What is the point at which we can say that this model has become "broken" and unreliable in the future?
I think we should never expect a model to predict the exact future, but it can be nice to visualize things, start discussion or get ideas and orientation across. Math cant predict politics, manipulation or human decision making
If we are above 50k, then we can say that the model is working as the assumption of reaching 100k would have been logical if we continued in the region of 40k to 70k, but what is happening now (if we consider it the bottom) then the maximum ATH during the next four years will be About 150k which is far away from the model.
I doubt that it is even close to impossible to get a 3x to 8x BTC price rise from here within the next 3 to 30 months.
The model was working fine until last November, but even before the Ukrainian crisis it was difficult to reach the levels of 100k, we hope that all these events are due to political factors and abnormal conditions and that we will return again soon.
From my perspective, you seem to want to focus on various ways that bitcoin supposedly failed to reach expectations that involve bitcoin price limitations as if bitcoin falls into some kind of mature asset category or that it is an asset that is similar to other asset classes and controlled my macro/monetary policies like stocks tend to have that kind of correlation, and I am not completely opposed to appreciating that we can see those kinds of ideas of limits in bitcoin's recent historical performance and that in the short term those dynamics might continue... but I also consider that we need to be careful in terms of making these kinds of under appreciation of bitcoin.
In other words, bitcoin continues to be in both a new category of a paradigm shifting technology that melds the ability to communicate through the internet and attach value to that transmission (or storage if you don't want to send it to anyone), and holy shit that is powerful while at the same time ONLY less than the 1% of the world's monetary value and/or participation is within this rock the world system.. the upside remains explosive potential, even if it might not happen and we cannot exactly tell when, either.
You can look at various points in bitcoin's history and it is swimming along fairly smoothly with other various assets and then it does a shift upwards at various points too.. and then it then becomes correlated with other assets, but instead it is on another curve that is 3x higher or 10x higher than whatever prices that it had been previously... I get a sense we are going to continue to see those kinds of upwards shifts up in bitcoin.. without really knowing when they are going to happen but when they do, we can no longer get bitcoin at the earlier prices... it is like being in the s-curve adoption, but not really seeing or being able to appreciate that we are within that.
Don't get me wrong.. on a personal financial preparation level I do not want to presume too much.. so I attempt to prepare for either up or down BTC prices.. and even maintain fairly conservative projections of ongoing BTC price expectations.. while at the same time accounting for those explosive upside possibilities that might only be 0.5% to 5% scenarios.. but they remain part of the expected value formulation that might not change preparations in any kind of meaningful way - except just to avoid selling too much too soon.
The various upside scenario considerations do not suddenly go from let's say 25% to zero merely because we had some corrections that went down further than we thought to be possible.. but there still might be a need to tweak the projected numbers downward from 25% to 10% or some other reasonable adjustment that attempts to account what is really going on rather than just getting caught up in a few short term factors that might not be as long-term powerful as they are being proclaimed to be.
Each of us has to figure out our own calculations and whether we want to give any odds at all to certain kinds of upside or downside scenarios.. and personally, I believe that it is quite unrealistic to be ruling out some of the various upside scenarios merely because 1) negative things have recently happened in the world, 2) momentum is not looking good, 3) there are threats that more negative things are going to continue to happen. . blah blah blah , even if some of the better upside scenarios need to be downgraded from their previous modestly high expectations
** to lower values.. but those previously modestly high expectations still likely do not need to be downgraded to zero..
**you can characterize your previous assessments as "high expectations" or "overly high expectations" if believe that you had made errors in that direction but I am not going to attribute possible errors of others because I feel that I have a tendency to come to my own assessments that are not overly-influenced merely based on market sentiment or what other people think blah blah blah. I continue to consider myself as arriving at my own assessments of expectations and engaging in my own reasonable assessments of what I believe is likely to happen (or not).. even if sometimes there can be some contagion that gets into my numbers, too. feels right to you.. Of course, you have the right to Monday quarter-back your own ways of assessing probabilities and/or the ways that others assign probabilities (including making of models), and sure each of us are going to have some of our own inclinations, and
from this linked post, you can see some of my own ways of making btc price projections and how I assign prediction values... and for sure I have some influence from both stock to flow and the ideas of exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.
Whether you agree with my ways of assigning BTC price prediction values, you can see that I had not updated my upside projections since December 16, 2021, and I ONLY scribbled out my downside projections on May 19, 2022.. and sure it seems that my BTC prices projections in both directions need updating to account for more recent happenings, I give less than two shits if anyone else considers my BTC price prediction assignment of probabilities have good predictive value or that I am changing in my assessment too often in order to account for changes in what has happened since my last update...
At the time that I write out my predictive assignment of values, I am trying to best assess my own sense at that particular snapshot time, and those probability assignment charts should give some ideas about how I think about making my own formulations of more and less likely scenarios. .including attempting to account for extremes, even if the extremes are assigned low probabilities.. so for example, even in December 16, 2021, I had considered supra $1.5 million to have 0.5% odds with 99% odds that the peak for the cycle playing out before the 2nd quarter of 2023. Since about mid-May 2022, when the BTC price fell below the 100-week moving average, I concluded that we had fallen out of the bull market so the timeline for the upside were mostly negated as of mid-May 2020. So in that regard, my projections serve as snapshots of then thinking but still provides some ideas of methodology and how much value to place on various extremes.. including but not limited to placing zero probabilities towards extremes.
