Is it too late to try to buy in the butterfly labs btc miners?

akspecs

newbie

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Quote from: Puppet on February 24, 2013, 12:39:36 PM

I am saying your per GH revenue will most likely drop that much over the next months compared to now. Mining revenue per GH is directly and inversely proportional to difficulty which is proportional to the aggregate hashrate of the network. And the latter is about to explode when the various asics finally get to their customers over the next months.

Right, I understand this. I believe it. No problem. Let the 100 fold increase in difficulty come! Tongue

Puppet

legendary

Activity: 980

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Quote from: akspecs on February 24, 2013, 12:23:37 PM

Are you saying my revenue will be reduced to 10% (or 1%, yikes!) if I don't upgrade to the asics or are you assuming that from the moment one receives one it will take months to diminish any income?

I am saying your per GH revenue will most likely drop that much over the next months compared to now. Mining revenue per GH is directly and inversely proportional to difficulty which is proportional to the aggregate hashrate of the network. And the latter is about to explode when the various asics finally get to their customers over the next months.

akspecs

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: Puppet on February 24, 2013, 04:05:03 AM

That will take 4 years and wil cut your mining revenue at most by half.
Other asics coming online will take months and reduce your mining revenue to somewhere between 10% and 1% of what it is now.

Are you saying my revenue will be reduced to 10% (or 1%, yikes!) if I don't upgrade to the asics or are you assuming that from the moment one receives one it will take months to diminish any income?

Vitezky

newbie

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How useful is the Jalapeno going to be in a few months?Im sure you will get profit, but how much?

FarmerBlue

member

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Merit: 10

Quote from: akspecs on February 23, 2013, 09:55:49 PM

@FarmerBlue

just tested the site. I have a pretty secure system and no red flags.

I did a Microtrend house call scan and found a low level TROJGEN. It was a cache tmp file. It is cleared now, retesting purchase from butterfly labs and now it is clear with no security certificates issue.

Puppet

legendary

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Quote from: akspecs on February 24, 2013, 12:02:25 AM

Absolutely not. But I do want to be in the game now and reap the supposed benefits before the block reward is further reduced.

That will take 4 years and wil cut your mining revenue at most by half.
Other asics coming online will take months and reduce your mining revenue to somewhere between 10% and 1% of what it is now.

akspecs

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

On the one hand, what was interesting is that if you were planning on becoming a miner, you usually ended with a monster machine that had a lot of power computationally. Meaning if all else fails with mining you could have fun doing some high end encoding / gaming / etc...

I am on the verge of buying 4 of the bfl 30gh/s or 60gh/s devices but am afraid I really can't find any other use for them if things go sour.

CryptoJunky

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

As far as I understand it they don't have much application outside of mining Bitcoin. They're basically circuits designed solely for producing SHA-256 hashes, not universal computers. However, as with most things, I'm sure we'll find inventive other uses for these in the future.

akspecs

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

What else can these miner rigs be used for? brute force attacks?

Honest question. What are alternative uses for these miners?

hyphenx

newbie

Activity: 48

Merit: 0

Quote from: CryptoJunky on February 24, 2013, 12:14:57 AM

I'd wait 'til they ship and their product is proven to be within specifications for power consumption and hash rate.

Just my two bitcents.

That was my logic back in September/October. I agree its a difficult decision whether to buy in or not. At the end of the day if you're about supporting the system, you've got to start somewhere.

CryptoJunky

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

I'd wait 'til they ship and their product is proven to be within specifications for power consumption and hash rate.

Just my two bitcents.

ironcross360

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Troll of the Fourth Reich.

I heard we should wait till july when the demand lowers... And nomater what the difficulty is going to be high

akspecs

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

Quote from: hyphenx on February 23, 2013, 10:46:09 PM

BFL has 75k chips first batch. This equates to 500-800TH. By the time these ship, Avalon and ASICMiner would have brought the network to around 200TH. Making the network 1000TH by August.

That sounds like a reasonable estimate. That accounts for 40x difficulty increase?

Quote from: hyphenx on February 23, 2013, 10:46:09 PM

If you expect to make your money back in 9 days...

Absolutely not. But I do want to be in the game now and reap the supposed benefits before the block reward is further reduced.

hyphenx

newbie

Activity: 48

Merit: 0

say you order a bfl asic now, it will probably be around May or later before you get it. This is based on current orders expected for April.
Now consider the following:
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bitcoin-discussion/1096-asic-systems.html
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/1047-i-ordered-early-aug-~-4500-bfl-cs-says-will-likely-ship-may-june-true-4.html#post15285

TL;DR

BFL has 75k chips first batch. This equates to 500-800TH. By the time these ship, Avalon and ASICMiner would have brought the network to around 200TH. Making the network 1000TH by August.
If you expect to make your money back in 9 days, I'm sorry to tell you but by the time you get a device the money train would have left and we will be back to the same scenario of GPU mining... Massive mining setups.
So if you have the ability to buy lots of ASIC's miners, I would suggest putting in your order now, if not. Look into other ways of supporting the network.

akspecs

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

@FarmerBlue

just tested the site. I have a pretty secure system and no red flags.

FarmerBlue

member

Activity: 66

Merit: 10

I tried to buy/order a butterfly labs jalapeno today but they only take bitcoins (dont have enough), paypal, bank wire transfers, .....was hoping to borrow my uncles credit card and pay him cash. .....i did find it odd too that firefox yelled at me about unverified security certificate too, anyone else get that message?

akspecs

newbie

Activity: 42

Merit: 0

That is my deciding factor -> the would be difficulty. What makes you say it'll go up 40 fold?? Is that fair to say??

nobbynobbynoob

hero member

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Annuit cœptis humanae libertas

Quote from: hardcore-fs on February 23, 2013, 06:15:26 PM

The PPS systems are already paying significantly less even with less than 10 ASICS on the network.
Expect a delivery in July-August and pay-back on the kit within two years.

Probably considerably shorter ROI than that, unless the exchange rate collapses again, or hashrate escalates rapidly beyond a petahash. Both outcomes are possible of course.

Obviously, the cost of purchasing ASICs has to be weighed against that of buying BTC directly.

hardcore-fs

full member

Activity: 196

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The PPS systems are already paying significantly less even with less than 10 ASICS on the network.
Expect a delivery in July-August and pay-back on the kit within two years.

I think that once it settles down.... we will see way more DDOS attacks on the major pools in an attempt for other groups to make a higher return on their mining operations.

nobbynobbynoob

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Annuit cœptis humanae libertas

I preordered with bASIC and got a refund when that company folded. I'm not interested in any more of this preorder garbage: I will assess the situation if/when a genuine ASIC product is available for direct order and immediate to near-immediate shipping. Even if the difficulty is 75m+ by then, it may still be extremely profitable if you consider, broadly speaking:

Consider GPU mining last year - it was decently profitable at $10 per BTC with the reward at BTC50/block.
Now, difficulty might go up 30x before you get your ASIC, and the reward has halved to BTC25/block. This is a de-facto difficulty increase of 60x. But the new machines might hash 70x more efficiently (per $ spent)! So ASIC is still about as profitable as GPU was last year... with the exchange rate around $10 per BTC! Now imagine $30, $50, $80 or more per BTC...

Purely speculative of course, but I'm out until there's a tangible product available and I've reassessed everything. I already burned my fingers with the bASIC fiasco as it is.

Topic: Is it too late to try to buy in the butterfly labs btc miners? (Read 2938 times)