Is the US Stimulus check going to raise the price for bitcoin?

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Quote from: KonstantinosM on April 22, 2020, 09:56:07 PM

Many people need the money desperately, many however have kept their jobs, and will get a double boost of cash from tax returns + Stimulus check.

I think this will have a positive effect on the bitcoin price. Thoughts?

Sorry if this has been discussed before.

The bitcoin news media has everyone confused and celebrating on this unsustainable money printing labeled as a stimulus package. Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoin with only 21 million coins and a fixed issuance schedule that no one can manipulate for this reason.

Is this the type of stories they want us to hype instead of criticize?

Bitcoin May Get Massive Boost as Democrats Propose $3 Trillion in Extra Stimulus

On Tuesday, the House Democrats revealed a proposal to send stimulus checks worth up to $6,000 per family to help the economy grapple with the COVID-19 outbreak, which has unemployed more than 30 million Americans due to lockdown restrictions.

This new stimulus proposal is part of a $3 trillion relief package being proposed by the Democrats.

All this stimulus, investors say, is boosting the intrinsic value of Bitcoin and other decentralized cryptocurrencies.

Source https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/05/14/bitcoin-gets-massive-boost-democrats-propose-3-trillion-extra-stimulus/

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Jating on May 05, 2020, 04:32:43 PM

Maybe, because right after the news about the US stimulus package, the price slowly shots up, reaching as high as $9400-$9500. They FOMO right before the halving, so it is possible that those who have received it pour it in pushing the price.

it's also possible the stimulus checks were coincidental with the price increase, and that the price would have gone up anyway.

there have been plenty of surveys taken about what people are spending those checks on. bitcoin hasn't shown up on the radar at all, so while it technically may have had an effect, i assume the effect was tiny.

the technical resistance at $7.5k breaking and the buildup to the halving were probably much more significant.

Quote from: Jating on May 05, 2020, 04:32:43 PM

This is the closest that we can get as far as Coinbase goes: Data Suggests Some Americans May Be Buying Crypto With Stimulus Check.

that's a really misleading graph. how many people make $1200 deposits to coinbase that a 0.25% increase for one day is really meaningful? the reason brian armstrong didn't come out and give us absolute numbers is because the numbers are extremely small.

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Quote from: FanEagle on April 26, 2020, 02:12:34 PM

Maybe it did? I mean while we are discussing if it will or if it will not, the price actually went up and right now it is actually higher than before. So, I assume maybe it played a role? We can't know it of course, there is absolutely no way to know a data to see where the 1200 dollars went to and how much bitcoin has been bought with it, we can only speculate and not know the difference, however we can at least assume that some people might have.

Maybe, because right after the news about the US stimulus package, the price slowly shots up, reaching as high as $9400-$9500. They FOMO right before the halving, so it is possible that those who have received it pour it in pushing the price.

Quote from: FanEagle on April 26, 2020, 02:12:34 PM

Maybe there could be some data, not an inclusive one but we could ask coinbase to say if there has been an increase in the past month for 1200 dollars or so range depositing to peoples account, if there is a huge increase we could say that would be the reason, however there is no way coinbase would share that number.

This is the closest that we can get as far as Coinbase goes: Data Suggests Some Americans May Be Buying Crypto With Stimulus Check.

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Maybe it did? I mean while we are discussing if it will or if it will not, the price actually went up and right now it is actually higher than before. So, I assume maybe it played a role? We can't know it of course, there is absolutely no way to know a data to see where the 1200 dollars went to and how much bitcoin has been bought with it, we can only speculate and not know the difference, however we can at least assume that some people might have.

Maybe there could be some data, not an inclusive one but we could ask coinbase to say if there has been an increase in the past month for 1200 dollars or so range depositing to peoples account, if there is a huge increase we could say that would be the reason, however there is no way coinbase would share that number.

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I never really thought it would be like this. It's an unexpected event.

Bitcoin price going high even with the pandemic happening.
I saved my USDT to buy later on but I didn't catch the right train.
The stimulus check could have really made an effect to it.
But I will still be waiting for the price to come back to buy more bitcoin. I just hope I won't be late again.

exstasie

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Quote from: adaseb on April 26, 2020, 01:35:20 AM

In Canada they don't have this type of stimulus, they got some government programs to help however you can only apply to them if you lost your job due to covid19.

The Canadian stimulus payments (2,000 CAD per month for 4 months) are a lot more expansive than unemployment benefits. Anyone who is affected by the corona virus gets them. Not just layoffs but anyone who got sick, is in quarantine or self-isolation, taking care of someone who is sick, parents who need to stay home with their children because of closures, etc. Easy to game although yes, technically not as expansive as the US stimulus checks.

Quote from: adaseb on April 26, 2020, 01:35:20 AM

The stimulus cheques in USA were sent to pretty much everyone correct? Whether you lost your job or not. I think the only requirement was that you filed your 2018 or 2019 taxes.

