in theory halving is a 50% reduction in reward from mining results. and mining is increasingly difficult. by looking at economic theory. that every scarcity of goods will make prices go up. so that possibility also applies with bitcoin. the more difficult bitcoin is to mine and get. then the price will go up. I hope the bubble will occur again in 2020 after halving.
The halving is only going to affect the future rewards and not the number of coins that already exist, what is decreasing is not the supply of bitcoin but the rate at which bitcoin is created, as time passes bitcoin halvings are going to be less influential as we are getting closer to the maximum supply, so what we need in order to drive the price of bitcoin up is demand which is precisely what we are lacking and that I do not know if we are going to get enough of it during 2020 to see that bubble coming again to the market. 
Topic: Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble? (Read 539 times)
in theory halving is a 50% reduction in reward from mining results.
It's not theory, it's a fact. This is not the first halving, we had one 2012, then 2016 and next year we will have Bitcoin halving again. It's a 50% reduction for the miners and every time halving was the catalyst for the market to rise. Bitcoin will rise, and Bitcoin will pull some altcoins too, it's happened before, and it will happen again.
in theory halving is a 50% reduction in reward from mining results. and mining is increasingly difficult. by looking at economic theory. that every scarcity of goods will make prices go up. so that possibility also applies with bitcoin. the more difficult bitcoin is to mine and get. then the price will go up. I hope the bubble will occur again in 2020 after halving.
We dont need a bubble which i would much prefer if we would able to see an organic gradual growth in price yet we've known on what would happen to see a bubble like movement when it tends to pop out.Its better to have slow pace rise but well neither way, price of btc is always been volatile it can jump up and dumped down in a short span of time.Halving event to be a catalyst? Theres no brainer for that.
We all know that the supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million and all these halving are predetermined event which everyone actually expected and I can't see this could drive the price up somehow. But, it could indeed become a catalyst aswell as a method to spread out news regarding bitcoin and giving impression that bitcoin is becoming scarce which could probably indirectly affect the whole market perception regarding the current market trend but that's it and nothing more, forget about bubble because it's not going to happen anytime soon but, just my opinion tho.
I guess my perspective is that the reason for the price increase after a halving is more due to the mining difficulty and scarcity. You may be right about the bubble but it’s not just Bitcoin that experiences bubbles. All markets have them at some point.
in theory halving is a 50% reduction in reward from mining results. and mining is increasingly difficult. by looking at economic theory. that every scarcity of goods will make prices go up. so that possibility also applies with bitcoin. the more difficult bitcoin is to mine and get. then the price will go up. I hope the bubble will occur again in 2020 after halving.
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We all know that the supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million and all these halving are predetermined event which everyone actually expected and I can't see this could drive the price up somehow. But, it could indeed become a catalyst aswell as a method to spread out news regarding bitcoin and giving impression that bitcoin is becoming scarce which could probably indirectly affect the whole market perception regarding the current market trend but that's it and nothing more, forget about bubble because it's not going to happen anytime soon but, just my opinion tho.
I am pretty sure that the BTC miners are more hodl'er than miners who mine coins such as ETH. Most BTC miners are probably large corps that can have periods of drawdown and they are able to hold their coins and wait for a bull market to sell. If they were in the business for years they got good capital to pay for electricity costs and what-not. So even though the daily miner reward for BTC is something like $12 million, I am sure most of those aren't instantely dumped on the market.
The ETH market is different. Its more home oritented miners who are still paying off their GPUs and need to pay for their electricity. So I am assuming that there are many miners who just sell at market price without hodling because they can't wait for the market conditions to improve. As long as they sell at a profit I guess they don't really care.
So who knows if the BTC halving will have a huge effect on price, price is already magnitudes higher than the previous 2 halvings.
The ETH market is different. Its more home oritented miners who are still paying off their GPUs and need to pay for their electricity. So I am assuming that there are many miners who just sell at market price without hodling because they can't wait for the market conditions to improve. As long as they sell at a profit I guess they don't really care.
So who knows if the BTC halving will have a huge effect on price, price is already magnitudes higher than the previous 2 halvings.
I'm thinking maybe the decrease that we are seeing right now is due to the halving that is coming. After the halving there will still be another decrease and that's for sure, but the question is when will the bull run be, is it going to be after the halving or before the halving?
