Is the halving already priced in? | Bitcointalksearch.org

Abiky

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on April 24, 2024, 11:34:55 AM

I've always hinted at this in all related posts, it is a serious consideration and we should be very careful due to that. Not that we are perfect in our view but cautious for a possibility that what happened in the last 8 months could have affected the post-having effect of this season which is always believed to be greeted with a huge bull run. But since Bitcoin had even hit above the former ATH before this year's halving, I seriously doubt what could become of it this time going forward. It might be a situation where it will disappoint us all or a situation where the bullish effect will not be as much as people expected.

This should have been ascertained in the next 1 year from now, and if Bitcoin cannot breach the new ATH which is around $73,850, it will be a serious problem for the coin to move higher. However, it has nothing to lose as a good coin since I am sure it might preserve itself above the psychological level of $50,000. Doing that alone means that it has achieved a lot already. However, a breach of $73,850 could send it easily to $75,000 and above in a matter of days.

For all I know, this halving period is different from the rest. Spot ETFs were approved before the "big event", triggering a massive "pump" on BTC's market price. I'm yet to see if the market will remain bullish during the remainder of the year. While BTC did reach a new ATH, it's still far from the projected $100k - $150k market price. Within 1-2 years from now, it's hoped the market will turn bearish. I mean if history repeats itself again.

You should always pay attention to the market to determine when it's the right time to buy and when it's the right time to sell. Buy low, sell high. The crypto market behaves in many strange and bizarre ways, so expect the unexpected.

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Quote from: adultcrypto on April 24, 2024, 04:55:50 PM

Quote from: Dave1 on April 24, 2024, 04:40:56 PM

Quote from: el kaka22 on April 24, 2024, 10:00:32 AM

Not even close, we are not even pricing in the halving at all, we are nowhere near that level yet. I am 100% sure that we will be on the road to 100k this year, before the year ends, either we are going to reach 100k this year, around the end of it, or we are going to reach it by the start of next year. I am sure that it is going to be pretty good, and we are going to end up with something that can benefit us for sure.

It is just that we need to make sure that we are not making any mistakes, sometimes there are some news and people react to that news and sell, then they make a big mistake, but because they sold, the market drops as well and their mistake ends up hurting us as well, we should try to avoid that as much as possible.

Yeah, as a investor and been in the market for many years, we all know that halving price is not price in. It's that there is some emergence of new pattern like establishing a new ATH before the halving.

But at the grand scheme of things, we will see 6 digits at the end of the year. If not, then it could be early 2025 and then new all time high. This has been the cycle and it will still continue despite seeing for the first time that we have reach it before the halving.

It is good to see such optimism and I also share in this line of thought. Now it might seems like nothing is happening but towards the end of this year, when the effect of the halving will be obvious in the market, the price will likely begin to rise rapidly. The reduction in the mining reward will create the needed deficit to make this come to reality. At the moment, nothing much have changed because the halving just happened. Many people will be caught unawares in the coming bull run especially those who might be thinking that as we did not immediately see big moves in the market after the halving that the hype and excitement have gone. The market will respond to them in a way that they might end up regretting not trusting and holding tight.

This is what I've been waiting for. Many newbies and some veteran investors are making this mistake, most assuming that we will have a crazy bull season right after the halving is complete. But in the end, it won't happen and they will become frustrated, discouraged and will sell all their bitcoins at low prices because things didn't go as they expected. But when the majority has sold their bitcoins, it is also the right time to trigger the bull season, and those who have sold before will be Fomo and bought back at a higher price. That's how financial markets work, and I believe that as long as the crowd isn't complaining and isn't selling their bitcoins, there won't be a bull season.

Hypnosis00

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Quote from: Abiky on April 17, 2024, 12:47:55 PM

Quote from: rodskee on April 16, 2024, 06:49:14 AM

snipped...

