Is "speculation leaving the market"? What does low BTC volatility really mean?

timotron

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Quote from: Rune on November 05, 2018, 05:15:33 PM

Bitcoin prices are getting to high for speculators to really see the huge gains they imagined before when you buy at 6k it has to gain 1 trillion dollars in market cap for you just to 10x your investment.
That does not sound very appealing to me bitcoin is high even at 6000 never mind some crazy number like 60,000 we need to see many more realworld use and adoption before we imagine these crazy prices.
At this point I think these same investors would rather buy smaller altcoins and just bet on them becoming big like bitcoin safer and more likely bet.

Maybe right, but not all a looking for a quick 10x with BTC, others may be looking at it like gold, or a not very risky bet (if you compare to the low cap coins)

There are always some Gems coming up, let's see if the volatility there brings some nice numbers up.

Rune

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Bitcoin prices are getting to high for speculators to really see the huge gains they imagined before when you buy at 6k it has to gain 1 trillion dollars in market cap for you just to 10x your investment.
That does not sound very appealing to me bitcoin is high even at 6000 never mind some crazy number like 60,000 we need to see many more realworld use and adoption before we imagine these crazy prices.
At this point I think these same investors would rather buy smaller altcoins and just bet on them becoming big like bitcoin safer and more likely bet.

gamalzour

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Quote from: pooya87 on November 02, 2018, 01:15:46 AM

Quote from: cellard on November 01, 2018, 11:34:37 PM

The market volume data gathered from exchanges is misleading as we cannot ever know what's going on behind the curtain (that's OTC trading). I wonder how volatility % would be if we knew all the trading going out outside of our reach.

I don't doubt for a second OTC volume has only been going up in the past few years. I know there were some recent news of a 144k buy which then was supposedly debunked, however this doesn't mean huge buy orders aren't happening OTC, and all of that data we cannot track so the analysis is always incomplete.

Eventually OTC will dry and whales will be forced to enter exchanges, but until then we just can guess.

speaking of speculation and price, the OTC volume does not matter at all because what happens outside of the market and out of our vision does not affect the market at all. if you sell $100 million bitcoin off the market and over the counter or if you buy that much, that still doesn't change the price 1 cent! why? because you are not buying it from the market aka exchanges where the price is determined. so the volume that exchanges report is not misleading. (it may be misleading only if they report fake volume but that is another topic).

That is the thing! What happens within the exchange is what they want common man to believe and then since that is what basically determines the main price, they will most definitely be buying in large volumes over the counter as this would be their usual way.

Once they are done accumulating, that is when a lot of people will get to see that volatility is not yet out of the market and there will still be more to come. They are market makers, and they will always know how to keep making the market to favor them in the long run until they are holding huge stash of the positions as much as they can.

geopolisch

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Quote from: frchowe214 on November 01, 2018, 03:41:31 AM

It's only boring for the investors that look at the top end on the coincarketcap rankings as they all follow bitcoin. Look at the bottom end of the top 100 and you can make a killing if you pick the right altcoin

I would not see anything as boring at the moment, because what I see honestly is the market at least picking where to go, up or down and until then, we will see this sideways movement.

However, what you said, makes a lot of sense, and when the market eventually recovers, there is always the necessity to at least, try as much as possible to be picking the right coins or tokens with great potentials at the moment. However, speculation is still going to be fully part of this market until we start seeing real life usage and there is actually nothing we can do about that.

talkbitcoin

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All I know is that I know nothing.

we always have times like this when people seemingly give up on bitcoin and it seems like the speculation has left the market. but if you look more closely at the market you can see that the volume is still up, whether on exchanges or off exchanges.
and also you can see that there is "wise money" that is being invested in bitcoin while price is kept stable and low!

Bitcotalk

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Quote from: Snaic on October 31, 2018, 11:29:41 PM

Quote from: Xardasim on October 27, 2018, 06:35:51 PM

In my opinion the market is getting ready for big movement. Now everyone has their last hope, end of year increase and ETF decision. If this event will not happen and if we will enter 2019 from current price, we can fall below 6k.

