Theres 7.5 billion people in the world. That number will grow. There's only 21 million BTC. Sure it can be broken down to infinite numbers of decimal points and yada yada but with 17 million already mined and accounted for, is it reasonable to expect the 7.425 billion people who haven't adopted bitcoin yet to accept the current inflation of the coin??
$2 per coin in 2012
$15000 per coin in 2017
That's 7500% increase based on what exactly? Theres mining costs of course. But is that a storage of value? Or a loss of value? Think about what is really happening as coins are mined. Fiat currency is exchanged for equipment to create digital currency. The digital currency is then sold for fiat currency. The equipment expires and the digital currency becomes, theoretically, more and more difficult as well as expensive to create.
Approximately 1% of the world has adopted bitcoin. This has artificially skyrocketed prices to an unsustainable rate of 7500% in 5 years. If the 7.425 billion people who still use fiat currency agree to use bitcoin, there's no way they will agree to deflate their own purchasing power by 7500%. I think the current price of bitcoin is impractical for mainstream adoption.
I think a niche group (first 1% of population) who see the vision and the future of crypto have artificially driven this price up so high that it isn't likely the remaining population of the world will buy into it (at the current levels). Sure crypto could be the future of our money system. But the current prices do not seem realistic if we are trying to get the entire world in on it. I don't think crypto needs universal adoption to be successful, but it certainly needs more users and use in general than it has now. As it stands now, bitcoin and altcoins are more of an investment tool and less of an actual currency.
Do you think the current price of bitcoin is practical?
Your reasoning doesn't seem to make sense. You talk about artificially skyrocketing the price and asking what 7500% increase is based on. It's based on pure supply and demand. Nothing more nothing less. How does that make it artificial? It's impossible for it to be artificial because the price is based purely on market demand, which means the price is always exactly where it should be because there are no artificial influences that can affect it.
And how exactly are you getting the idea that buying bitcoin deflates your purchasing power? Purchasing power is deflated by inflationary currencies. Bitcoin is deflationary which means the opposite of what you are saying - as more people buy they will get more purchasing power. People will buy it at these prices and at ten times these prices precisely because unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin doesn't deflate your purchasing power, in fact it increases your purchasing power.
I think the OP is speaking in market terms here. The word "artificial" is referring to how there are little or no underlying fundamental reasons why the price has increased so fast. There is little or no news that drives prices...and what little news that may or may not drive prices...people only speculate or correlate the volatility that may or may not follow it. It's like Jamie Dimon condemning BTC and the price goes down...but then the grand poobah of Vanguard (much more influential and credible) does the same and the result is ATH. So the news probably isn't the driver here. Also what drives the price is greed and the same things that drove crazes in the past. These are considered "artificial" motivators by markets since they are unpredictable.
As far as reduced purchasing power it's all about fees, transaction times, and places where BTC is accepted. The fees alone make purchases impractical for most users...so they just HODL and cling to hope of a miracle in the future. If no one is spending their coins, that is a net decrease in economic purchasing power with respect to volume and the amount of tangible goods trading hands.
So only new news is allowed to increase the of Bitcoin? Doesn't seem to be a very good definition of "real" gains and "artificial" gains. Besides there were three main pieces of news this week. The main one was that CBOE is starting futures on Monday, whereas before they had said they would start first quarter 2018. Also LN got tested for first time ever today, and Square expanded its Bitcoin integration to more users. The latter two are both big pieces of news. But the first one is more the driver of the price surge, because I think its pretty obvious the price surge is due to a combination of people wanting to get in before Wall St gets in and also Wall St starting to get in before futures start. That's a pretty solid reason for the price to rise.
Fees, transactions times, and places where BTC is accepted have nothing to do with purchasing power. Purchasing power has to do with the value of the asset against the standard currency. Bitcoin increases in value against fiat currency as more people buy it. Period. There's no other possible definition of purchasing power.
I didn't say that it was good...but there aren't many alternative explanations out there. You're right...it's common for something to pump days away from a big event and then dump right before the event happens...exactly like we are seeing right now with the CME opening in a few hours. LN isn't newsworthy yet. It's still very beta and probably priced in by the very few that know about it. I can't comment on Square but that's probably priced in as well. Keep in mind that most of the current value of BTC isn't driven by LN or Square...since most of the new money probably has no idea about the scalability problems either. They are mostly greedy bastards chasing a parabola like they do in the stock market or have done for a century. As I said above, people are going to want to get out before the futures begin. That's what we are seeing now and it's typical of people who trade on technicals.
