Is mass adoption or/and regulation more likely to reduce volatility? - page 3.

posi

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Quote from: Nwada001 on May 27, 2023, 02:52:31 AM

The answer is no, volatility is not controlled by the number of adoptions that reach Bitcoin, that is to say, the number of people who own Bitcoin is not responsible for controlling Bitcoin in any way. Talking about government regulation of Bitcoin, how can government regulate something they don't control? The regulation that the government wants is on exchanges, platforms, and people who are associating themselves with Bitcoin; regulating the currency itself is something they really can't control.

So the adoption of Bitcoin grows beyond this level, and the government succeeds in reaching out to the majority of the people by regulating a few crypto exchanges and passing bills that people (let's just assume they agree to) agree to. Those laws and regulations only bind the government and the individuals involved, not Bitcoin directly. Just as you have said, volatility is the nature of Bitcoin; it's part of what makes Bitcoin Bitcoin, so it can't change. We will always have a drastic change in price; that's one thing I know will never change with Bitcoin. No volatility means Bitcoin will be stable.

They cannot control the bitcoin network, but with regulations that will be imposed on centralized exchanges, and centralized exchanges are the places that hold the most bitcoins. Furthermore, all information about the market as well as the bitcoin price is displayed on centralized platforms, so I think they will still have some control over the volatility of bitcoin. Bitcoin is decentralized but used by everyone, and most of the participants in this market mainly depend on centralized platforms. The government doesn't control bitcoin, but they can control bitcoin users.

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Quote from: irhact on May 27, 2023, 08:08:09 AM

The government can't regulate Bitcoin, if they can regulate it they would had done it since but because they have tried but can't that is why they're now speaking negatively against Bitcoin to discourage people from investing in it. Bitcoin is a decentralized currency and when something is decentralized it can't be regulated. Bitcoin has no center body that can be regulated to stop the volatility of the price.
...

The government can regulate connections to bitcoin in real world: when the one changes it to fiat, buys or sells something with it, etc. It can try to impact on miners which are under its jurisdiction. So it is not so easy to say that gov doesn't have any control over bitcoin, it only hasn't direct impact.

Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

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would it reduce its volatility?

Look at the history of bitcoin: its volatility is already downing by time. The bigger its capitalization the lower will probably be its volatility if nothing bad will happen. It doesn't depend on a number of users directly, it depends more on a capitalization.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

As we know bitcoin is one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies and is considered the pioneer in the field. It has been in existence since 2009 when it was founded by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin. There have also been discussions about regulating Bitcoin from various sources worldwide. On the other hand, volatility is one of the most prominent features of Bitcoin.
If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

The government can't regulate Bitcoin, if they can regulate it they would had done it since but because they have tried but can't that is why they're now speaking negatively against Bitcoin to discourage people from investing in it. Bitcoin is a decentralized currency and when something is decentralized it can't be regulated. Bitcoin has no center body that can be regulated to stop the volatility of the price.

If the centralized wallets and exchange finally gets regulated, it still wouldn't stop Bitcoin volatility because those exchanges and wallets aren't the ones trading Bitcoin on their websites and apps, it's the individuals that are responsible for determining the price of Bitcoin.

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It seems that regulation does not reduce volatility because the government cannot control the price of Bitcoin. The government can only make regulations for people who use Bitcoin and exchanges so that the government can find out who is behind Bitcoin or who is using Bitcoin.

And if more people adopt Bitcoin, it will make Bitcoin even more popular and as Bitcoin gets more popular, the government will tighten the regulation more. But the volatility is not decreasing and it is possible that it will increase in volatility as more and more people are trading Bitcoins.

But as for the number of people who own Bitcoin, we will never know for sure. We only know how many wallets contain or do not contain Bitcoins. Owning Bitcoin is related to privacy, which the government doesn't like because they don't know how rich their citizens are.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

As we know bitcoin is one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is not just one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies, it's as a matter of fact the most trusted cryptocurrency and might hold that title forever.

Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

There have also been discussions about regulating Bitcoin from various sources worldwide. On the other hand, volatility is one of the most prominent features of Bitcoin.
If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

Regulation is not an issue the way people think of it, it will rather help in accountability as many might do anything with their coin outside the radar, and it could be for evil deeds. That said, regulation can only directly affect the inflow and outflow of Bitcoin, and for this, it doesn't have a direct link with trading, investment and liquidity. Still, some might not like the regulation and leave, but I can assure you that more would like the regulation and adopts it even more.