Yes, I also think so. In many ways, the movement of the market next year will determine how Bitcoin will behave in these two last months of the year. If there is no growth in the cryptocurrency market at this time, there will be a deep disappointment with cryptocurrency users and potential investors. In this regard, the stagnation of the market may be delayed for a long time. I would not like to observe such stagnation also in the first half of 2019.

Speculation is always going to be a part of the market, but the thing we should be looking at is that rather than the market being extremely and totally speculative in nature, we should see it become more usable as that is what would create a balance and at least reduce the level of speculation and volatility in the market.

The fact that we are seeing low volatility now is basically because the market is trying to find the next move, and in such period, we always get to see lower volume in most cases, which right now, once we get to see a breakout, a lot of you will see that volatility has still not left the market.

wuvdoll

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Quote from: cellard on November 01, 2018, 11:34:37 PM

The market volume data gathered from exchanges is misleading as we cannot ever know what's going on behind the curtain (that's OTC trading). I wonder how volatility % would be if we knew all the trading going out outside of our reach.

I don't doubt for a second OTC volume has only been going up in the past few years. I know there were some recent news of a 144k buy which then was supposedly debunked, however this doesn't mean huge buy orders aren't happening OTC, and all of that data we cannot track so the analysis is always incomplete.

Eventually OTC will dry and whales will be forced to enter exchanges, but until then we just can guess.

As far as I am concerned, what is going on in the market or on exchanges is just what I see as a strategy to keep holding the price to some level so as to achieve the accumulation phase, which we all know that the amount most institutions will be purchasing to get in is not something they will basically be doing on any exchange as that could have a huge effect on it.

Basically, most exchanges put together will not even be able to hold up the volume, so in a way, I believe like you said, they will basically be accumulating the OTC way and keep acquiring as much as they can, while suppressing the price for as long as they can. The funds are there to do all this effectively and it has been their game, so they basically know how to do it well.

buwaytress

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Quote from: pooya87 on November 02, 2018, 01:15:46 AM

Quote from: cellard on November 01, 2018, 11:34:37 PM

The market volume data gathered from exchanges is misleading as we cannot ever know what's going on behind the curtain (that's OTC trading). I wonder how volatility % would be if we knew all the trading going out outside of our reach.

I don't doubt for a second OTC volume has only been going up in the past few years. I know there were some recent news of a 144k buy which then was supposedly debunked, however this doesn't mean huge buy orders aren't happening OTC, and all of that data we cannot track so the analysis is always incomplete.

Eventually OTC will dry and whales will be forced to enter exchanges, but until then we just can guess.

speaking of speculation and price, the OTC volume does not matter at all because what happens outside of the market and out of our vision does not affect the market at all. if you sell $100 million bitcoin off the market and over the counter or if you buy that much, that still doesn't change the price 1 cent! why? because you are not buying it from the market aka exchanges where the price is determined. so the volume that exchanges report is not misleading. (it may be misleading only if they report fake volume but that is another topic).

All signs seem to point to OTC volumes going up. Even if it's circumstancial evidence, the orders are getting larger, getting deeper.

We're not also looking at p2p volumes, which are definitely making a comeback especially now that there are so many alternatives to Localbitcoins.

And then, we'll truly see volume flee exchanges once second layer and off chain trading like on LN take hold.

STT

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Quote from: timotron on October 27, 2018, 04:05:54 AM

What do you guys think about the low volatility last days?

A lower range has been apparent for months I think, its just become more obvious in the autumn then previously but a few noticed it happening for upto 6 months now. Theres a bit of a triangle between the lowest prices and the highest seen, I already thought this had closed and we had a breakout scenario but nothing happened so it seems we wait further.

The main obvious reason is the trading of bitcoin price contracts in Chicago and hedging is down around prices based on a fixed price there

exstasie

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Quote from: pooya87 on November 02, 2018, 01:15:46 AM

Quote from: cellard on November 01, 2018, 11:34:37 PM

Eventually OTC will dry and whales will be forced to enter exchanges, but until then we just can guess.

speaking of speculation and price, the OTC volume does not matter at all because what happens outside of the market and out of our vision does not affect the market at all. if you sell $100 million bitcoin off the market and over the counter or if you buy that much, that still doesn't change the price 1 cent! why? because you are not buying it from the market aka exchanges where the price is determined.

