Is the expected waiting time for a block always 10 min? - page 2.

justusranvier

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Quote from: DannyHamilton on March 06, 2015, 09:07:54 AM

There is no relevant decreasing of the search space.

If the difficulty has recently been adjusted (it is adjusted every 2016 blocks, which is approximately every 2 weeks), then the average time until a block is solved is 10 minutes. It doesn't matter if its been 3 hours since the last block, or if 10 blocks were all just solved in the past 15 seconds. The average time until the current block will be solved is 10 minutes.

If blocks are solved every 10 minutes on average, then shouldn't the average answer to the question "How long do I need to wait until the next block is solved?" be 5 minutes?

Brewins

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statistically the blocks are being generated faster than 10min.

Check the expected time of halvings and the real time of the halvings to confirm it

DannyHamilton

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Quote from: Spjuth on March 06, 2015, 08:50:26 AM

- snip -
My question is about average waiting time for a block. Is the average time until a new block is found always 10 min no matter how long I have waited, or does the average waiting time decrease the more time has passed since the last block?

Edit: I'm waiting for a confirmation right now, that's why I'm asking Wink

There is no relevant decreasing of the search space.

If the difficulty has recently been adjusted (it is adjusted every 2016 blocks, which is approximately every 2 weeks), then the average time until a block is solved is 10 minutes. It doesn't matter if its been 3 hours since the last block, or if 10 blocks were all just solved in the past 15 seconds. The average time until the current block will be solved is 10 minutes.

Note that if hash power has been added to the network since the last difficulty adjustment (new miners joining, or existing miners upgrading their hardware), then the average time is decreased. If the hash power is steadily increasing, then the average time until the current block is solved decreases in direct proportion to the increase in hash power since the last difficulty adjustment (imagine your hypothetical dice roller rolling the dice faster, or rolling more dice at once). Then when difficulty is adjusted again, the average time is re-adjusted back to 10 minutes (imagine increasing the number of sides on the hypothetical die from 6 to 10, or 20, or 100, or whatever is necessary to get the appropriate target time of 10 minutes between successful rolls).

dothebeats

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Quote from: Spjuth on March 06, 2015, 08:50:26 AM

Quote from: nextblast on March 06, 2015, 08:47:28 AM

To say 10 min per block is only statistically right.
You might see several blocks mined in a row in a few minutes but in another time none for an hour.

Height    Age    Transactions    Total Sent    Relayed By    Size (kB)
346427    29 minutes    46    1,773.59 BTC    BTC Guild    21.74
346426    29 minutes    217    607.58 BTC    F2Pool    119.97
346425    32 minutes    772    6,959.44 BTC    BTC Guild    416.73
346424    46 minutes    320    1,659.23 BTC    F2Pool    155.84
346423    51 minutes    1010    8,987.83 BTC    F2Pool    507.12
346422    1 hour 10 minutes    614    6,597.82 BTC    KnCMiner    417.55

Yes, I understand that. My question is about average waiting time for a block. Is the average time until a new block is found always 10 min no matter how long I have waited, or does the average waiting time decrease the more time has passed since the last block?

Edit: I'm waiting for a confirmation right now, that's why I'm asking Wink

The average time is 10 minutes. But as to what nextblast have said, several blocks could be mined in a row and there could be none for an hour.

Spjuth

newbie

Activity: 55

Merit: 0

Quote from: nextblast on March 06, 2015, 08:47:28 AM

To say 10 min per block is only statistically right.
You might see several blocks mined in a row in a few minutes but in another time none for an hour.

Height    Age    Transactions    Total Sent    Relayed By    Size (kB)
346427    29 minutes    46    1,773.59 BTC    BTC Guild    21.74
346426    29 minutes    217    607.58 BTC    F2Pool    119.97
346425    32 minutes    772    6,959.44 BTC    BTC Guild    416.73
346424    46 minutes    320    1,659.23 BTC    F2Pool    155.84
346423    51 minutes    1010    8,987.83 BTC    F2Pool    507.12
346422    1 hour 10 minutes    614    6,597.82 BTC    KnCMiner    417.55

Yes, I understand that. My question is about average waiting time for a block. Is the average time until a new block is found always 10 min no matter how long I have waited, or does the average waiting time decrease the more time has passed since the last block?

Edit: I'm waiting for a confirmation right now, that's why I'm asking Wink

nextblast

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

To say 10 min per block is only statistically right.
You might see several blocks mined in a row in a few minutes but in another time none for an hour.

Height    Age    Transactions    Total Sent    Relayed By    Size (kB)
346427    29 minutes    46    1,773.59 BTC    BTC Guild    21.74
346426    29 minutes    217    607.58 BTC    F2Pool    119.97
346425    32 minutes    772    6,959.44 BTC    BTC Guild    416.73
346424    46 minutes    320    1,659.23 BTC    F2Pool    155.84
346423    51 minutes    1010    8,987.83 BTC    F2Pool    507.12
346422    1 hour 10 minutes    614    6,597.82 BTC    KnCMiner    417.55

Spjuth

newbie

Activity: 55

Merit: 0

I was wondering about waiting time for blocks. Is the probability of finding a new block always the same, like the probability of rolling a six on a dice does not change no matter how many sixes you have rolled in a row, or does it decrease because the search space of the problem exhausts?

Ex: I go to blockchain.info and see that the last block was created 60min ago. I think "oh, how unlucky the miners have been, but that's good, then they should find a new block any second now."
Is that correct, or should I expect the average time until a new block is 10min no matter how long ago the last block was created?

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