncertainty.

It's a really bad decision, in the long term.

Pierre 2

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Quote from: Smartvirus on August 24, 2022, 06:25:37 PM

Well gambling is no do or die affair. Its certainly not where you hope to make that huge capital for an investment or pay up some debt although, some gamblers gets lucky. The main idea for me when it comes to cashing out on a bet is, should you feel you've profited and that is, "when Cash Out is higher than your stake" and you know you can't bare it should the bet be lost, best to cash out and be at peace with yourself.
That's highly profitable to me. There is nothing wrong or bad in it and should it turned out that, you cashed out too early, then what the hec! You profited on the stakes and that okays.

When we are discussing about gamblers one can be sure that there wouldn't be many gamblers saying "I cashed out early but its okay as I profited". I think that's the best attitude personally but its too hard to let yourself down on your potential. I personally feel bad when I sell a coin early even if its a profit. I think that's why people should not place big bets unless they feel calm and good about it.

Fredomago

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Quote from: Smartvirus on August 24, 2022, 06:25:37 PM

Well gambling is no do or die affair. Its certainly not where you hope to make that huge capital for an investment or pay up some debt although, some gamblers gets lucky. The main idea for me when it comes to cashing out on a bet is, should you feel you've profited and that is, "when Cash Out is higher than your stake" and you know you can't bare it should the bet be lost, best to cash out and be at peace with yourself.
That's highly profitable to me. There is nothing wrong or bad in it and should it turned out that, you cashed out too early, then what the hec! You profited on the stakes and that okays.

Seems to me that by doing it as long as you are contented with the profits then it's good to go, you should move forward and forget about looking back and regret in case if the bet wins, it will just give a negative effects and sometimes it will let you think of those "what if's " the good thing to do is to enjoy the profits or if in case you lose and you made a good call for cashing out better to rest for a while and recreate yourself if you do have strategy in your mind.

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Quote from: gunhell16 on August 25, 2022, 12:34:55 AM

Perhaps also, the ones who do this often are the gamblers who often win gambling here in crypto gambling. Of course, if you know it's a win if it can be released immediately why would you wait for the game to end?

So far when gambling using cryptocurrency money and already getting a lot of profit or at least a return on investment then I will make a withdrawal to secure the capital used to gamble first then I do gambling with the winnings that I have previously got because if I don't make a withdrawal immediately then the account you use may become unlucky again.

gunhell16

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Quote from: dwminer1 on July 29, 2022, 04:55:19 AM

Personally, I rarely use the cashout option, but still, this option is sometimes useful. Situations in some sports events can be very dynamic and it is good to be able to cashout when, for example, in the last match on the coupon your team is not doing well. Sometimes it benefits the player, sometimes the bookmaker.

It seems like it's difficult, your bet is currently placed, and then you suddenly cash out, I don't think I've tried it yet, but it seems to be useful from another angle as well. Maybe I've done this before, I'm just not sure when and what games I played at those times. And it seems that there is also nothing wrong with it, isn't right?

Perhaps also, the ones who do this often are the gamblers who often win gambling here in crypto gambling. Of course, if you know it's a win if it can be released immediately why would you wait for the game to end?

Topic: Is it profitable to hedge/cashout bets before end of sport event? - page 2. (Read 1491 times)