However, these statistics can't be predetermined, yet, one thing that is sure is that Bitcoin would always attract more liquidity as time goes on, and that is good for it's economy. And if liquidity is what you are mistaken for volatility, be sure that volatility is merely the magnitude of the market reaction, and adoption might not have a direct link here but how liquidity is being pumped and dumped.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

As we know bitcoin is one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies and is considered the pioneer in the field. It has been in existence since 2009 when it was founded by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin. There have also been discussions about regulating Bitcoin from various sources worldwide. On the other hand, volatility is one of the most prominent features of Bitcoin.
If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

None of those is powerful enough to control the volatility of the Bitcoin. The volatility of Bitcoin and crypto-market can't be controlled because Bitcoin isn't in the hands of the government and they can't increase or decrease it's volume. The volatility is the part of the crypto-market and controlling it isn't possible for anyone. The regulations and other restrictions pose by authorities on exchanges could be the cause of less adoption of the currency, but they won't be able to control the volatility with the restrictions.

Even if the currency is adopted by many users that won't reduce the volatility and in face that can contribute to the volatility of the Bitcoin. With more people there will be more buy/sell orders executed and that would cause an increase in the volatility. The only possible way to control the volatility is to limit the buy/sell orders, but even that is not possible. If the authorities pose restrictions on the exchanges to limit buy/sell order per day, still they won't be able to control the volatility so much. The Bitcoin isn't dependent on those exchanges and can be traded without those exchanges, and if regulation authorities pose some regulations on the exchanges that won't impact the volatility of the coin.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

Adoption is one of the factors that affect the price. With the large number of people adopting Bitcoin theoretically it could make its price increase.
You actually already understand that the government cannot regulate Bitcoin because Bitcoin can only be controlled by its users. The government can only make rules or regulations for people who use Bitcoin or Bitcoin users who live in a country such as setting taxes.

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The volatility is much connected to the demand to the supply model, not on the regulation and the adoption. The adoption and the regulation plays role creating increasing demand which will lower the volatility for some time period. Based on the model the market will never go stable, volatility is the attraction.

Just think of the market with less volatility or stable market movement, surely cryptocurrency could've never been this high in its growth. For this reason the users also doesn't prefer bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be stable in the market.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin. There have also been discussions about regulating Bitcoin from various sources worldwide. On the other hand, volatility is one of the most prominent features of Bitcoin.

I hope you will be accurate, it is difficult to determine the number of people who own Bitcoin, all you can get is accurate data for the number of people whose accounts have been verified in CEXs other than that, all we can know is the number of unique addresses which the article talked about and not the number of people.

Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

Which government do you mean, without a global regulation just as happened at the Climate Summit^[1] it is difficult to put in place a regulatory framework for Bitcoin.

[1] https://www.un.org/en/climatechange

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On a hypothetical level, it makes sense to me that with more adoption comes less volatility, because if more people are a part of the system, regional changes (like bans or friendly regulations in some countries) are likely to have a smaller effect, and minor panic selling is less likely to affect the whole as well. But it just doesn't seem to be the case over the last 5 years. Adoption is growing, but volatility is pretty much the way it used to be in 2018-2019, or at least I see no improvement. As for regulations, I don't think they have an impact on volatility at all, apart from temporary price changes when major regulations are rumoured to be coming. I believe it's more likely that we'll get used to the current level of volatility (which isn't that bad most of the time) than that we'll see Bitcoin as a way more stable currency in the future.

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Sometimes, volatility is caused by lack of regulation because lack of regulation leads to uncertainty. So yeah, it’d help a bit at least. But Bitcoin’s still getting scarcer and it’s still got a halving every 4 years, so quick, big price changes won’t really stop. Adoption will also help just because the more distributed the supply is among holders and the more holders we have, the harder to manipulate the market becomes!

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin.

I think that you missunderstoof that report. According to them, there are oiver 44 milliion of unique Bitcoin addresses in use and that is very different from "over 40 million hwo owns Bitcoin" because people can have more Bitcoin addresses in use, and many do have (myself included) so the real number of bitcoin owners is much smaller than that.

Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

It is safe to assume that will happen because more people get into bitcoin means higher price, which then in the end makes it harder for anyone to move bitcoin price in any direction.

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The thing is that Bitcoin can be subject to the wimp and camporee of regulators and government, bitcoin is more of a movement of its own ideology e must have to accept that fact and if all things being equal government may not be able to totally regulate bitcoin but there could align themselves to it.

