Is now the time to buy | Bitcointalksearch.org

notme

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Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 11, 2013, 04:51:54 PM

Quote from: notme on November 11, 2013, 03:59:38 PM

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 11, 2013, 11:47:31 AM

Quote from: notme on November 11, 2013, 11:42:22 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

The question is, how does that apply to an exponentially increasing stock like bitcoin?

Since when is bitcoin a stock? And since when does bitcoin only increase?

It's more that there are not many stocks with a growth rate like BTC, so (if you're NOT new to bitcoin), is it really a good idea to use DCA and stagger your buys over a relatively long timeframe when you see that growth is starting to pick up?

Yes, if you are a good trader and can reliably predict the market you can beat DCA. But with DCA there is less risk of making a bad buy. With Bitcoin newbies bad buys often lead to bad sells, which is why I make the suggestion. I've made no claim it is optimal for all people, but if you have to ask (hence this thread), you probably want something simple without excessive risk.

xephyr

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Quote from: gwoplock on November 11, 2013, 11:38:51 AM

I am new to Bitcoin and i am trying to figure out if i should buy now.

You can always use an indicator like Stochastic RSI (StochRSI) to help you enter at the best price.

There was a window on 11/9 late evening when StochRSI gave a buy signal and price was under $300 briefly.

Tirapon

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Quote from: Paladin69 on November 11, 2013, 01:19:57 PM

Quote from: SheHadMANHands on November 11, 2013, 01:14:53 PM

Quote from: Paladin69 on November 11, 2013, 01:11:45 PM

I still think we could drop to somewhere between $120-$150

I would wager heavily against that. Unless we're passing $120 on the way to zero..

Many people seem really uncomfortable with a new price outside of the $100-$150 range. I suspect only because we sat there for so long and it's sort of become an emotional, comfy zone.

The dead cat certainly bounced Saturday night. Whether he is wearing flubber shoes or not is the real question. It's the volume that does it for me. It is thin as air under there compared to April by a lot. Look close. There are fewer big actors moving this. I don't think it is malicious, but something is playing out.

Is it volume in BTC or in fiat that you are looking at? I haven't been paying attention to volume but I'd expect the volume in BTC to decrease as price increases.

BlueTemplar

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Quote from: notme on November 11, 2013, 03:59:38 PM

Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 11, 2013, 11:47:31 AM

Quote from: notme on November 11, 2013, 11:42:22 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

The question is, how does that apply to an exponentially increasing stock like bitcoin?

Since when is bitcoin a stock? And since when does bitcoin only increase?

It's more that there are not many stocks with a growth rate like BTC, so (if you're NOT new to bitcoin), is it really a good idea to use DCA and stagger your buys over a relatively long timeframe when you see that growth is starting to pick up?

BlueTemplar

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If only someone had told me this in June 2011 when I converted 50% of my savings into bitcoins at once at $28/BTC... Roll Eyes

notme

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Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 11, 2013, 04:35:00 PM

I think that's right, but for another reason : if you're new in bitcoin, then it's statistically more likely that a crash is about to happen (because of how the hype machine and bubbles work). So in that case, spreading the purchases over some time is probably better indeed. Or you could wait to buy after the crash, but in bitcoin's case it might be risky, because if you noticed the bubble early enough, the low after it pops might be higher than when you were ready to buy at the first time.

Exactly. Good luck picking the highs and lows, but if you are thinking about buying bitcoin for the first time others probably are too. Instead of throwing it all in and praying you didn't have horrible timing, DCA allows you to get a good average price no matter what happens in the short term.

BlueTemplar

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I think that's right, but for another reason : if you're new in bitcoin, then it's statistically more likely that a crash is about to happen (because of how the hype machine and bubbles work). So in that case, spreading the purchases over some time is probably better indeed. Or you could wait to buy after the crash, but in bitcoin's case it might be risky, because if you noticed the bubble early enough, the low after it pops might be higher than when you were ready to buy at the first time.

notme

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Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 11, 2013, 04:05:57 PM

Investment, whatever.

And maybe you haven't noticed, but on average bitcoins have been increasing since day one...

And there are many examples of times when it would be better to buy over time than buy all at once. I've been here since bitcoin was less than $1. What would be better, buying $500 worth at $266 each or buying $100 worth once a week for 5 weeks starting at the $266 peak? Yes, either is profitable at this point, but you would have a lot more BTC with the second option.

BlueTemplar

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Investment, whatever.