In the short term? Yes. But in the long term, BTC should be able to reach a new ATH. The current dip could be attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East. Market prices will dip, but they're expected to "pump" in the long run as the world heads into uncertainty. I think the ETFs are just the tip of the iceberg. Who knows? The crypto market behaves in many strange and bizarre ways. So we should expect the unexpected.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could eventually surpass Gold in terms of market cap. Buying and holding BTC now is the best decision to make. With Fiat currencies losing ground, I'm certain things will get better for Bitcoin and the whole crypto industry. The question is: Are you ready for the huge pump? Cheesy

I really appreciate those people who positively think that Bitcoin has a better future. Not all do this and many people change their minds when drops happen. Ever since, halving and ETFs has had a huge impact on the market making every halving another achievement.

History repeats itself is what we expect and people are not crazy buying Bitcoin without such optimism. It may be hard for Bitcoin to reach $200k but we believe that there is ATH around the corner after halving.

I buy some before halving, I think that is enough for now. Those who are not buying yet may consider this before the new ATH happens.

beerlover

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Quote from: el kaka22 on April 24, 2024, 10:00:32 AM

Not even close, we are not even pricing in the halving at all, we are nowhere near that level yet. I am 100% sure that we will be on the road to 100k this year, before the year ends, either we are going to reach 100k this year, around the end of it, or we are going to reach it by the start of next year. I am sure that it is going to be pretty good, and we are going to end up with something that can benefit us for sure.

It is just that we need to make sure that we are not making any mistakes, sometimes there are some news and people react to that news and sell, then they make a big mistake, but because they sold, the market drops as well and their mistake ends up hurting us as well, we should try to avoid that as much as possible.

I do agree that people who sell based on news are making huge mistakes, sure there could be moments when they are wrong sometimes and there could be moments when they are right as well, so it is not like it is a new thing and we should probably look into that type of stuff as something important.

But, we are talking about a situation that is quite risky, it is clear that we are not going to get anything bigger than that. We could be considered as doing something nice, and that is why we need to focus on the coin itself, bitcoin is quite strong and while there could be bad news time to time, but we are not going to be getting anything better or bigger or worse in the end, just get it and hold it and you will be fine in the end.

adultcrypto

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Quote from: Dave1 on April 24, 2024, 04:40:56 PM

Quote from: el kaka22 on April 24, 2024, 10:00:32 AM

Not even close, we are not even pricing in the halving at all, we are nowhere near that level yet. I am 100% sure that we will be on the road to 100k this year, before the year ends, either we are going to reach 100k this year, around the end of it, or we are going to reach it by the start of next year. I am sure that it is going to be pretty good, and we are going to end up with something that can benefit us for sure.

It is just that we need to make sure that we are not making any mistakes, sometimes there are some news and people react to that news and sell, then they make a big mistake, but because they sold, the market drops as well and their mistake ends up hurting us as well, we should try to avoid that as much as possible.

Yeah, as a investor and been in the market for many years, we all know that halving price is not price in. It's that there is some emergence of new pattern like establishing a new ATH before the halving.

But at the grand scheme of things, we will see 6 digits at the end of the year. If not, then it could be early 2025 and then new all time high. This has been the cycle and it will still continue despite seeing for the first time that we have reach it before the halving.

It is good to see such optimism and I also share in this line of thought. Now it might seems like nothing is happening but towards the end of this year, when the effect of the halving will be obvious in the market, the price will likely begin to rise rapidly. The reduction in the mining reward will create the needed deficit to make this come to reality. At the moment, nothing much have changed because the halving just happened. Many people will be caught unawares in the coming bull run especially those who might be thinking that as we did not immediately see big moves in the market after the halving that the hype and excitement have gone. The market will respond to them in a way that they might end up regretting not trusting and holding tight.

Dave1

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Quote from: el kaka22 on April 24, 2024, 10:00:32 AM

Not even close, we are not even pricing in the halving at all, we are nowhere near that level yet. I am 100% sure that we will be on the road to 100k this year, before the year ends, either we are going to reach 100k this year, around the end of it, or we are going to reach it by the start of next year. I am sure that it is going to be pretty good, and we are going to end up with something that can benefit us for sure.

It is just that we need to make sure that we are not making any mistakes, sometimes there are some news and people react to that news and sell, then they make a big mistake, but because they sold, the market drops as well and their mistake ends up hurting us as well, we should try to avoid that as much as possible.

