According to Investopedia, a recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. The term is typically used to describe a cycle that goes on for six months or more and lasts at least two quarters. In light of the Commerce Department's announcement that GDP declined by 0.9% in the second quarter, a second consecutive quarter of contraction, many are declaring the U.S. economy in recession. But, is it really? I don't think it's that simple.
Topic: Is the US economy in recession? - page 4. (Read 646 times)
The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.
And both are right, one of the conditions of technical recessions (as not everybody agrees with the 2 quarters period) has been met while on the other hand there are different signs that economic activity is not really declining with more and more jobs being added and taken and with the US finally inches away from reaching pre covid levels of employment:
What are the core elements of a recession?
Unemployment, consumption expenditure, manufacturing, retail, and trade sales.
When they all go down, you clearly are in a recession.
Yes, we can say recession at this level is not severe because it's inflation that is fueling it. But, it becomes severe when other data signalling decline in economic activities.
The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.
And both are right, one of the conditions of technical recessions (as not everybody agrees with the 2 quarters period) has been met while on the other hand there are different signs that economic activity is not really declining with more and more jobs being added and taken and with the US finally inches away from reaching pre covid levels of employment:
What are the core elements of a recession?
Employment, consumption expenditure, manufacturing, retail, and trade sales.
When they all go down, you clearly are in a recession.
LE:
FixeD employment as it didn't make sense.
What are the core elements of a recession?
Inflation
Decrease GDP
Unstable economy
Unemployment
Increased Poverty
Natural disasters
Budget deficit
These are some of the elementary causes or determining factors to recession, when what you have on ground is unabke to meet uo with the needs demanded within a country after considering both the input and output of the natural resources and man power but still lacking far behind
How do we quantify a recession?
When there's a constant inflation and poverty levels increasing instead of decreasing while all the above mentioned determinant rrmain constant
Slow job growth in the private sector, low consumer spending, low wage increases, among other things.
Some of these are lagging indicators. You've seen hiring slow down, but job layoffs and unemployment won't happen contemporaneous to the GDP reports. The economy is generally slow moving unless there's market shock. Anyone suggesting that the U.S. economy is not in recession will point out these lagging indicators which will eventually catch up to capture the true state of the U.S. economy. They won't have these numbers to rely on for long.
Some of these are lagging indicators. You've seen hiring slow down, but job layoffs and unemployment won't happen contemporaneous to the GDP reports. The economy is generally slow moving unless there's market shock. Anyone suggesting that the U.S. economy is not in recession will point out these lagging indicators which will eventually catch up to capture the true state of the U.S. economy. They won't have these numbers to rely on for long.
Yes, I think the two negative consecutive GDP growth rate is a symptom of recession.
Slow job growth in the private sector, low consumer spending, low wage increases, among other things.
Some of these are lagging indicators. You've seen hiring slow down, but job layoffs and unemployment won't happen contemporaneous to the GDP reports. The economy is generally slow moving unless there's market shock. Anyone suggesting that the U.S. economy is not in recession will point out these lagging indicators which will eventually catch up to capture the true state of the U.S. economy. They won't have these numbers to rely on for long.
Some of these are lagging indicators. You've seen hiring slow down, but job layoffs and unemployment won't happen contemporaneous to the GDP reports. The economy is generally slow moving unless there's market shock. Anyone suggesting that the U.S. economy is not in recession will point out these lagging indicators which will eventually catch up to capture the true state of the U.S. economy. They won't have these numbers to rely on for long.
The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.
What are the core elements of a recession?
How do we quantify a recession?
What are the core elements of a recession?
How do we quantify a recession?
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