On the issue of volatility in Bitcoin, I think it is more of Bitcoin nature and development to be volatile since Bitcoin also has a key feature which is an asset, so since bitcoin is a digital gold that it demands also equal value in $ price it then means that at any point bitcoin will not be stable no matter the level of its adoptions.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

As we know bitcoin is one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies and is considered the pioneer in the field. It has been in existence since 2009 when it was founded by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin. There have also been discussions about regulating Bitcoin from various sources worldwide. On the other hand, volatility is one of the most prominent features of Bitcoin.
If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

Satoshi Nakamoto's idea was to create a decentralized currency that cannot be controlled or regulated by any centralized entity. So to answer your question, Bitcoin cannot be regulated by any government or centralized authority. The government can only regulate centralized exchanges like Binance, Kucoin etc. that trade Bitcoin and other digital assets by setting up rules and regulations that guide and control the activities of these exchanges which may have little or no effect on the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin volatility is inherent in nature, it is what makes it unique and beautiful. The price fluctuation is influenced by supply and demand.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

Know this two facts about bitcoin and be rest assured for more courage on any related fear due to uncertainties about bitcoin, the first is that bitcoin cannot be regulated by the government, they have been trying to do that all these while but couldn't because what they are dealing with is not a centralized system that is attached to a particular network, persons or group of persons, bitcoin is decentralized and blockchain technology is well secured and immutable and as long as this two facts remain constant with bitcoin, they can't centralized it or regulate because bitcoin nodes work under the blockchain protocols and consensus.

The second instance is about the the volatility, why do you think bitcoin is volatile, because that's how the inventor which is Satoshi Nakamoto programmed the whole network and currency to be, whereby anyone can sell or buy independently through the use of the p2p network, some buy when dip, some hodl while some sell, the equilibrium shift in these makes the demands high or low with respect to the supply as well which then determines the price bitcoin is being sold.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

As we know bitcoin is one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies and is considered the pioneer in the field. It has been in existence since 2009 when it was founded by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin. There have also been discussions about regulating Bitcoin from various sources worldwide. On the other hand, volatility is one of the most prominent features of Bitcoin.
If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

Bitcoin volatility is mainly caused by the economic mechanism of demand and supply. The price will always go high when more people are buying. There will always be diverse economic factors that will make people buy or sell bitcoin so the value of the currency will never be stable. Regulating Bitcoin can be an effective means to reduce volatility because the government could make certain rules that can make the more stable. But regulating Bitcoin will be extremely difficult. Volatility will also reduce when Bitcoin is used solely as a currency and not as an investment, which is highly unlikely. Due to the uniqueness of Bitcoin, it will continue to be a store of values, and hedge against inflation and investment, so it might never be stable.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

As we know bitcoin is one of the most trusted cryptocurrencies and is considered the pioneer in the field. It has been in existence since 2009 when it was founded by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin. There have also been discussions about regulating Bitcoin from various sources worldwide. On the other hand, volatility is one of the most prominent features of Bitcoin.
If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

this is a pretty good question and i'll try to answer based on my view.

bitcoin is a decentralized coin and I'm sure everyone knows about it, this is what always makes the price of bitcoin always very volatile and will never be completely stable. The government will never be able to control bitcoin ^{(if they can then bitcoin has fallen into their control since a few years ago)}

volatile prices are the nature of bitcoin so changing it to be stable is an impossible mission, anyway there are stable coins scattered, why do you force and want bitcoin prices to be stable.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

This is to be expected, as this is what happens with other assets. When they are born or created they go through a period of high volatility and as they mature and their market cap grows, volatility is reduced. This happens a lot with companies, hence the division between small cap and large cap.

Bitcoin is already heavily regulated around the world, what is missing is more adoption, which together with halvings will reduce volatility.

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Nope.

They may control of regulations and rules but they will never control the volatility. Possible to move the markets and have themselves show the influence that they've got but it's not going to be permanent.

What is likely to reduce the volatility as what I've read before is whenever Bitcoin reaches the maximum supply. But how long do we need to wait for that? Estimated 2140, one hundred years and more from now.

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Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

Reports suggest that as of February 2023, there are over 40 million people who own Bitcoin.

Besides the fact that it is almost impossible to predict with accuracy the number of bitcoin users or holders, the article you linked contradics itself:
"• Over 44.15 million unique addresses have a non-zero balance of Bitcoin.
...
• About 46 million Americans (roughly 22% of the adult population) own a share of Bitcoin."

If 46 million Americans alone own a share of bitcoin, how can there be less than that amount in global unique addresses?

Quote from: Alphakilo on May 27, 2023, 02:39:38 AM

If more people adopt Bitcoin (e.g., 200 million people) and the government succeeds in regulating Bitcoin to some extent, would it reduce its volatility?

More adoption is the key to reduced volatility and not regulations. With more adoptions the price would not be shaken by the fewer weak hands who panic sell easily.

- Jay -

Topic: Is mass adoption or/and regulation more likely to reduce volatility? - page 3. (Read 520 times)