That was only a requirement to get in the earliest round of direct deposits. I think anyone who has a Social Security number and is not an adult dependent is eligible but it may take a while to receive the money.

Quote from: adaseb on April 26, 2020, 01:35:20 AM

This doesn't make sense because they would of been better off just sending it to the people that need it. The people who lost their jobs and need money. For the ones who are still working and spending their stimulus on big screen TVs doesn't make sense. In the long run it hurts the economy more due to massive inflation.

The direct stimulus payments are not just for relief. It's to get everyone to spend money to prop the economy up. Plus I think there is a general acknowledgment that setting up some bureaucratic relief program would delay payments for many more weeks.

pooya87

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Quote from: STT on April 25, 2020, 07:54:46 PM

Indirectly its certain to help BTC by diluting the worth of Dollar in ratio to Bitcoin. Directly only a small amount goes and stays with BTC I think .

if that's the cause then there is a lot more reasons that would contribute to devaluation of Dollar since they are now injecting a ton of it into the stock market and trying so hard to keep it from an enormous crash. that's not to mention the money they print for bailouts and more to come.

adaseb

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In Canada they don't have this type of stimulus, they got some government programs to help however you can only apply to them if you lost your job due to covid19. The stimulus cheques in USA were sent to pretty much everyone correct? Whether you lost your job or not. I think the only requirement was that you filed your 2018 or 2019 taxes.

This doesn't make sense because they would of been better off just sending it to the people that need it. The people who lost their jobs and need money. For the ones who are still working and spending their stimulus on big screen TVs doesn't make sense. In the long run it hurts the economy more due to massive inflation.

STT

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Indirectly its certain to help BTC by diluting the worth of Dollar in ratio to Bitcoin. Directly only a small amount goes and stays with BTC I think .

Theres a clear trend ongoing since the bottom, I wasnt sure if it had faltered at all but theres more sense in presuming it will continue until a much harder reset then any blip since mid March.

Good till end May probably, if it closed below 7000 on weekly bar that'd be new.

exstasie

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Quote from: gentlemand on April 24, 2020, 07:57:16 AM

Quote from: el kaka22 on April 24, 2020, 02:04:32 AM

I was thinking they would actually think about spending their money on grocery and bills and stuff like that just so they could potentially survive a bit long however looking at the situation right now, people are buying stuff like TV's or other electronic stuff, and maybe even phones and so forth, which tells me maybe people weren't doing as bad as I imagined and obviously not as bad as government imagined.

That's why so many people are broke their whole lives. They keep buying tat they don't need and wonder why they never get ahead. Many will have thought 'hey, free money. Let's splurge.'

Shortsighted or not, that's actually the point of direct stimulus payments: they want recipients to quickly inject cash into the economy, to prevent deflation and keep businesses afloat. That was the motivation behind expanding payments to Social Security and disability recipients, because low/fixed income people are most likely to immediately spend it rather than stick it in the bank.

While headlines are hyping up the non-essential purchases, surveys show most people are spending the check on day-to-day expenses or saving it. 25% are buying food and groceries, 31% are saving it, 18% are paying bills, 11% are using it towards mortgage and rent. https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-are-spending-their-stimulus-checks-on-food-video-games-2020-4

gentlemand

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Quote from: el kaka22 on April 24, 2020, 02:04:32 AM

I was thinking they would actually think about spending their money on grocery and bills and stuff like that just so they could potentially survive a bit long however looking at the situation right now, people are buying stuff like TV's or other electronic stuff, and maybe even phones and so forth, which tells me maybe people weren't doing as bad as I imagined and obviously not as bad as government imagined.

That's why so many people are broke their whole lives. They keep buying tat they don't need and wonder why they never get ahead. Many will have thought 'hey, free money. Let's splurge.' I've known many people who were incapable of looking beyond their next shot of instant gratification and they would've done the exact same thing given the opportunity.

Unfortunately this time around buying crap might come back and bite them hard in a few weeks when it becomes clear the world is not going straight back to normal and whatever jobs they had to keep their heads just above water is no longer there.

I'd only put the stimulus into BTC if I was fully secure via other channels and knew I'd be fine for months or years no matter what.

el kaka22

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I have seen people spend their money on some stupid stuff so I am not entirely sure about what they will or will not do with it anymore.

I was thinking they would actually think about spending their money on grocery and bills and stuff like that just so they could potentially survive a bit long however looking at the situation right now, people are buying stuff like TV's or other electronic stuff, and maybe even phones and so forth, which tells me maybe people weren't doing as bad as I imagined and obviously not as bad as government imagined. That 1200 helped a lot of people I agree with that however I think there were a lot of people who didn't needed that got it as well, which could potentially buy bitcoins if they are smart enough, don't know if many will though.

