Topic: Is there a way to actually get to know the real price of Bitcoin? - page 2. (Read 299 times)

Not on a big enough exchange. Anyone even trying to do so now with the impossible size of the orders will be at best enjoying a few minutes of desired price. The cost of doing that to me is the same consideration as the cost of 51% attack... no one has the financial resources to pull it off. AND even if they did, the rest of the market/players will pull back so quickly and regroup.

If the exchange is small enough to try price manipulation, then it's probably not worth it.

Its is not actually an easy task to manipulate the price, it comes with huge price tag as well for example currently bitcoin is trading at 42K so if a whale wants to increase it upto 45K then he needs to create multiple sell orders gradually until that price reaches so that people will be manipulated meanwhile any user can take that into an advantage as well.

You will never get the right price for Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin is completely decentralized. Bitcoin prices vary slightly on different exchanges. However, you can visit different exchange sites and find out the exact price.

Well, people had to wish that they would know the real price of Bitcoin years from now. But unfortunately, the market hasn't been designed like that, and even using all of these tools that you have mentioned, that still it gives no way to point out the real price of Bitcoin instead, we are still predicting it.

We can't change the volatile nature of the market as that was supposed to be. Whether we like it or not, that remains unpredictable, or else, we, therefore, say that manipulation wins over it.  

I have talked about a scenario that mathematically can be responsible for pumping.

and to quote further "50k USD isn't big enough"

You are contradicting yourself.
How come the buy order will be big enough to be completed "exactly at the moment" and at the same time,the order will not be completed?This doesn't make any sense.

Let's say that a crypto whale creates a buy order for 50K USD for a relatively big amount go BTC.
The buy order will be executed immediately,because everyone would want to sell at a price,that is way above the current Bitcoin market price(42K).That's instant profit.
In the end,the crypto whale will just buy a bunch of overpriced Bitcoins.This might pump the Bitcoin price for a while,but the price pump will be weak and temporary,because a FOMO phase cannot be created by a single  buy order.

How I wish there will be something that could predict the Bitcoin's price and I owned it. Only me.  There is no need for speculations and prediction anymore. The sad part is there is none and if it really exist then we won't be talking here anymore. Consider it just another coin manipulated by someone else or simply a stable coin.
Would you still buy it? Will it still be a new type of asset? Or you could just save your money in your piggy bank because it's just the same, probably better.

This is why you can't see the real-time supply and demand via blockchain because you can't see what's going on inside the exchanges as they have hot and cold wallets.
You may see the in and out transactions in btc addresses but you have no idea when they actually trade it inside the exchange platform. So the aim of knowing the actual supply and demand is not possible. You will only base it from what's going on in the market. And to determine the actual figure will only be futile move and a waste of time.

Movements in the supply and demand can only be calculated after the fact, and more importantly you will not get the full picture.

When you buy or sell any coin in the exchange this does not generate a transaction on any blockchain, the exchange just update their database about the size of your holdings and that is it, and since most traders and investors keep their money at exchanges for the majority of the time then you will not see how the demand and supply changes inside exchanges on the data reflected on the blockchain.

No. This is currenty physically impossible. You would need live info on everybody including their mind processes. How would you know if some really rich guy wants to buy Bitcoin during the next few minutes? You can't. Not unless he tells someone.

The closest you can get to predicting the price is looking at the same chart that everyone else is looking at and well....Try your luck.

Although personally, for me, it isnt luck. Its an investment. If I can take a profit, I take a profit. If its a bad trade, I won't take any losses by selling. And it stays a long term investment.

predict the price? .. no

know the floor/roof of value. yes

take the hashrate in terrahash(exahash*1m).. divide it by 110
then you know how many current gen asics are mining it efficiently.
multiply that number by $12000 to give you the 2 year ROI of hardware cost of efficient asic.
divide that by 105,000 blocks(2 years) then divide that by 6.25 coins. and you got the hardware cost per btc.

then. using the same 'how many current gen asics' multiply that by 3.25
and you have the hourly electric use. divide that by 6 then divide again by 6.25 and you have the power consumption per btc.
(efficient asic: 110thash 3.25kw $12k hardware 2 year lifespan)

now to multiply that by 0.04 for cheapest mining electric rate.. (cheap electric countries like asia/eastern europe)
add on the hardware cost and you have the 'floor' base value.

now take the 'power consumption per btc' again and multiply it by 0.38 for the expensive mining electric rate
and add on the hardware cost per btc and you have the 'roof' top value (expensive electric countries like remote islands, japan, germany)

the PRICE will pretty much always sit somewhere between the floor and the roof.
no one can predict where about between the floor and roof it will be at any time.. but what you can see is if the price is nearer the floor, then its a good deal.. if its nearer the roof then its premium

if done right. .. use example hashrate of 190exa
you should get floor of $37572.29437
you should get roof of $88469.26407

Bitcoin is a speculative asset so it's difficult to determine its real value. Fortunately, there are inputs to mine Bitcoin and you can use those inputs to estimate Bitcoin price.
ASIC cost
Electricity cost
Maintenance cost
Internet connection cost
etc.
Bitcoin has its intrinsic value and is not created from thin air.

