You should also take into account the fact that a large amount of BTC is in the possession of investors who have kept it for more than 5 years and bought it at significantly lower prices than is the case today, and considering that $100k is a very nice and round number, many have it as an exit point - especially those who dream of becoming millionaires and have at least 10 BTC at the moment.
It would therefore be logical to expect that the selling pressure will be much greater than before when a new big bull run starts, and we should not ignore institutional investors who will be looking for their opportunity for profit.
As for the halving and the price change, I don't believe that anything positive will happen right away - and maybe even a slight drop will happen, which will be precisely caused by your way of thinking. What I want to say is that too many people see the halving as some kind of magical trigger that automatically raises the price, but the matter is much more complicated.
Those who wait for the price of bitcoin to rise for a long time and who only want to make a profit will create price pressure. As you said, this can be overcome together with new investors.
100k is a dream for many people. This dream has been around for years and I wonder what might happen in the market when it comes true. When a price comes that many investors have been waiting for years for, there will be a lot of selling pressure. If the price reaches 100k, we can see a lot of selling and buying there. It will not be easy to pass 100k, but I think we will pass.
I agree with what you said about the halving. In addition, I can state that, as the halving approaches or after, I think there may be some movements in the market depending on the behavior of corporates.