OTC transactions may not affect the spot market price, but in general, OTC market liquidity (or lack thereof) does affect spot market prices.

It's not the volume per se, but the available liquidity. For instance, if miners can't sell coins OTC, they'll dump on exchanges. If investors can't buy coins OTC, they'll buy on exchanges. This obviously affects price. That's what cellard was talking about.

It would certainly be interesting to see data about the OTC market. It's all a mystery to us retail plebs.

pooya87

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Quote from: cellard on November 01, 2018, 11:34:37 PM

The market volume data gathered from exchanges is misleading as we cannot ever know what's going on behind the curtain (that's OTC trading). I wonder how volatility % would be if we knew all the trading going out outside of our reach.

I don't doubt for a second OTC volume has only been going up in the past few years. I know there were some recent news of a 144k buy which then was supposedly debunked, however this doesn't mean huge buy orders aren't happening OTC, and all of that data we cannot track so the analysis is always incomplete.

Eventually OTC will dry and whales will be forced to enter exchanges, but until then we just can guess.

speaking of speculation and price, the OTC volume does not matter at all because what happens outside of the market and out of our vision does not affect the market at all. if you sell $100 million bitcoin off the market and over the counter or if you buy that much, that still doesn't change the price 1 cent! why? because you are not buying it from the market aka exchanges where the price is determined. so the volume that exchanges report is not misleading. (it may be misleading only if they report fake volume but that is another topic).

cellard

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The market volume data gathered from exchanges is misleading as we cannot ever know what's going on behind the curtain (that's OTC trading). I wonder how volatility % would be if we knew all the trading going out outside of our reach.

I don't doubt for a second OTC volume has only been going up in the past few years. I know there were some recent news of a 144k buy which then was supposedly debunked, however this doesn't mean huge buy orders aren't happening OTC, and all of that data we cannot track so the analysis is always incomplete.

Eventually OTC will dry and whales will be forced to enter exchanges, but until then we just can guess.

South Park

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Quote from: timotron on October 27, 2018, 04:05:54 AM

What do you guys think about the low volatility last days?

I found this:

Quote

As for the future of the cryptocurrency market, Charlie Morris of Atlantic House Fund Management in London believes that the low volatility will only temporarily deter speculation, and a sense of boredom or frustration might lead to a surge in prices sometime soon. "Given this bear market is now 10 months old and is getting tired, I’d be inclined to be bullish for the next major move", he told Bloomberg.

Source: https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/4706/is-speculation-leaving-the-market-what-does-low-btc-volatility-really-mean-.html

So Bloomberg is somehow bullish, I am too!

The current low volatility is just temporal and it should be a good sign for the investors to begin to comeback since those are the conditions they like the most, a low price and low volatility, but the ones that should be desperate are the ones that love the volatility like the speculators since they are probably not making any money at the moment.

jseverson

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Quote from: Snaic on October 31, 2018, 11:29:41 PM

Yes, I also think so. In many ways, the movement of the market next year will determine how Bitcoin will behave in these two last months of the year. If there is no growth in the cryptocurrency market at this time, there will be a deep disappointment with cryptocurrency users and potential investors. In this regard, the stagnation of the market may be delayed for a long time. I would not like to observe such stagnation also in the first half of 2019.

Did you mean movement for the last two months will determine how Bitcoin will behave next year? But yeah I personally don't think there will be any drastic movements until next year (and maybe midway into it, even). People keep talking about bull runs, but it currently feels like the $6k support breaking is more likely. I hope I'm wrong, but we'll see I suppose.

Either way, I'd say it's probable that speculators are just hodling, at least as far as Bitcoin is concerned. I seriously don't think they'd be leaving the market entirely just because of low stability.