Good luck taking into account the likes of market sentiment and human emotion into the calculation; which are unarguably the most important factors when talking about factors that decides the price of a certain asset.

Bitcoin eliminated needing a third party to transfer, store or generally use your own money. And it does that perfectly.

First of all exchanges have nothing to do with bitcoin and elimination of third parties as I explained above.
Secondly exchanges don't decide the price, the people who trade on those exchanges do.

Altcoins are all manipulation but bitcoin manipulation is small and is shrinking as the market grows.

It is nearly impossible for the exchange to create anything fake that affects the market. Lets say the exchange places fake buy orders, it is possible that people sell into those buy orders that means the exchange has to pay them fiat so it costs them money and you can no longer call the order "fake" if they did pay money!

Another thing that happens is that the whale sells the bitcoins he has but the price doesn't go down and he loses money. For example last week a lot of whales did that trying to prevent the price from rising above $40k and lost millions of dollars.

It is a speculative asset and like any other speculative asset, it is bound to go up and down. Bitcoin was created with the idea of an alternative to fiat but it gained its own uses with time. How you are going to use it, is your choice though.

That is a big assumption to make. Do you have proof of the same? If not, then dont mention such things but keep your ramblings to yourself.

The price of 1BTC is always 1BTC. But that would be the prevalent statement if there was no fiat in this world. The only way to buy/sell bitcoin is using fiat and hence the price of bitcoin comes in USD or others. It is therefore not possible to predict the price, just like you cannot predict when the jackpot of a casino would be fulfilled.

Price depends on supply and demand, but you have something in mind, please do come up with it, I would be happy to see how it works.

Exchanges is needed to make transcation organized as well thet are the one’s who gives the amount or money we needed in return. It will depend on us on how good we are to do transactions. Some prefers P2P for lesser fees pr just thru exchanging their preferred token. Though for safer transactions we opt to choose known exchanges and for that we are required to pay for their system. If we prefer a lesser amount or no fees then p2p is what we need but it is risky.

Exchanges will not usually only provide a "last" price with regards to the price on their exchange, but will rather provide a series of bid prices in which their customers are willing to buy bitcoin, along with the amounts they are willing to buy, along with offer prices, along with the amounts they are willing to sell.

If you trust an exchange that provides the above information, you can use the above information to determine your own measure of a price of any coin you own or that you want to buy.
It is not possible to actually determine the actual hash rate. It is also not possible to determine the actual amount of electricity consumed to mine blocks (not is it possible to determine the cost of electricity to mine a single block).

If you ignore the above, there is still the issue that there have historically been limiting factors that prevented the difficulty (which is a general summation of the above measurements) from rising as quickly as the price. One reason for this is that there are limits as to how many miners can be manufactured in a given time period.

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If you currently hold coin, the value of the coin is the amount someone is wiling to pay for your coin at any given point in time.

I assume that supply and demand can be very accurately calculated by Blockchain data. And supply and demand can be calculated using Blockchain data by checking the active and inactive wallets and how much bitcoin flowed in from new orders. it can easily be manipulated by third-party exchanges but cannot be done by blockchain. A lot of exchanges were involved in spoofing and wash trading and who know at the time of you reading this, there is an exchange out there doing spoofing.

A Miner's average revenue and the Bitcoin network difficulty have a direct/indirect relation to the long-term value of Bitcoin to some extent.

When someone put buy or sell order, it's not actually a fake order if the order got filled... also when a whale put large amount buy order it's not always dump the price and vice versa.

Exchanges aren't manipulated the price, it will depends on supply and demand created by people. Back in few months ago when Bitcoin price still around $60K, India is banning Bitcoin and it caused panic selling on their local exchanges (e.g. WazirX) it ever touch $40K even though the international exchanges price still $60K.

The mining revenues and electricity consumed is depends on different factors and where you live, also hashrate and timestamp block doesn't affect Bitcoin price. I'd say the real price of Bitcoin is what you actually see in CMC, Coingecko, or top exchanges.

The "third party" that's eliminated is the requirement to have your funds held by a custodial company; because with Bitcoin, you can just hold it using a non-custodial wallet and no one can take away the coins from you. It's nowhere near realistic to expect that literally every single "third party" platform will be eliminated. That's just wishful thinking. We're always going to need third party platforms here and there; and what matters most is that you're not required to use them.


Look. There's definitely manipulations in the market, but that's with ANY other market. And it seems like you seem to think that these types of manipulation maneuvers are something that's guaranteed to work well for the "wHaLe" or something, because it's definitely not. It can definitely work well for them, but it could just as easily go south for them.


Seriously dude, imagine if we could lmao.


Demand is what will dictate bitcoin's price, not on-chain metrics. This should be pretty obvious.