I have seen a lot of price predictions by experts, some of them claimed that there will be an increase this year and this year is coming to an end and the price is still down to $7000 plus and still showing signs of decreasing. Halving is still far though, around May 2020, so does that mean there is a chance that bull run will take place before the halving? Maybe the price will go up and after the halving it will go down again. Best thing is just to keep on holding, if you can.
While we all know that the market doesn't behave in the exact same way, during the last halving the price did not go up immediately, it took months for the price to begin to go up and it took more than one year to see the bull market that everyone was expecting and now that there is a bearish sentiment it is possible that the price will keep going down during the next months and that the halving is only going to stop that tendency only for one year later the bull market could appear. I have seen a lot of price predictions by experts, some of them claimed that there will be an increase this year and this year is coming to an end and the price is still down to $7000 plus and still showing signs of decreasing. Halving is still far though, around May 2020, so does that mean there is a chance that bull run will take place before the halving? Maybe the price will go up and after the halving it will go down again. Best thing is just to keep on holding, if you can.
I don’t call it a bubble. Bubbles pop & don’t inflate again. After each halving supply is lessened & the price goes up as a result. It’s a natural increase in price with a high top & then a correction.
Bitcoin has never been a bubble.
Bitcoin has never been a bubble.
I'm thinking maybe the decrease that we are seeing right now is due to the halving that is coming. After the halving there will still be another decrease and that's for sure, but the question is when will the bull run be, is it going to be after the halving or before the halving?
I have seen a lot of price predictions by experts, some of them claimed that there will be an increase this year and this year is coming to an end and the price is still down to $7000 plus and still showing signs of decreasing. Halving is still far though, around May 2020, so does that mean there is a chance that bull run will take place before the halving? Maybe the price will go up and after the halving it will go down again. Best thing is just to keep on holding, if you can.
I have seen a lot of price predictions by experts, some of them claimed that there will be an increase this year and this year is coming to an end and the price is still down to $7000 plus and still showing signs of decreasing. Halving is still far though, around May 2020, so does that mean there is a chance that bull run will take place before the halving? Maybe the price will go up and after the halving it will go down again. Best thing is just to keep on holding, if you can.
I actually don't think that a bubble will form as a result of the halving this time round.
It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.
So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.
It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.
So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.
You may be correct but either way we know that cutting the mining reward in half has to have some kind of affect. It’s just interesting that the bubbles/crashes historically seem to happen every 4 years.
Any speculation regarding to that matter is not accurate but we can ride the fact that there something good will be happen once the halving effect will be occur and base to those histories it shows that we can get a positive insights on what will happen on future so maybe the best thing to do for now is to follow the market trend updates and see if we can see a good things in the presence of that season.
And for sure everyone will sell there hodl coins at that time since there are many people bagholds and wait for the opportunity to come up with there losses for the pass bear market streak.
I actually don't think that a bubble will form as a result of the halving this time round.
It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.
So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.
It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.
So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.
You may be correct but either way we know that cutting the mining reward in half has to have some kind of affect. It’s just interesting that the bubbles/crashes historically seem to happen every 4 years.
I actually don't think that a bubble will form as a result of the halving this time round.
It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.
So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.
It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.
So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.
You may be correct but either way we know that cutting the mining reward in half has to have some kind of affect. It’s just interesting that the bubbles/crashes historically seem to happen every 4 years.
Personally I don't believe that price bubble will happen after halving or that halving will bring some bigger changes in the market. Many expect to see big price pump but I don't think this will happen. Price will not rise fast and in bigger range, I expect more moderate prise rise.
Price bubble or the large scale growth will happen without doubt, but when this will happen is the question. With the past halving the growth got initiated months later to halving. The growth that took after months is very big, and to the days close to halving there is growth which is the beginning for a much higher price same as that we experienced with the 2017 market growth. Moderate price increase will continue to be the same as now, but the halving truly creates some value rise through its demand to limited availability. Even here manipulation happens, but that won't cause a big impact over the market. 
