Topic: Is the US economy going up or down? - page 2. (Read 3634 times)

The purpose of QE was to get people to take on more risks, which they have, as can been seen by the fact that asset prices have risen sharply since QE has started. I would also argue that both companies and people have borrowed money they otherwise would not have borrowed (or at least refinanced existing debt) as many companies have been borrowing money at record low interest rates and many consumers have been refinancing debt (the lower payments that results in refinancing can be used to purchase additional goods/services in the economy)

The excess money hasn't resulted in people and companies borrowing more, to take advantage of low interest rates. So the purpose of QE has been defeated, in a sense.

Most assets have not made their way to emerging markets, although a lot of extra money has found it's way here. The vast majority of the money is on bank balance sheets via excess reserves. Above that much of it has found it's way into stock and bond markets which is creating a potential bubble in the bond markets especially

It is a global asset bubble, not just the US. Most of the dollars that the US Fed has printed has found its way into emerging markets.

The effects of changes to monetary policy can take up to two years to be reflected in the economy and in inflation rates. The federal reserve is seeing signs that the economy is picking up at a rate enough to support higher interest rates, however they do not know for sure this is the case. If they raise interest rates now then they are guessing that the economy will be strong in ~2 years

Seems to me that the bubble is still being inflated.  It's just a matter of time that it bursts and this time will be even worse then before.  The day that happens bitcoin will soar!!!  Who knows when that will happen though.  My guess is within 2 years. 

Life is pretty good right now in the US economy at least by the numbers.  If your looking for a job like me you might think differently.

QE ending implies that the US economy is going up.

It is going up because of energetic. That "shale gas" that is forbidden to do in most of Europe, is pumping USA economy. Without it recovery after 2008 crysis would be much much harder if succeed at all.

Down in flames soon enough:

De-dollarizatiin globally by China, Russia, and other nations establishing their own trade agreements in anything but Dollars. Moves to kill the Petrodollar are all around, which is about the only thing that gives US currency any value at all. I don't put it past China to re-back their currency on the massive amount of gold they have sucked up over the last few years, and introduce the Petroyuan. If that happens the US is lost.

Massively, ridiculously large bubbles in assets, stocks, government debt, student debt, sub-prime auto debt, housing, basically everything, thanks to Federal Reserve QE pumping of the currency supply. Doing this has never worked in recorded history to correct a faltering economy, it just props it up until it collapses under its own weight.

Global economies are now so interconnected what affects them affects us too.

There no chance in hell the US economy will just magically be saved. The ultimate correction is coming, and it will be absolutely painful for anyone not prepared. I just hope my investments today in cryptocurrencies and metals help me hedge the fallout. Fiat currency is a liability.

The Chinese are having to do what the Western nations have been doing for the past seven years to keep its economy moving forward.

Lots of money is being thrown at so called 'Public works'.

Hmm maybe you read about that 3-4 months ago.
Still thinking China Economic Growing Up  this time ?

World Economic is not good at this time , its like a time bomb.
And that mean US economy will going down too , but not in massive scale.

Still look good. But the economy of China is coming up really fast.

The way things are looking QE will likely end up having to continue. Just before the 2012 election, QE was extended to make the stock market shoot up higher to help get president Obama reelected (most economists and onlookers were almost universally predicting that QE would not get extended because the fed is suppose to be an independent agency and extending QE at the time would strongly benefit Obama). I would suspect that something similar would happen this election cycle to help the liberals keep the senate (which will hopefully not work)

Let's be clear. I'm a trader and the first thing is you're looking for trouble asking on an internet forum for trading tips.

Here's my hypothesis:

- stock market in a topping out pattern for last 6 months.. markets usually top out when they stagnate at the end of a large advance. usually the break is sharp and swift

- entire advance since 2012 has been a false break out of the S&P, the channel runs from 2010-2012 until the break out. now we've got a retracement back into the channel and below it. that's gonna be a sharp and swift decline

- we've got some days coming up of 10-20% down moves in the S&P

- many many social signals of the S&P topping out are circulating. one is, the belief that "if everyone believes a bubble, its not a bubble". Try this: "if everyone believes that if everyone believes a bubble, its not a bubble, then it IS a bubble"

in short, its clear the economic recovery is a paper recovery with no fundamental change in people's wealth. get your short positions in place and look out below

TLDR;

Next few weeks gonna be interesting

It's easy to realise why things have been so screwed up when you see how much bad information people are force fed.

There is too much focus on compliance and not enough on innovation which leads to the mess we have.

If there was a time to 'dethrone the rich' it should have come six years ago. Sadly 'Occupy Wall St.' was a joke, from the beginning. The people involved had been fed such a hearty diet of obedience that they did not know how to rebel in the face of oppression and mistreatment.

End of QE in October=stronger dollar=deflation=economy turns down=new QE in 2015???

That sucks. I came from Greece. When the euro was implemented the price of everything seemed to skyrocket continuously.

It's hard for me to understand how we can fuck it up this badly for ourselves here in the united states. We have 300 million people in a gigantic country with good capabilities/minerals/strategic position.

People here could potentially become net producers for society and sustain themselves endlessly.

Even with climate change there will still be places suitable for agriculture. We have deserts and other places for all the wind power and solar. There is plenty of water (if we manage it correctly instead of spilling the majority of it onto grass and also evaporating it in the air in the process, (also spilling millions of gallons of it because someone pissed in it)).

We have huge forests, more good land than we know what to do with.


Perhaps we've left the corporations screw us over with no limit. The rich could be dethroned very easily, all we have to do is replace their stuff with our stuff. A new renaissance with 3-d printing coupled with ingenuity and knowledge to create working machines to replace anything. Where we choose wisely the corporations we deal with. Boycotting products that are created unethically and places that pay people bellow a minimum wage out of existence.

I see a lot of action taking place even now, but I don't know what to make of it. BTC is a step forward.

The banks inflated the economy with funny money last time around.

This time it's the Federal money that has inflated the economy.

Sit back and wait for the crash because it's coming.

Another indicator would be real wages (private sector especially) - which haven't risen.

That would be a real sign of a growing economy.

down in the mid/long run. and after that, up