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Quote from: KonstantinosM on April 23, 2020, 09:30:33 PM

I accept the risk of the price going down, but it looks like a favorable gamble to me. Halving + Extra money in circulation

Well, the risk is there and are always be. But, if you're looking forward to such opportunity to buy because of this significant signs and event, well I guess the idea ain't bad.
That'll also depends on how the people would spend those stimulus checks, which is quite a big amount. Let's say people would also drop half or $500 into Bitcoin from their checks, then that would be a win situation on your edge.
Actually, I like your analogy, and seems like it's synching with the current price movements at this moment.

KonstantinosM

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Well, I'm going to tell my personal story here. I didn't have any extra to drop into BTC, but with my stimulus check I decided to drop in another $500.

My electronic transfer to an exchange took a while, and I didn't take long to decide to drop it in, because I was thinking other people will rush to buy and I won't be able to get a good price. Closely to as soon as the money showed up to an exchange I made the decision to just do one big transaction.

I locked in 7100, and then got the bitcoin into my own wallet to add to my stack of sats.

I accept the risk of the price going down, but it looks like a favorable gamble to me. Halving + Extra money in circulation

thesmallgod

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Quote from: BrewMaster on April 23, 2020, 02:06:17 PM

i say it isn't but when i look around i see a lot of people are talking about this for no reason. and whenever people stick to something like this and build it up a lot in their heads they end up also acting on it and then we see the price move. we have seen this many times, usually they are more noticeable when they cause a drop but they exist during rises too.
so the real question in my opinion, is how hyped up this news is going to get in bitcoin market? because if it gets big enough we can see at least a mini rally.

I understand that such news raise potentials of individual going to buy bitcoin which also increased the price but it has also be confirmed that individuals, especially from the United state, are buying bitcoin via coinbase anytime the stimulus package is disbursed. Cointelegraph also testified to this

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Quote from: exstasie on April 23, 2020, 02:42:46 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on April 23, 2020, 04:43:42 AM

Imagine now if that 400B monthly stimulus sees even 1% go into crypto. 4B a month for the next six months if the EMP Act gets greenlighted.

What are you referring to? "EMP Act?" I don't see anything about that in the news. I heard some House Democrats were talking about $2,000/month payments but I'm skeptical anything like that will ever pass.

Yup. That's the one. Emergency Money for the People Act. Maybe 2 weeks ago? Or last week? It's all a blur to me now when it comes to stimulus packages.

It's never going to happen of course, as it'll more than double their monthly spending. But hey, since they're printing money already...

exstasie

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Quote from: gentlemand on April 23, 2020, 01:40:36 PM

One Bitmex rape wick has more effect on the market than all of this but it'll be interesting to get a sense of how many people did take the plunge.

Agreed. Direct stimulus (especially if it were recurring) would prop all markets up, but I don't think it would outweigh the carnage from March.

The minority who are financially comfortable, working from home and thinking things will return to normalcy next month, don't realize the economy has collapsed for most everyone else. Many are greatly underestimating the economic toll of this crash. Millions of investors have been washed out of the market, and millions more prospective investors are no longer in a position to invest. That applies to BTC too.

Quote from: buwaytress on April 23, 2020, 04:43:42 AM

Imagine now if that 400B monthly stimulus sees even 1% go into crypto. 4B a month for the next six months if the EMP Act gets greenlighted.

What are you referring to? "EMP Act?" I don't see anything about that in the news. I heard some House Democrats were talking about $2,000/month payments but I'm skeptical anything like that will ever pass.

BrewMaster

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i say it isn't but when i look around i see a lot of people are talking about this for no reason. and whenever people stick to something like this and build it up a lot in their heads they end up also acting on it and then we see the price move. we have seen this many times, usually they are more noticeable when they cause a drop but they exist during rises too.
so the real question in my opinion, is how hyped up this news is going to get in bitcoin market? because if it gets big enough we can see at least a mini rally.

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on April 23, 2020, 11:01:20 AM

It'll be very interesting indeed to see where bitcoin is, say, a year from now when presumably the outbreak will have blown over and things have gotten back to a semblance of normal.

It will indeed. I think it would be heavily dependent on how Bitcoin acts during these crisis period (however long it lasts). If it's price holds out over time or increases, people would be looking to get into it when all this is over and during a period where a couple of nations would likely be experiencing inflation and possibly recession.
But if the market takes a hard hit in the coming months, it would change the general sentiments towards it.

As regards the OP, if the stimulus checks actually does cause a spike in the price, would it be enough to sustain a rally, considering that not every nation received stimulus packages and amount of interested investors would be relatively reduces globally.

gentlemand

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One Bitmex rape wick has more effect on the market than all of this but it'll be interesting to get a sense of how many people did take the plunge. If it were me I probably would do just for the comedy value.

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