Personally I don't believe that price bubble will happen after halving or that halving will bring some bigger changes in the market. Many expect to see big price pump but I don't think this will happen. Price will not rise fast and in bigger range, I expect more moderate prise rise.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
So far all the past halving did not disappoint us, we have arrive at the best price in 2017 and we are still in a good price as of this writing, we are better, than 7 years ago, this 2020 halving will bring good results in the price because only 900 Bitcoin will be mined after this half of what is mining today until 2024, if we are good after the 2016 we re going to be better 2010 onwards.
25/05/2020 ---- May 2024 ----- 6.25 Btc for block ------- 900 Btc every day
Look at the graph of halving and at the graph of price on the same timeframes, it will become even more obvious that they do have a connection.
I actually don't think that a bubble will form as a result of the halving this time round.
It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.
So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.
It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.
So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
this is exactly what i said and analyzed here, the incident has happened a second time, we all think and hope it will happen for the third time, since 2014 the price of bitcoin is destroyed i have no hope and will not believe that it will again grow, it turns out what I'm afraid all of that happened again bubbles came in 2017, like dejavuHalving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
sorry I repeat the words below
2012 - Bitcoin halving
2013 - go to the moon
2014 - hacking problem from MTGOX and others
2015 - Bitcoin prices wake up from the downturn
2016 - Bitcoin halving
2017 - go to the moon
2018 - the bitcoin problem is usually about HACK
2019 - Bitcoin prices wake up from the downturn
2020 - Bitcoin halving
2021 - try asking your grandma?
If the price will bubble again and reach 20k level then expect a dump from people who bought at ATH.
If you are hoping to see another 20k rise then stock up on bitcoin at this stage to be ready to sell at that level. But doubts are there about such rise because in 2017 there were a number of reasons why the market rose like that, the BTC forking, the tether manipulation which fueled the price to rise a lot.These things are not happening twice so probability of a huge pump is low.
Imagine mining reward as a cost to run Bitcoin. When cost halve then yes value of Bitcoin is to increase. It is simple as that.
Things dont always go as per the dictum. What about the miners who are more interested in the slow selling of bitcoins to balance their ROI and keep a bigger stash in lockup for future selling?
Comparing on when prices starts to pump after halving. We could afford to say that we might wait a year after the halving though as prices or the demand itself starts to allocate. Though we aren't sure that it is particularly the main reason of bull run but because it did happenend in two consecutive halving then maybe it really is.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
this is exactly what i said and analyzed here, the incident has happened a second time, we all think and hope it will happen for the third time, since 2014 the price of bitcoin is destroyed i have no hope and will not believe that it will again grow, it turns out what I'm afraid all of that happened again bubbles came in 2017, like dejavuHalving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
sorry I repeat the words below
2012 - Bitcoin halving
2013 - go to the moon
2014 - hacking problem from MTGOX and others
2015 - Bitcoin prices wake up from the downturn
2016 - Bitcoin halving
2017 - go to the moon
2018 - the bitcoin problem is usually about HACK
2019 - Bitcoin prices wake up from the downturn
2020 - Bitcoin halving
2021 - try asking your grandma?
I have to think there is indeed some kind of correlation, even tho I think that an event as predictable as a halving *should* be incorporated into the price well before it happens, but I just don't know if that's the case. I thought the same thing last time and the price rose afterward.
The idea that events can be "priced in" at all is a fallacy. Markets aren't that predictable.
Price kept rising post-halving because of supply and demand. That's an annoying answer I know, but let's just say supply and demand is a lot more complex than halvings. A halving is just one variable in an endless sea of variables that determine the price.
Absolutely agreed.
If markets were completely rational then every event should be priced in - and there would be no short term volatility whatsoever due to foreseeable events.
I expect the halving next year to have a similar psychological effect on investors as it did 2017, albeit on a much smaller scale. We are unlikely to see 4 digit percentage levels of growth again due to the expansion in market cap, but psychologically, there is still significance.
I have to think there is indeed some kind of correlation, even tho I think that an event as predictable as a halving *should* be incorporated into the price well before it happens, but I just don't know if that's the case. I thought the same thing last time and the price rose afterward.
The idea that events can be "priced in" at all is a fallacy. Markets aren't that predictable.
Price kept rising post-halving because of supply and demand. That's an annoying answer I know, but let's just say supply and demand is a lot more complex than halvings. A halving is just one variable in an endless sea of variables that determine the price.
Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?