And maybe you haven't noticed, but on average bitcoins have been increasing since day one...

notme

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Quote from: BlueTemplar on November 11, 2013, 11:47:31 AM

Quote from: notme on November 11, 2013, 11:42:22 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging

The question is, how does that apply to an exponentially increasing stock like bitcoin?

Since when is bitcoin a stock? And since when does bitcoin only increase?

Paladin69

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Quote from: SheHadMANHands on November 11, 2013, 01:14:53 PM

Quote from: Paladin69 on November 11, 2013, 01:11:45 PM

I still think we could drop to somewhere between $120-$150

I would wager heavily against that. Unless we're passing $120 on the way to zero..

Many people seem really uncomfortable with a new price outside of the $100-$150 range. I suspect only because we sat there for so long and it's sort of become an emotional, comfy zone.

The dead cat certainly bounced Saturday night. Whether he is wearing flubber shoes or not is the real question. It's the volume that does it for me. It is thin as air under there compared to April by a lot. Look close. There are fewer big actors moving this. I don't think it is malicious, but something is playing out.

SheHadMANHands

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Quote from: Paladin69 on November 11, 2013, 01:11:45 PM

I still think we could drop to somewhere between $120-$150

I would wager heavily against that. Unless we're passing $120 on the way to zero..

Many people seem really uncomfortable with a new price outside of the $100-$150 range. I suspect only because we sat there for so long and it's sort of become an emotional, comfy zone.

Paladin69

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Quote from: BitchicksHusband on November 11, 2013, 12:55:21 PM

Quote from: gwoplock on November 11, 2013, 11:38:51 AM

I am new to Bitcoin and i am trying to figure out if i should buy now.

Most of us believe that long-term, Bitcoin will go to between $10,000 and $100,000 per coin. Once you realize how likely that is, you really aren't going to care whether you got in at $313 or $350. Just get in before the exponential growth takes us to $400.

And then when it drops to $120 you will be kicking yourself because you could've bought 3x more. Nobody knows...

I personally don't like chasing bubbles. I'm not going to say "sell", but the volume on this sucker is a lot less than it was in April...

I still think we could drop to somewhere between $120-$150

SheHadMANHands

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Quote from: MAbtc on November 11, 2013, 12:49:57 PM

I stopped bringing new dollars in a long time ago. I'd be pretty uneasy buying in at these prices. Sure, there is a LOT of upside risk -- so if you have risk tolerance, go for it. Lots of money to be made.

But we could drop violently as well! Grin

You just have to be very ready with Bitcoin to lose it all. The price could potentially go to zero in the future, at which point it wouldn't matter if you bought at $300 or $100. With the higher price, there's generally a bit less risk of that coming to fruition, as price is an indication of increased awareness, sense of optimism, etc.

Most people believe Bitcoin is a binary outcome: $0 or $100k (something like that). If that's the case, the only downside risk you should be concerned with, in the long run, is a complete lose. On the other end, your upside potential obviously gets a little lower as the price goes up and you buy.. but it's still huge.

RodeoX

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The revolution will be monetized!

If i knew for sure I wold tell you. But you will have to guess with the rest of us. Personally I think there is a huge amount of growth in value coming, so I bought some.

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: gwoplock on November 11, 2013, 11:38:51 AM

I am new to Bitcoin and i am trying to figure out if i should buy now.

Most of us believe that long-term, Bitcoin will go to between $10,000 and $100,000 per coin. Once you realize how likely that is, you really aren't going to care whether you got in at $313 or $350. Just get in before the exponential growth takes us to $400.

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

understand why bitcoin is extremely volatile and growing fast, and place your bids / asks accordingly. good luck! Cheesy

MAbtc

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I stopped bringing new dollars in a long time ago. I'd be pretty uneasy buying in at these prices. Sure, there is a LOT of upside risk -- so if you have risk tolerance, go for it. Lots of money to be made.

But we could drop violently as well! Grin

derpinheimer

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Quote from: bitcon on November 11, 2013, 11:46:27 AM

i missed the bottom around 270, but i picked up a few coins at 313. its hard to tell whats going to happen. i expected china to wake up and panic sell, but apparently there are no bears in china. we here in the US crash the market, and china gets all our cheap coins.

Why would you expect China to panic sell on a Monday? Sounds like you just made something up to re-affirm your position.

BittBurger

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Quote from: bitcon on November 11, 2013, 11:46:27 AM

i expected china to wake up and panic sell, but apparently there are no bears in china. we here in the US crash the market, and china gets all our cheap coins.

They are smarter than we are.

Topic: Is now the time to buy (Read 2213 times)