Yeah, as a investor and been in the market for many years, we all know that halving price is not price in. It's that there is some emergence of new pattern like establishing a new ATH before the halving.

But at the grand scheme of things, we will see 6 digits at the end of the year. If not, then it could be early 2025 and then new all time high. This has been the cycle and it will still continue despite seeing for the first time that we have reach it before the halving.

EarnOnVictor

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Quote from: Abiky on April 05, 2024, 09:11:39 PM

BTC has been "pumped" massively ever since the spot ETFs were approved in the US a few months ago. The rise has been exponential, making BTC reach a new ATH before the halving. This has never happened before in the history of crypto (AFAIK).

Considering that BTC is in a new ATH, I wonder if the halving is already priced in? If that's the case, then market prices will remain relatively the same post-halving. Don't you think?

Your input would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

I've always hinted at this in all related posts, it is a serious consideration and we should be very careful due to that. Not that we are perfect in our view but cautious for a possibility that what happened in the last 8 months could have affected the post-having effect of this season which is always believed to be greeted with a huge bull run. But since Bitcoin had even hit above the former ATH before this year's halving, I seriously doubt what could become of it this time going forward. It might be a situation where it will disappoint us all or a situation where the bullish effect will not be as much as people expected.

This should have been ascertained in the next 1 year from now, and if Bitcoin cannot breach the new ATH which is around $73,850, it will be a serious problem for the coin to move higher. However, it has nothing to lose as a good coin since I am sure it might preserve itself above the psychological level of $50,000. Doing that alone means that it has achieved a lot already. However, a breach of $73,850 could send it easily to $75,000 and above in a matter of days.

yudi09

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Quote from: KingsDen on April 23, 2024, 10:39:27 AM

Let's see it this way;
It is a fact that after halving will come bull run which will lead to the price of bitcoin attaining a new ATH;
This fact hasn't changed for the past 4 halvings and bull runs;
This time around, before the halving and the accompanying bull run, a new ATH is already attained;
What does this mean;
This should mean that the anticipated bull run will now be very massive than the previous ones. This is just a simple analogy.

I would say that the sudden increase in price to $73k which gave rise to a new ATH compared to the old ATH was indeed beyond the expectations of many speculators so it does not rule out the possibility that your simple analogy will come true. The fourth Bitcoin halving based on a 4 year cycle is marked by a price comparison reaching $10k between $63k to $73k and high fees even though congestion has occurred several times.
This means that there will be a bull run which will make prices much higher after this halving.

el kaka22

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Not even close, we are not even pricing in the halving at all, we are nowhere near that level yet. I am 100% sure that we will be on the road to 100k this year, before the year ends, either we are going to reach 100k this year, around the end of it, or we are going to reach it by the start of next year. I am sure that it is going to be pretty good, and we are going to end up with something that can benefit us for sure.

It is just that we need to make sure that we are not making any mistakes, sometimes there are some news and people react to that news and sell, then they make a big mistake, but because they sold, the market drops as well and their mistake ends up hurting us as well, we should try to avoid that as much as possible.

usekevin

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Quote from: Negotiation on April 23, 2024, 08:55:28 AM

We can expect the next bull run to work in the cryptocurrency market cycle and we will see something interesting. The point is that the next upswing in the market happened sometime after the bitcoin halving. This decrease in bitcoin supply is the catalyst for a bull market. Bitcoin prices rose after the halving although other factors may affect the market and there is no guarantee that this pattern will repeat itself. has traditionally influenced market dynamics making the halving a highly anticipated event in the cryptocurrency world.

The market was correct himself after the many bull run in the market,So it was essential for the traders to hold their bitcoin at the bear run.Because the bear run won’t affect the traders who hold their money at the bear market.Only the new traders would not ready to hold the money in the bear market,they will cash out the money and use for the personal expenses with the minimum profit.The traders should not do this trading like the gambling,he should ready to hold the money like he doesn’t have any assets.The first thing should be learn by the trader is to hold for the longer period as much it’s possible.