Imagine mining reward as a cost to run Bitcoin. When cost halve then yes value of Bitcoin is to increase. It is simple as that.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
That is such a vague interpretation of a correlation between halving and the price rise. What I have noticed is that the price doesn't get affected much because of the halving. Moreover, if you look at the past trend, bitcoin wasn't that popular or known enough when last halving took place. The popularity and following took pace in 2017 and 2020 halving will be the first after that. Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
Bitcoin has gone mainstream meanwhile and now the effect of halving will be vastly different from the last halvings we had.
Could it be? Sure. Will it be? We don't know.
The reality is most of the time people knows whats going to happen and shape their positions accordingly way before something happens but when that thing happens depending on what happens things change.
For example, everyone knew about the BAKKT and price changed accordingly way before but when BAKKT happened itself people realized its not as high as they expected so the price fell a lot.
Now, we do have the halving but that doesn't mean what people think will happen gonna happen for sure, maybe people will be disappointed by what happens and they won't buy and the price will fall, maybe exactly what they expect will happen and the price will go up. Without halving happens and people react we will never know what will happen.
The reality is most of the time people knows whats going to happen and shape their positions accordingly way before something happens but when that thing happens depending on what happens things change.
For example, everyone knew about the BAKKT and price changed accordingly way before but when BAKKT happened itself people realized its not as high as they expected so the price fell a lot.
Now, we do have the halving but that doesn't mean what people think will happen gonna happen for sure, maybe people will be disappointed by what happens and they won't buy and the price will fall, maybe exactly what they expect will happen and the price will go up. Without halving happens and people react we will never know what will happen.
If you guys want to go deep for this discussion, I would recommend stock-to-flow thread by fillippone. You can also read my comment about:
- construct formulation;
- sampling;
- model fit;
- forecasting.
Basically, I know that historically, halvings were the catalyst for positive price movements. However, the proofs aren't sufficient enough to say that the next halvings will be the same. That's because some of the dynamics (or assumptions) continually change in the real world.
- construct formulation;
- sampling;
- model fit;
- forecasting.
Basically, I know that historically, halvings were the catalyst for positive price movements. However, the proofs aren't sufficient enough to say that the next halvings will be the same. That's because some of the dynamics (or assumptions) continually change in the real world.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
this is exactly what i said and analyzed here, the incident has happened a second time, we all think and hope it will happen for the third time, since 2014 the price of bitcoin is destroyed i have no hope and will not believe that it will again grow, it turns out what I'm afraid all of that happened again bubbles came in 2017, like dejavuHalving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
sorry I repeat the words below
2012 - Bitcoin halving
2013 - go to the moon
2014 - hacking problem from MTGOX and others
2015 - Bitcoin prices wake up from the downturn
2016 - Bitcoin halving
2017 - go to the moon
2018 - the bitcoin problem is usually about HACK
2019 - Bitcoin prices wake up from the downturn
2020 - Bitcoin halving
2021 - try asking your grandma?
Its a lot of maybe’s, we really can’t guarantee the future results will behave like from the past. I don’t really get to excited about the upcoming events rather I tend to be more cautious. If the price will bubble again and reach 20k level then expect a dump from people who bought at ATH.
I agree with you OP. i think bitcoin has the same pattern i'm also sure after bitcoin halves in 2020 then 1 or 1.5 years later bitcoin will be bullish and can reach a new ATH. in 2017 the highest price of bitcoin is $ 20,000, maybe in 2021 the price of bitcoin can reach $ 50,000. all bitcoin holders certainly hope this will happen. we just need to be patient and wait.
Good analysis.
I never went that far ahead into looking at the history of halving for a year or beyond it.
I just looked at months after it.
I guess you might be right. But, there could be changes.
The number of people trying to buy bitcoin is growing, it may be slow but it is still growing.
So if the my calculation will be right it could be earlier this year.
The price pump might happen soon even before the halving happens.
The hype is too much now and the social media announcements are at large.
It may not be the same thing as what happened the last 8 years.
I never went that far ahead into looking at the history of halving for a year or beyond it.
I just looked at months after it.
I guess you might be right. But, there could be changes.
The number of people trying to buy bitcoin is growing, it may be slow but it is still growing.
So if the my calculation will be right it could be earlier this year.
The price pump might happen soon even before the halving happens.
