sorry for my stupidity but what is TA?
trend analysis, for predicting prices/rallies/downfall
Lol somebody said "terrorist activity" and I believed that
Topic: Is TA evidence-based? - page 2. (Read 2077 times)
trend analysis, for predicting prices/rallies/downfall
Lol somebody said "terrorist activity" and I believed that
sorry for my stupidity but what is TA?
trend analysis, for predicting prices/rallies/downfall
Lol somebody said "terrorist activity" and I believed that
sorry for my stupidity but what is TA?
Technical Analysis. Predicting future price movement based on previous price/volume history. Charts, trends, indicators etc. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis 
sorry for my stupidity but what is TA?
trend analysis, for predicting prices/rallies/downfall
sorry for my stupidity but what is TA?
Thanks to everybody who took part in the poll (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/whats-your-opinion-about-ta-and-911-730862).
I don't know established name for the "USA did 9/11", hypotesis, so I'll call it "truth" here, for brevity.
And my apologies to those that think it wasn't sensitive enough to run such a poll. Probably you are right and I should have used the "Americans weren't in the Moon" instead.
My opinion on the questions.
I don't know if TA works. Actually the purpose of the poll was to find it out. (I know, it's a bit too ambitious, to draw any conclusions based on poll of 48 votes). I don't believe in "truth". No, I'm not been conditioned by US propaganda. I'm not american, I have grown in an anti-american ideology atmosphere and my current ideology is anarcho-capitalism. Still, the "truth" theory doesn't fit in my world picture. I'm not saying that it's impossible, but I'm saying that it is extraordinary claim and as such it requires extraordinary evidences. While, AFAIK, the evidences are even less than ordinary. Therefore, I think that people that believe in "truth" doing it not because of evidences, but because of their desire to believe. Or, to put it other way, the "truth" isn't extraordinary claim for them, it fits easily in their world picture because their world picture is strongly distorted by their (dis)likes. I think that "truth"ers are more prone to self-deception than average people. So if we'll find out that a hypothesis (say, TA) is supported mainly by "truth"ers it may be sign of absence of good evidences for the hypothesis (and of it's strong emotional appeal).
OK, now the results.
(Results are adjusted: I've moved one vote to other cell, my sincere apologies to JustAnotherSheep).
What does math tell us?
1. About half of us (25:23) believe in "truth".
2. TA is slightly more credible (29:23) than "truth".
3. Correlation between belief in "truth" and belief in TA is 0.094 (maximal possible = 1, so the correlation is quite weak).
What does it mean?
1 is much more than I expected, and probably much more than among average population. Why? My versions:
a) It's bitcoin forum. More anti-establishment people here. Revolutionaries we are.
b) It's speculation forum. More self-decepting people here. Gamblers we are.
2 is good news for TA supporters: TA may have real evidences for it.
3 is not as big as I was afraid of. This is not bad news for TA supporters: although there is some element of blind faith in TA support, it is not large, so evidences for TA may be real after all.
tl;dr; Poll shows: TA is not based purely on blind faith.
EDIT: fixed math in 2.
I don't know established name for the "USA did 9/11", hypotesis, so I'll call it "truth" here, for brevity.
And my apologies to those that think it wasn't sensitive enough to run such a poll. Probably you are right and I should have used the "Americans weren't in the Moon" instead.
My opinion on the questions.
I don't know if TA works. Actually the purpose of the poll was to find it out. (I know, it's a bit too ambitious, to draw any conclusions based on poll of 48 votes). I don't believe in "truth". No, I'm not been conditioned by US propaganda. I'm not american, I have grown in an anti-american ideology atmosphere and my current ideology is anarcho-capitalism. Still, the "truth" theory doesn't fit in my world picture. I'm not saying that it's impossible, but I'm saying that it is extraordinary claim and as such it requires extraordinary evidences. While, AFAIK, the evidences are even less than ordinary. Therefore, I think that people that believe in "truth" doing it not because of evidences, but because of their desire to believe. Or, to put it other way, the "truth" isn't extraordinary claim for them, it fits easily in their world picture because their world picture is strongly distorted by their (dis)likes. I think that "truth"ers are more prone to self-deception than average people. So if we'll find out that a hypothesis (say, TA) is supported mainly by "truth"ers it may be sign of absence of good evidences for the hypothesis (and of it's strong emotional appeal).
OK, now the results.
(Results are adjusted: I've moved one vote to other cell, my sincere apologies to JustAnotherSheep
).Code:
|------------|
| TA |
|------|-----|
| yes | no |
|--------|------|------|-----|
| truth | yes | 15 | 8 |
| |------|------|-----|
| | no | 14 | 11 |
|--------|------|------|-----|
What does math tell us?
1. About half of us (25:23) believe in "truth".
2. TA is slightly more credible (29:23) than "truth".
3. Correlation between belief in "truth" and belief in TA is 0.094 (maximal possible = 1, so the correlation is quite weak).
What does it mean?
1 is much more than I expected, and probably much more than among average population. Why? My versions:
a) It's bitcoin forum. More anti-establishment people here. Revolutionaries we are.
b) It's speculation forum. More self-decepting people here. Gamblers we are.
2 is good news for TA supporters: TA may have real evidences for it.
3 is not as big as I was afraid of. This is not bad news for TA supporters: although there is some element of blind faith in TA support, it is not large, so evidences for TA may be real after all.
tl;dr; Poll shows: TA is not based purely on blind faith.
EDIT: fixed math in 2.
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