Of course they have everything to do with purchasing power. If I have $10 of BTC and I want to eat at McDonalds, I can only pay for myself after fees are figured in. If I have $10 cash, I can pay for myself and someone else. We're talking about the here and now....we're not talking about the far future since very few in this world save cash as it is. Discussing BTC in the future tense is moot anyway since no one knows how long it will be around. Either way unless you can come up with a proof that absolves me of paying fees to EAT or DRINK (not much else matters to life) I think you might be better served to rethink the bigger picture here and the problems BTC is facing with respect to the average person and its original intended purpose as a currency.
Just wanted to point out here that in terms of purchasing power ShortCoins said BTC had lost 7500% purchasing power, which obviously is the exact opposite of the truth. I was pointing that out. That has nothing to do with fees, he was just simply deriving the exact opposite conclusion of what the facts have actually been and I was explaining that.
As far as fees go, nobody is using Bitcoin to buy $10 of something because yes this year the fees have become too high for that. You don't want to talk about the future when it will be absolutely possible to spend $10 on something or even 10 cents on something, ok fine then we also won't bother talking about the types of purchases that nobody is doing right now. Also note that even though you don't want to talk about the future, the entire adoption of the technology is of course based around its future implications and uses, and of course also the idea of losing or gaining purchasing power implies a change in the future, so you can't really talk about these things without including a change in time. So you might want to rethink how you think about purchasing power and Bitcoin to make it more relevant to the discussions of the technology at hand. Anyways, people are however buying real estate and cars and other big items with Bitcoin and paying a $5 fee or something like that is far cheaper than buying those things with standard ways like credit cards or bank transfers.
And I don't think we're seeing people getting out before futures. What we just saw was a lot of people getting IN before futures, and then a very expected correction that happens after every big quick rise, regardless of the reason for the rise. Futures should be very positive for bitcoin in the long term because it leads to Wall St buying Bitcoin eventually and even if futures people tend to short more than go long, they can either not try to manipulate the market for their shorts in which case they are just gonna lose a ton of money, or they can buy into bitcoin in order to try to direct at least a little bit of market manipulation but by that very act of having to buy in they also drive the price higher, and anytime they want to short they have to drive the price higher, meanwhile the price going higher means a lot of new money outside of Wall St continues to roll in, meaning even if they can occasionally manipulate the price downwards they will be buying in higher and higher as demand among the public naturally continues to rise.
Ok I missed the part about purchasing power in his context....l'm human for now
I do not believe for one second that BTC or any independent crypto will replace all global fiat. Governments would chip all of us and go cashless before they allowed independent money anyway. So fair enough on that point.
On the point that I don't want to discuss the future of fees is because all we have is speculation at this point about the LN that may or may not make a dent...if BTC can hold off its competitors in the timeframe to make something like that viable. This is the most important issue on the table. I have my doubts about a resolution since they've had 8 years to avoid what is happening right now and, even though I don't believe that prices will go to $50K per coin what will fees be like then for anything other than very large purchases? All that matters is that, if the transaction times and fees that 99% of users deal in aren't solved by then, even the most braindead of the noobs will know that BTC is dead in the water and LN will be for nothing. Everyone will have moved on to other cryptos long before said rollout of LN assuming it works. The "relative" purchasing power for that 99% will only get worse/increasingly impractical unless they buy big ticket items. There's too much volatility for that anyway and I don't really believe those big ticket stories. No one likes surprises between the time that the deal is made and the contract is signed and notarized to the tune of what most earn in a year. In this it's hard to rethink a system that is not working in the way that it was promised and can only get much worse before it has even a glimmer of hope at getting better. All it makes me think about is how much more attractive alt-coins look with each passing day, and most people I talk to say the same thing.
With respect to futures it's very simple. There's really no reason to go long. Futures are supposed to be a hedge. Therefore whenever there is a new high or a price run-up, the futures market will short. There's really nowhere else for it to go assuming that most of those doing the shorting are doing so to lock in profits on the actual coins that they hold. If the price runs up and the exchanges become inaccessible like they always do lately, there is no better insurance than being able to short to protect that new ATH of $20K should it actually go up that much per coin. Before futures were available, the price could hit a high and by the time someone could sell the price might have fallen $1-2K per coin. Not anymore. The futures markets might actually function in the way that they were intended to function for the first time in decades...to protect profits. Again, I see no reason to go long futures or options if I need to pay interest when I can just buy the actual coins. So I see your point but I don't exactly agree with the logic in a real world cause and effect scenario with respect to long positions. If anything, banks will just come in and do the same to BTC long positions as they do to gold and silver longs.