The hype is too much now and the social media announcements are at large.
It may not be the same thing as what happened the last 8 years.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
Let me put forth a few more questions so that you get even more confused.Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
As per bitcoin's history, we can notice that whenever bitcoin halving occurs the price of bitcoin spikes up followed by a dump.
Don't you think that if people already know that the price will spike up then they will be ready to grab this opportunity and would have already bought their bitcoins in advance and will definitely be read to sell to cover up their losses from the previous bubble pop.
Analytically, I have still not been able to relate the halving of bitcoin to its price surge because it seem that there is no much correlation as the halving is actually meant to be a rewarding system for the miners, but the reason why there will be a slight improvement on the value of bitcoin during the halving is simply because many people have already developed that mentality because of the past experience as we have seen that halving literally affect the value of bitcoin positively.
But from my own understanding, I think the only thing I could relate to that is that many people tend to start investing in bitcoin because of this believe and thereby causing the demand for bitcoin and as the demand increases, so as the value of bitcoin will also increase too.
But from my own understanding, I think the only thing I could relate to that is that many people tend to start investing in bitcoin because of this believe and thereby causing the demand for bitcoin and as the demand increases, so as the value of bitcoin will also increase too.
The halving makes the block reward smaller for miners which means that they earn fewer Bitcoins for mining. Therefore there are fewer Bitcoins being mined which increases scarcity. I think this is what will drive the price up.
Analytically, I have still not been able to relate the halving of bitcoin to its price surge because it seem that there is no much correlation as the halving is actually meant to be a rewarding system for the miners, but the reason why there will be a slight improvement on the value of bitcoin during the halving is simply because many people have already developed that mentality because of the past experience as we have seen that halving literally affect the value of bitcoin positively.
But from my own understanding, I think the only thing I could relate to that is that many people tend to start investing in bitcoin because of this believe and thereby causing the demand for bitcoin and as the demand increases, so as the value of bitcoin will also increase too.
But from my own understanding, I think the only thing I could relate to that is that many people tend to start investing in bitcoin because of this believe and thereby causing the demand for bitcoin and as the demand increases, so as the value of bitcoin will also increase too.
Bitcoin is at its infancy stage, which means that there is still room for improvement which I am currently eager to see. At its early stages, Bitcoin holds only a tiny fraction of the markets it stands to disrupt, which reaches into trillions of dollars. If Bitcoin becomes massively adopted due to its growing popularity, then investing in it will have been the best decision of my trading venture. Halving is one of the reasons why i believe bitcoin will bring because of the scarcity and the number of bitcoins minted everyday will decrease.
This may be the rule of the market, sharks want to lower the price of Bitcoin after hugging a large amount of them they start pushing the price up. A lot of investors have fallen into FOMO, I think no more than 2021 Bitcoin price will explode yet again.
The common view is that with each halving the mining reward decreases. This should reduce the average volume dumped by miners on the markets which cause a constant dump in the value and prevent bulls from catching up. However this statement also takes it for granted that miners are dumping which may not be correct in all cases. They have dumped coins when prices were pretty low - a desperate attempt to cover their ROI and continue mining.
But with the current price even miners would want to save up on selling. Again the opposite could also be true because hte price is high it is a good time to sell for those miners who have been storing coins since 2010, if any exist.
Its more correct to think this as a placebo effect. People think the price will go up and thus buy. So the price goes up because of this buying and not halving directly.
But with the current price even miners would want to save up on selling. Again the opposite could also be true because hte price is high it is a good time to sell for those miners who have been storing coins since 2010, if any exist.
Its more correct to think this as a placebo effect. People think the price will go up and thus buy. So the price goes up because of this buying and not halving directly.
Yeah i'm aggree the people are attached to placebo effects and the price is must be rise because of the people demand. I think the real value of the coins is impossible to measure because the bitcoin's price is always be determined by people demand even if it can be said bitcoin has no function in their lives, but if it's demand still high the price will be high.
The common view is that with each halving the mining reward decreases. This should reduce the average volume dumped by miners on the markets which cause a constant dump in the value and prevent bulls from catching up. However this statement also takes it for granted that miners are dumping which may not be correct in all cases. They have dumped coins when prices were pretty low - a desperate attempt to cover their ROI and continue mining.