Quote from: Sorryfor on April 23, 2024, 12:03:06 AM

The price of Bitcoin is fairly stable right now. Which is why it can be said that Bitcoin has not yet reached its maximum ATH. It may take months to a year, it's just that no one can provide this information accurately. Bitcoin is currently valued at $66,000. A few days ago I also saw the price of Bitcoin when it was 62000 dollars. It appears that Bitcoin may have started its bull run when the price of Bitcoin reached its peak and then Bitcoin halved its value. Past history shows that there have been several previous Bitcoin halvings where the Bitcoin price peaked at ATH and then halved again. I think Bitcoin's new ATH will cross $100k this time.

The price of the bitcoin was stable now at the 60k mark,so the traders who satisfy with this price can sell their bitcoin.But the trader who doesn’t have any personal demand for money should hold the money in the bitcoin.Because we know the halves will happen through out this year.So the next halves will bring the traders with back full of dollars by just holding your money in the bitcoin.

KingsDen

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Let's see it this way;
It is a fact that after halving will come bull run which will lead to the price of bitcoin attaining a new ATH;
This fact hasn't changed for the past 4 halvings and bull runs;
This time around, before the halving and the accompanying bull run, a new ATH is already attained;
What does this mean;
This should mean that the anticipated bull run will now be very massive than the previous ones. This is just a simple analogy.

Negotiation

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We can expect the next bull run to work in the cryptocurrency market cycle and we will see something interesting. The point is that the next upswing in the market happened sometime after the bitcoin halving. This decrease in bitcoin supply is the catalyst for a bull market. Bitcoin prices rose after the halving although other factors may affect the market and there is no guarantee that this pattern will repeat itself. has traditionally influenced market dynamics making the halving a highly anticipated event in the cryptocurrency world.

Sorryfor

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The price of Bitcoin is fairly stable right now. Which is why it can be said that Bitcoin has not yet reached its maximum ATH. It may take months to a year, it's just that no one can provide this information accurately. Bitcoin is currently valued at $66,000. A few days ago I also saw the price of Bitcoin when it was 62000 dollars. It appears that Bitcoin may have started its bull run when the price of Bitcoin reached its peak and then Bitcoin halved its value. Past history shows that there have been several previous Bitcoin halvings where the Bitcoin price peaked at ATH and then halved again. I think Bitcoin's new ATH will cross $100k this time.

YUriy1991

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Quote from: uneng on April 20, 2024, 08:19:39 AM

Resistance level is hard to break at 64,000$, but Bitcoin is trying. Once it does, it will be good news towards more increasement in price. Support seems strong at 63,000$, so there is little margin for Bitcoin to play with for now (only 1000$). I see doubt and attentiveness in the air for the next steps Bitcoin is going to take. There is a feeling of unstability dominating crypto market, as many interests are at stake right now. It's an once in a life opportunity for many investors to become millionaires, and for few millionaires to become billionaires through Bitcoin.

Yes. It is very interesting to follow the Crypto market after the Halving later where this moment gives birth to a new spirit. For now, what we should do is hold and avoid short-term volatility. If it does look like a crash, take it easy, because if not, it will also affect us too, many users feel pressured and will take revenge trading actions to recover it and eventually lose everything and in my opinion, anything can happen a strong decline or reversal at this moment where Bitcoin outflows from various financial institutions are high, So, read and work wisely otherwise we don't fall in the same hole.

tiCeR

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Quote from: Abiky on April 17, 2024, 12:47:55 PM

Quote from: rodskee on April 16, 2024, 06:49:14 AM

...

In the short term? Yes. But in the long term, BTC should be able to reach a new ATH. The current dip could be attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East. Market prices will dip, but they're expected to "pump" in the long run as the world heads into uncertainty. I think the ETFs are just the tip of the iceberg. Who knows? The crypto market behaves in many strange and bizarre ways. So we should expect the unexpected.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could eventually surpass Gold in terms of market cap. Buying and holding BTC now is the best decision to make. With Fiat currencies losing ground, I'm certain things will get better for Bitcoin and the whole crypto industry. The question is: Are you ready for the huge pump? Cheesy

I would say that the pump we have seen so far since October last year was probably related to the upcoming halving and now there is some uncertainty, but the halving has had its effect already. I think any positive price movements in the future are based on more people seeing the value in BTC.