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Quote from: frchowe214 on November 01, 2018, 03:41:31 AM

It's only boring for the investors that look at the top end on the coincarketcap rankings as they all follow bitcoin. Look at the bottom end of the top 100 and you can make a killing if you pick the right altcoin

actually none of the altcoins really follow bitcoin even the top ones. the thing is, when bitcoin falls all of them fall harder which has created this illusion that they may be following bitcoin. but if you compare charts together you can see that there are enough exceptions to make this untrue.

as for what altcoin to choose, you don't choose a coin that has dropped. you choose a coin that is about to rise or is getting pumped. otherwise there are coins that have dropped and if you buy them you will end up buying something that either never rises or will take a very long time to have any kind of pump.

frchowe214

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It's only boring for the investors that look at the top end on the coincarketcap rankings as they all follow bitcoin. Look at the bottom end of the top 100 and you can make a killing if you pick the right altcoin

Snaic

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Quote from: Xardasim on October 27, 2018, 06:35:51 PM

In my opinion the market is getting ready for big movement. Now everyone has their last hope, end of year increase and ETF decision. If this event will not happen and if we will enter 2019 from current price, we can fall below 6k.

Yes, I also think so. In many ways, the movement of the market next year will determine how Bitcoin will behave in these two last months of the year. If there is no growth in the cryptocurrency market at this time, there will be a deep disappointment with cryptocurrency users and potential investors. In this regard, the stagnation of the market may be delayed for a long time. I would not like to observe such stagnation also in the first half of 2019.

dothebeats

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One thing is that the volume is somewhat transferred to another asset/coin that's why there haven't been any movements for bitcoin recently. A slow trading scenario doesn't necessarily mean that volatility is lost (for cryptocurrencies, of course). Do note that there are also other assets in which traders might be invested to and are tending those first since they are more profitable than bitcoin at the present moment. Even I would move my funds into other assets first if I see that they are ripe for the picking and the opportunity is present compared to keeping up with bitcoin while everyone is away.

cluit

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Quote from: timotron on October 27, 2018, 04:05:54 AM

What do you guys think about the low volatility last days?

I found this:

Quote

As for the future of the cryptocurrency market, Charlie Morris of Atlantic House Fund Management in London believes that the low volatility will only temporarily deter speculation, and a sense of boredom or frustration might lead to a surge in prices sometime soon. "Given this bear market is now 10 months old and is getting tired, I’d be inclined to be bullish for the next major move", he told Bloomberg.

Source: https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/4706/is-speculation-leaving-the-market-what-does-low-btc-volatility-really-mean-.html

So Bloomberg is somehow bullish, I am too!

I do not think they are leaving the market however the volume is not enough for them to manipulate the way they want to. Right now they are capable of doing it at minor scale but they used to do it a lot more and change it a lot higher and lower, with this low volume of bitcoin it is a lot harder to buy or sell at their levels without disturbing the market all together.

They are probably waiting on something just as we do so they could get back into manipulating, if something huge happens than the market will be alive again and the volume will get higher again and when the volume goes higher than the whales who manipulate the market will comeback. They are not that much different than you and I, they manipulate in a way that they try to buy low and sell high, however they sometimes make it low and make it high themselves for it, that's the only difference.

timotron

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Quote from: rickadone on October 29, 2018, 11:45:42 AM

The low we are talking about both low compared to what it used to be and also exchanges are known to meddle with their own volumes to make sure they look like one of the most active places.

We in our country can check it honestly because places that changes from fiat to bitcoin here actually shows how much it was sold without a lie (I mean probably because it really gets low and gets high according to market without hesitation and it really got quite low for couple days like 1-2 bitcoin a day compared to 100+ last December) so I have a chance at looking volume like what it is, maybe not exactly but at least shows me the trend.

I have seen bitcoin volumes to go up as much as 360 btc in our country at the peak last year and than during the august and September months it was insanely low and dropped to 1-2 btc a day and mostly around 4-5 bitcoins at most. Lately it has risen back up a bit to 16 bitcoins a day on average and that tells me even though we are not back to great days, people are expecting it to go back up.

great county, so transparent, I wonder which one is it.

Great study about volume, and I share your idea about people expectation. I see a lot of interest in the streets again in my country.

keep us updated if volumen rises there!

Topic: Is "speculation leaving the market"? What does low BTC volatility really mean? (Read 449 times)