But with the current price even miners would want to save up on selling. Again the opposite could also be true because the price is high it is a good time to sell for those miners who have been storing coins since 2010, if any exist.
Its more correct to think this as a placebo effect. People think the price will go up and thus buy. So the price goes up because of this buying and not halving directly.
But with the current price even miners would want to save up on selling. Again the opposite could also be true because the price is high it is a good time to sell for those miners who have been storing coins since 2010, if any exist.
Its more correct to think this as a placebo effect. People think the price will go up and thus buy. So the price goes up because of this buying and not halving directly.
I have to think there is indeed some kind of correlation, even tho I think that an event as predictable as a halving *should* be incorporated into the price well before it happens, but I just don't know if that's the case. I thought the same thing last time and the price rose afterward.
It's strange, because halvings don't really affect the scarcity of bitcoin at all, just the growth rate of new coins and since the total number is fixed and known to begin with, there doesn't seem to be a rational reason why there should be a price boost as a result of a halving. Yet it happened and could happen again. It *is* possible that investors expect such, so they start buying bitcoin in anticipation thereby driving up the price, and if that's the cause it doesn't have anything to do with mining difficulty or anything like that. It would be pure speculation causing the increase.
Should be interesting to see what happens next year. I'm hodling onto the little btc I have just in case.
It's strange, because halvings don't really affect the scarcity of bitcoin at all, just the growth rate of new coins and since the total number is fixed and known to begin with, there doesn't seem to be a rational reason why there should be a price boost as a result of a halving. Yet it happened and could happen again. It *is* possible that investors expect such, so they start buying bitcoin in anticipation thereby driving up the price, and if that's the cause it doesn't have anything to do with mining difficulty or anything like that. It would be pure speculation causing the increase.
Should be interesting to see what happens next year. I'm hodling onto the little btc I have just in case.
I also have the same view as you,
that is why halving bitcoin is highly anticipated for all investors, because the determination of the price of BITCOIN will experience a bubble or not is the year 2020 when Bitcoin has halving.
if after halving the price of bitcoin rises very high, it is possible that the events of 2013 and 2017 will occur in 2021
that is why halving bitcoin is highly anticipated for all investors, because the determination of the price of BITCOIN will experience a bubble or not is the year 2020 when Bitcoin has halving.
if after halving the price of bitcoin rises very high, it is possible that the events of 2013 and 2017 will occur in 2021
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation?
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation?
I think the data speaks for itself. The halvings haven't been a catalyst for anything except a short term selloff. Buy the rumor and sell the news, as they say.
The halvings took place during bull markets but the parabolic bubbles happened at the end of those bull markets. Based on the last two go rounds, things won't get interesting until late 2020 or the following year.
All of us here are just speculating and from what most of us observed here, halving is really one of the catalyst to the past bubbles. We just can't predict when that bubblr would burst, but definitely it would cause price pumps. This would only be true if bitcoin's market demand would not diminish and sustain its current levels, because if not, then halving might have only little to no effect in the prices.
It could be but the previous halvings needed time to ignite. If you check the exact times of halvings the price was pretty low right before they hit.
If the story repeats itself we won't see a bull run until Summer or Autumn 2020. I'd like us to at least stay at 50% of ATH until then but we can't even hold 9k.
If the story repeats itself we won't see a bull run until Summer or Autumn 2020. I'd like us to at least stay at 50% of ATH until then but we can't even hold 9k.
This is what i've always thinking of, 1 year after bitcoin halving bitcoin price will boom, but why before the halving people are not realizing it yet ? The supply is less and the difficulty is doubled harder than before but people are still ignoring the price of bitcoin right now, and one year after halving people are realizing bitcoin is a rare thing they will buy it for a high price while when the price is low just right now they're not buying it
This is a human factor not to always put their interest in what they can see within their reach until it is scarce.
Anyways, on the halving. It will not be a catalyst for the increase perse. The adoption is obvious in our eyes because bitcoin itself has proved the bubble theorists wrong for still subsisting till now.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
I believe that will happen again. It was one of the big events that anyone expected. we will see another big growth take place in 2020.Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
like other years or maybe much higher because bitcoin's capitalization has been reduced too much in recent years.
We should buy and hold it from now on, it is likely that your account will be x2 by Q2 of 2020.