But I think that the fees are highly problematic during these times when BTC is producing some good price action. Imagine you are a newcomer and want to purchase some BTC and move it around and suddenly you realize how expensive it is to move BTC. It could scare away some people. It's definitely not very positive when interested people realize this issue. I am not sure what to expect in the coming years regarding the fees, but it has been and will probably be a big issue in the future.

Hallroom

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Bitcoin price halving has taken place in 2024, and Bitcoin price has the highest opportunity to increase after this halving. You will notice that since the Bitcoin EPF approval, the price of Bitcoin has pumped to the highest level and the halving is organized at the moment of this pumping. Due to which the price of Bitcoin has increased to the maximum and created new records.

STT

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Its always priced in because its a known quantity easily predictable but all the other factors we cant be sure on. The dollar itself is constantly changing so no price is solid known now and into the future.

Over time the reduction in supply is measured vs the unknown quantity of demand that might occur, people selling into the market itself is a large factor also which is why I mention dollar because thats such a large factor in overall market sentiment and strength or weakness vs a speculative asset like BTC.

The lows of April have been in line with the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the prior ATH so maintaining that on a closing basis is quite bullish and some time or other we are going to resolve upwards beyond the old ATH as already been seen partially. I dont believe havlening is enough to push us past before the autumn, other factors in combination might though.

uneng

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It's halving time, but... The market isn't bullish yet. I ask myself how long it's going to take until we start seeing the impact of halving in crypto market for real. Actually, it would be too predictable to have an instant impact right now, and since it didn't happen, fear and insecurity take place in the hearts of the weakest investors who tend to sell their holdings in the first difficult they find ahead. As consequence the whales buy the dip and maximize their earnings as soon as the market gets bullish again.

Resistance level is hard to break at 64,000$, but Bitcoin is trying. Once it does, it will be good news towards more increasement in price. Support seems strong at 63,000$, so there is little margin for Bitcoin to play with for now (only 1000$). I see doubt and attentiveness in the air for the next steps Bitcoin is going to take. There is a feeling of unstability dominating crypto market, as many interests are at stake right now. It's an once in a life opportunity for many investors to become millionaires, and for few millionaires to become billionaires through Bitcoin.

$weetne$$

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Quote from: pooya87 on April 09, 2024, 09:53:56 AM

The only thing that continues to worry me in this entire "cycle" is the worsening situation with the global economy. With the way they're printing money while increasing the interest rates they are going against all their own strategies since this causes both inflation and recession at the same time.

That means people will liquidate more of their assets (that includes selling bitcoin) to make ends meet as prices soar and also they'll have less money to invest. In other words inflation + recession means more sell pressure + less demand.

You make a good point but since we are not going to be experiencing that soon therefore the opportunity at our front to buy Bitcoin when the price is dumping we have to take full advantage off and then sell before the whole liquidation of assets including Bitcoin starts happening when the world economy begins to collapse. The federal government do not care about the economy because they shouldn't be doing what they are doing by printing more money when they know it will only have a bad repercussions on the economy. The government wants to make it all look like everything is going on fine with their administration but they do not have things under control, they do not want people to lose trust in them but they are destroying the economy of the world by printing more money which is just an unfortunate situation.

Abiky

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Quote from: rodskee on April 16, 2024, 06:49:14 AM

Few days before halving arrives yet ?

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

I thought Yesterday is recovery but nope, it falls back to 62k and there is a big chances that
the price will fall below 60k, is this possible to happen as the halving mostly brings bad falls for the whole market.

In the short term? Yes. But in the long term, BTC should be able to reach a new ATH. The current dip could be attributed to rising tensions in the Middle East. Market prices will dip, but they're expected to "pump" in the long run as the world heads into uncertainty. I think the ETFs are just the tip of the iceberg. Who knows? The crypto market behaves in many strange and bizarre ways. So we should expect the unexpected.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could eventually surpass Gold in terms of market cap. Buying and holding BTC now is the best decision to make. With Fiat currencies losing ground, I'm certain things will get better for Bitcoin and the whole crypto industry. The question is: Are you ready for the huge pump? Cheesy

Topic: Is the halving already priced in? (Read 737 times)