Yes, that's right. Luck is also part of it. As you already think, as a beginner you should only invest in older and reputable coins/tokens. Only when you have more experience in this area could you take the risk and invest in new projects. Unfortunately, it's true, most projects are scam. It is therefore important to have experience with it yourself and to be very, very thoroughly informed about new projects. As I have already written, research is very important and the ability to assess it correctly.
Apparently,new projects are once that comes with a lot of potential as, its at its root, yet to show any promises and as such, neglected for only the risk takers that have got the know how to pick amongst the multitude of them out there. Where the difficulty lies is in your ability to pick. You chose right and you might he up to something but, once you chose wrong, your bound for undesirable consequences.
One who is looking out for a place to invest without risk is one who isn't ready to make profit. For sure there are some investments that comes with certain level of securities but, that doesn't mean there isn't some factors of risks associated. Even bitcoin comes with some level of risks as well.
There is always a reward to risk ratio in every investment and being able to factor it out would aid you to make the right choice of investment.