Look at litecoin as an example of why it is not because will have halving that the price will increase to infinity. We need a lot of constant demand, this is what can greatly increase the price. And don't believe these $55000 or $100,000 price forecasts for next year
in my opinion the bubble of 2017 was because of ICOs, hard forks and Futures
People should really remove that kind of mindset.Yes, we can speculate but we should not come to a point where we do speculate very difficult to predict the exact period for the bubble.
in my opinion the bubble of 2017 was because of ICOs, hard forks and Futures
the unrealistic ones.Demand is the key and if we do see that on next btc halving plus lessening its block reward then we can see
significant changes in price but as said its better to expect for another bull run because it wont happen on big chances.
I’m just pointing out the potential for an exponential increase which is good information to have for traders. It’s potentially an opportunity to make money.
Yes it does,and also this is why people prefer holding more than trading which somewhat give same benefits in long term but with different risk levels and effort needed to achieve it.Like said earlier the bitcoin halving will act as more than a catalyst like it gives assurance on price increase a while later of bitcoin halving,Bitcoin halve is going to be in mid 20200 and the potential increase on the price expected in later 2020 or in beginning of 2021. 
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
This is what i've always thinking of, 1 year after bitcoin halving bitcoin price will boom, but why before the halving people are not realizing it yet ? The supply is less and the difficulty is doubled harder than before but people are still ignoring the price of bitcoin right now, and one year after halving people are realizing bitcoin is a rare thing they will buy it for a high price while when the price is low just right now they're not buying it
Look at litecoin as an example of why it is not because will have halving that the price will increase to infinity. We need a lot of constant demand, this is what can greatly increase the price. And don't believe these $55000 or $100,000 price forecasts for next year
in my opinion the bubble of 2017 was because of ICOs, hard forks and Futures
very difficult to predict the exact period for the bubble.
in my opinion the bubble of 2017 was because of ICOs, hard forks and Futures
I think it will be, we are already seeing record exchange sign-ups on Asian exchanges like Binance and ecxx
Analyst had always opinionated that price history repeat itself based on two instances about halving of bitcoin mentioned by the OP its obvious the same scenario is going to repeat itself come next year however the bubble might not be instant, this case of the pumping of the price of bitcoin after halving is more of fundamental thus might defies technical analysis based from own point of view thus very difficult to predict the exact period for the bubble.
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
...I prefer on seeing a Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
good stable gradual increase rather than short sharp spikes because we know on where it would comes next.
That depends on whether you are a trader ore a HODLer. If you just want to hold, then a steady increase is good but if you are a trader, you want some volatility to give you buying and selling opportunities.
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
No precise thing such as a guaranteed correlation on each price it might able to take.We've seen some numbers in previous 2 halvings but it doesn't mean Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
that it will happen guarantedly on the 3rd one or this upcoming halving.Also I don't really like to have that bubble thing but rather I prefer on seeing a
good stable gradual increase rather than short sharp spikes because we know on where it would comes next.
Everyone is waiting for the halving because it could bring the price to next level from the previous cycle,yeah can be called as catalyst as well for the bullish price trend to begin.But don't say the bubble pops after a year,if its bubble then it won't get reshaped so just call it as bearish market,which happens when people think this is time to cash out their profits.
For what it’s worth, when I say “bubble”, I don’t necessarily consider that a bad thing. As we know from the price history of Bitcoin, even with the crashes after a bubble, the price always recovers to reach new highs.
I’m just pointing out the potential for an exponential increase which is good information to have for traders. It’s potentially an opportunity to make money.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
This is what i've always thinking of, 1 year after bitcoin halving bitcoin price will boom, but why before the halving people are not realizing it yet ? The supply is less and the difficulty is doubled harder than before but people are still ignoring the price of bitcoin right now, and one year after halving people are realizing bitcoin is a rare thing they will buy it for a high price while when the price is low just right now they're not buying it
Everyone is waiting for the halving because it could bring the price to next level from the previous cycle,yeah can be called as catalyst as well for the bullish price trend to begin.But don't say the bubble pops after a year,if its bubble then it won't get reshaped so just call it as bearish market,which happens when people think this is time to cash out their profits.
My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)
Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)
Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops? If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?
Please share your thoughts
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